Quote:
Originally Posted by losboy
Please comment on the following scenario that was debated yesterday by a neighborhood political group.
Today is November 4th, 2020. The election is finally over and Biden has handed Trump a McGovern like electoral defeat winning by over 200 delegates. He has also won the popular vote by almost 6 million. Although a decisive victory, Trump refuses to concede claiming election fraud and deep state interference with the count. He has warned for two weeks that the results would be tampered with. Trump supporters are shocked and furious. No way this is possible in their minds. They adopt the #resist as their own.
How do you see the next weeks and months playing out until the inauguration?
losboy:
The "McGovern style electoral defeat" you suppose is not likely. (Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Nixon won 49 of the 50 states in the 1972 election. Trump appears headed for defeat, but not by a landslide 49-1 margin.)
For the sake of argument, let's assume you are correct and Biden achieves a decisive victory. In that scenario, what are the odds Trump mounts a successful resistance refusing to relinquish power? The odds are slim to none and the reason is simple: Pure politics.
If Trump goes down, he won't go down alone - a substantial number of elected Republican pols, especially United States senators, are likely to go down with him. If three (or more) incumbent Republican senators are defeated - which looks increasingly likely at this point - the anger (and bitterness) directed against Trump will be palpable. There are already indications that endangered Republican senators - fully cognizant of negative polling numbers - are starting to turn on Trump. (Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy are meeting with Trump today in the White House trying to persuade him to change his mind about increasing funding for Coronavirus testing and relief efforts. Trump is adamantly opposed to increased funding for testing. It's nonsensical, but Trump thinks the reason infection rates and death counts are shooting up is because of increased testing.)
So there are already signs Republicans are starting to run out of patience with Trump. When election day arrives, if the GOP suffers massive losses at the polls, the blame will immediately shift to Trump. What used to be unquestioning fealty will quickly turn to undisguised anger and contempt. In the aftermath of devastating losses, (including the loss of both chambers of Congress), there will be little appetite for continued kissing of Trump's backside.
In such an environment, anything Trump might try to invalidate the election results or cling to power, will be quickly rebuffed by members of his own party. The one thing politicians hate is a loser - especially when that "loser" is a member of their own party. In the aftermath of a decisive Trump defeat, the impetus within the GOP will be to quickly forget Trump and vanquish the "Trump virus" from the GOP bloodstream.
Last edited by Former DJ; 07-20-2020 at 02:28 PM.