Leavers want an election NOW because they are trying to run out the clock and plunge UK into no-deal-hardest-Brexit that people didn’t vote for.

We can hope

No, you can hope.

you think I'm alone in that wish? lol.

This may have been discussed, if so, let me know!

How can Parliament pass a bill that states there cannot be a no deal Brexit, when it is not entirely up to Britain? EU can refuse an extension, and then doesn't a no deal Brexit occur?

Was this in the bill? US media is not reporting the details that well. Just the theater.

You are correct. The bill forces the PM to ask the EU for an extension and then to accept whatever extension the EU offers, whatever its length and conditions, unless parliament votes not to within two days.

It doesn't, and cannot, force the EU to offer anything.

So, basically, the EU can ask for anything, including taxes to remain, how Ireland border will be decided, and the Parliament has two days to agree, and if they don't, the EU counter, just happens?

Not quite. By default the the offer will be accepted, parliament has two days to reject it. There could be further requests/offers after that but it's not part of the current bill.

It's very unlikely the EU would put anything about a future deal in the offer. There isn't time and this isn't the place for it. Any conditions are likely to be about trying to force some progress during the extension period

EU will just shrug and say sure. You want an indefinite extension while we are at this?

So, EU is just going to let Britain have new elections and sit pat?

Seems kind of passive.

EU wants status quo?

Not much EU can do if the UK is about to have a GE.

Yes EU prefers us to remain.

Why doesn't EU push the issue? Just because they understand British politics is completely incompetent and leave will never happen? And meanwhile Britain loses seats in EU elections?

There is a non zero chance EU just grants an unilateral indefinite extension. What’s UK going to do then?

Whole thing is a joke. All the cards are face up and there are no more streets to come. But Boris is still arguing UK should try bluffing the EU.

Boris played his hand. Lost. Now what? Extend till elections? Or EU plays its hand? And what hand does EU play? Interested, Girzly, what EU does now.

I mean, I'm not British. But, Nigel Farage or Corbyn is next PM if Boris doesn't find a compromise, no?

EU just waits and grants extensions as UK asks for them.

And if UK self imposes a deadline, EU just watches UK implode and ask for another extension after another political crisis.

They can't. All 28 have to agree an extension or it doesn't exist.

Most unlikely it goes that way. Most likely is that Boris will get his election on ~15th or he will resign rather than ask for an extension.

Resignation sounds more dramatic than it is because he will still be leader of the tories with an election round the corner while retaining his 'high ground' of refusing to ask for an extension. There's risks to this but it's not that unattractive to him.

Ken Clarke is a fair bet for next pm. Farage has ~no chance.

What will Ken Clarke do as the next PM?

Why is he a fair bet, is a price a million to one or something?

There is not that much incentive to push. No deal is a very bad outcome for everyone involved. They have established that the current deal will stand and left the rest in UK hands.

A lot of Brexiteers are probably salivating at the idea of an EU that pushes. It would allow them to sell "no deal" as standing up to outside pressure, instead of the farce of their own making that it really is. A deal that would satisfy what Brexiteers want do not exist and will never exist, not because the EU is unreasonable, but because a deal can't deliver the benefits of full membership.

What you're seeing is political musical chairs. Very few are willing to be seen as the person who accepted terms.

Hypothetically, how much influence could UK Brexiteer EMPs have in trying to self-veto an extension?

none. all the important stuff is decided by the member countries in the council

Hypothetically at least that's incorrect as the EU parliament has the power to veto the withdrawal agreement. Afaik that veto power is at the end of the process and the EU parliament could, at least in principle, change it's view depending on the extensions i.e. the EU parliament could hold the view that it's 'now or never'.

In fact the EU parliament had been reelected during the extensions so it's view will have changed somewhat. In practice it still seems clear they would not veto the WA as it stands and that that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Looks like it's 16-1 which is quite attractive but don't go all jalfrezi on me. it was just a turn of phrase.


It would be a temporary government who's main role was to ask for the extension. However it's quite possible that it would preside over a deal being done. For reasons no-one seems to quite understand May's withdrawal agreement is back on the table for a vote (the Kinnock amendment)