Food shortages predicted by the government's leaked report might not reach the 50M deaths caused by Mao's starvation, but life expectancies of the poorest will plummet and many will die earlier than they would otherwise.

I read 'reduction in variety' - did it definitely also say absolute shortages?

Yes. Food and fuel shortages.

false.

Does little england really think it will be ok on its own? I hope so. Indyref2 will be a landslide.

A landslide? lol

Brexit in GIF format (England is the car):

"England" shows you don't really understand anything here.

I understand just enough to know ENG is ***** themselves.

The economic illiteracy behind Brexit is exactly the same stuff that is behind Scottish independence. Both are terrible ideas.

It's a few magnitudes worse.

It's almost like neither brexit or Scottish Independence are anything to do with economics.

Who da thought?

I actually respect people more if they admit they want Brexit or Scottish independence no matter what the economic result is I have a huge issue with those who lie and misinform and claim the economics support them though (admittedly I know far more about the economics re Scottish indy than I do on Brexit though).

I agree.

Trouble is nearly everyone does it and from both sides. Beyond some trivial stuff (which people generally agree on) the economic arguments simply cannot support anything like the certainty required or expressed by most people.

I'd abandon the remain camp if there was a sufficiently strong economic against remain. The trouble is not only do I not know of any such argument, I don't believe any such argument can exist. Same for leave.

With regards to indy they can definitely give a very good idea of the outcome though, that's why since 2014 there has been a concerted effort to discredit the Scottish Government accounts by many on the indy side. They know what the figures show and they know the implications so the only way to counter them is to attempt to discredit them. And of course that's not even half the story in terms of the economic **** storm that would follow.

Sure people will lie about that in their own interests but economically that's such a short term thing and you will get pretty much any vaguely reasonable person on both sides to accept that there's a big short term cost to splitting (smaller if the UK doesn't leave the EU).

Assuming we have left the EU then the economic future of Scotland outside the UK but presumably rejoining the EU vs staying in the UK is unknowable.

It is knowable. I'll just give the basics here and ignore all the disadvantages of having no central bank, capital flight, new currency etc to avoid a lengthy reply.

1) Scotland's total spend is £75.3bn but revenue is £62.7bn. The deficit of £12.6bn which is covered by the pooling and sharing of resources etc within the UK would stop immediately and result in pretty massive austerity, way beyond anything the UK has faced in recent years.

2) For some reason many Brexit remainers in England seem to think Scotland would be better off leaving and joining the EU when what they're advocating is worse than Brexit, i.e. Scotland leaves it's biggest trading partner by far (60% exports are to the rest of the UK) to join a very much less important trading partner (18% exports are to the EU). Isn't that the sort of stupidity that remainers are arguing against for the UK?
And just to be a bit clearer on this, in the past 15 years exports to the rest of the UK have increased by £20.3bn, those to the EU have increased by £3.5bn

It isn't knowable.

Over time political decisions and events will massively swamp the trade issues (which themselves may turn out out to be smaller than some expect as process and deals are worked out)

Also, if how the EU are handling things with Ireland is anything to go by, won't the EU insist Scotland has a hard border with England?

Lolz. Can't wait for Indyref2

This is just vague hand wavy waffle to be honest. Political decisions and events is meaningless without an attempt at some sort of explanation or detail. We’ve had various economic analysis over the years about it. Don’t you think there has been much discussion over the years about the political and spending decisions that would take place post Indy to address these massive issues? There haven’t been any that have been able to provide anything close to an answer other than austerity and massive unsustainable debt.

It is vague and hand wavy but that's not a criticism of it. We don't know what will happen in the future but we do knows for certain that there will be a future with decisions to be made in response that will make an immense difference both politically and economically.

The other problem with looking at things like the current trade position is that it's essentially looking at an optimisation of the past conditions. It's almost a tautology to say that any profound change will make that optimisation look a lot worse but that tells us very little about what the new optimisation will look like after the dramatic change.

both sides will if it's not a single market. you cant do a trade deal with the us and their ip rules on medicine and stuff if people in other countries can just drive trucks full of cheaper generic drugs across the border with nobody stopping them for example

We know much of the initial financial issues that will arise and these won’t disappear overnight. In fact the evidence is they will get worse. Re the trade conditions I’ve specifically looked at the past 15 years to show a trend rather than just the current picture. As we move further away from manufacturing it’s important to note that the largest sector of export to the rest of the UK is the service sector and that isn’t the case with our EU exports. A common language, currency etc means that the Uk is always going to be an easier target to export that too.

In saying the above its a bit disappointing that you’re unable to address the points made in any meaningful way at all. Your reply above is again just hand wavy waffle that is pointless in a political discussion thread. No reply would be better (and more honest)

I'm not sure what you want.

I agree there will be huge initial costs. Yes they will go on for some considerable time.

15 years is a deeper look at the current picture. If Scotland leave the UK then that picture get's shattered and a new trend will eventually emerge

Yes a common language and currency help a lot.

I doubt we disagree at all on the short term but if you're degree of certainty doesn't diminish as time passes then we're going to diverge. I'm sorry I can't make up what is going to happen in the future but the reality is that any convictions about how the economies will go have to get considerably weaker as we project further ahead.

They are nothing to do with economics? The things I learn on here.