Please comment on the following scenario that was debated yesterday by a neighborhood political group.
Today is November 4th, 2020. The election is finally over and Biden has handed Trump a McGovern like electoral defeat winning by over 200 delegates. He has also won the popular vote by almost 6 million. Although a decisive victory, Trump refuses to concede claiming election fraud and deep state interference with the count. He has warned for two weeks that the results would be tampered with. Trump supporters are shocked and furious. No way this is possible in their minds. They adopt the #resist as their own.
How do you see the next weeks and months playing out until the inauguration?

1. He won't control the military after January 1, 2021, no order he gives will be lawful, and I would expect the CJCS to disregard it. 2. After that date, he is no longer the POTUS, and any attempt to interfere with the transition of power is tantamount to an attempt to overthrow the government. This gets a little more tricky because of the politicization within the DOJ, but I believe the FBI could and would arrest Trump if refused to leave. 3. Trump supporters will whine, but they won't take six city blocks in protest, they will just complain about the new imbecile.

He would need to file suit, present evidence and make arguments to the courts and then accept their ultimate verdict... like Bush-Gore in 2000.

The real answer is no one knows because the peaceful transition of power is just based upon norms. Norms Trump has been pissing all over while in office.

Let's say Trump wins PA, MI, and OH. Let's say Biden wins FL by <25,000 votes. Trump refuses to concede and goes on a massive tweetstorm claiming it was voter fraud and saying all the mail-in ballots in FL should be thrown out.

DeSantis and the GOP controlled FL legislature (who were also just voted out by <25k votes) say 'you're right Mr. President, we will not be counting any of our mail in ballots.' DeSantis & Co. decide to certify the Republican electors and send it in to Congress. Dems try to challenge in court. FL says **** off, elections are run by the state and our board of elections has determined there has been massive mail-in voter fraud. Good old William Barr goes, 'the Federal Government does not believe FL has violated any election laws here, the state runs their own elections in a manner of their choosing, disregarding all mail in ballots is fair and should not favor one side or the other, blah blah blah.'

What happens then? Who the **** knows, but the scary part is this all seems entirely plausible now.

I think Trump will go into exile.

Gore was the one that initially contested the FL vote in 2000. It wouldn't shock me if this election ends up in the courts, because A) circumstances are very unusual, B) the country is extremely divided, and C) voting methods and standards vary dramatically from place to place, with some having no paper trail at all.

Don't worry though, if it ends up in the courts and Trump ultimately loses, I expect he will abide by their decision and not loot the White House china & silverware on his way out.

That is a bad scenario. McGovern like thumping he walks away and starts a network.

If it is a 2000 Florida like scenario neither side will give up without a Supreme Court ruling.

In the end, I think Roberts would be the deciding vote just letting the result be what it was. Seems to be his MO.

I think a more interesting scenario is if Biden or Trump were to contract COVID in October. Would they delay the election?

Just in, the Supreme Court on a 9-0 decision said electorates are bound by the states popular vote and states can punish those that go rogue.

Setting the tone that the Supreme Court will probably rule in favor of the counted votes in court cases.

I saw this on one of the talk shows from a constitutionals expert.
Trump can declare a state of emergency and say the results are not valid. China interfered and than the supreme court would get involved. With the Bush/gore scenario they advised the results had to be validated by Dec 6th I believe and if not the house or senate weighs in with each state getting one vote ( one state gets two) which the republicans hold.

It will be a mess for sure but entertaining

Can only happen if Ukraine hacks the election to spite Russia. #nyashmyash2020

Protesting and tear gas? That would never happen! Oh wait.

The protesting in Washington DC has already recently happened. If Trump tries to declare fraud in the election, protesters will mass again, but in larger numbers. I was born in Washington, DC and raised in Maryland. I don't know if any of you have ever been to the White House grounds and nearby streets, but it wouldn't take much for protesters to overwhelm the fencing and security.

Burning down a CVS is one thing, but Trump is the type of trigger that could get the White House burned to the ground.

But here is the thing, let's not forget what has already happened. Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes. He then wasted tax payer dollars trying to prove that he actually won the popular vote. Trump, without any proof or evidence, has already tried to claim that 3 to 5 million illegal ballots were cast against him. Trump is an ass clown.

Bush v. Gore is not a perfect parallel.

Trump is an incumbent already entrenched in power. Trump has taken great pains to surround himself with loyalists. Trump is already laying the groundwork for contested results by preemptively claiming voter fraud. Trump also has state level politicians like DeSantis whose political futures hinge upon Trump's electoral success.

Most importantly, Gore was challenging the certified result and lost. In most doomsday scenarios, the GOP just says **** you and certifies the result they want. Again the legal challenge would be by the Dems, not Trump.

Keyword here is states. All they are really doing is putting the decision in the hands of the states. A state may punish a faithless elector, not a state must punish a faithless elector. A key distinction.

So again, if FL says we only removed the mail-in ballots, which were tainted with fraudulent ballots, who is going to say otherwise? Certainly not the federal government, and most likely neither will SCOTUS. There is no way SCOTUS is going to say 'no FL, you're lying.' The most they can determine is whether or not FL has a legal right to throw out all the mail-in ballots.

Alito/Thomas/Kavanaugh/Gorsuch will for sure point out that the Constitution gives the right to running elections to the states. I am not so sure about Roberts. Judging from the gerrymandering decision, it is entirely possible he bitches out and goes 'ensuring the integrity and overseeing elections is beyond the purview of this court blah blah blah.'

It's the first ruling. 9-0 is strong. I am sure every state that limits mail in voting will get a lawsuit from the state Democrat Party, and every state that expands mail in voting will get a lawsuit from the state Republican Party. There will be 50 lawsuits. This is beginning precedent that says the court will let the votes count the way they fall by state rules. You are right if Florida throws out a bunch of votes, there will be substantial legal fight.

In the end, if the election comes down to a few thousand votes in a few states, I don't see either party giving in easily.

Trump eats a lot of McDonalds.

Biden smells a lot of hair.

Next crew of Goldman Sachs thieves start stretching.

Generals flip a coin, heads Africa, tails South America.

About 1190 veterans commit suicide.

Americans get fatter.

Racism dies.

Our shared love of Amazon, Walmart, and Costco brings everyone together.

Hillary breathes a sign of relief.

All of my guns get reported stolen.

Smudger:

At their ages (both over 70) there's a 50-50 chance contracting the Covid-19 virus could prove fatal.

The speculation regarding Trump "starting a network" is more interesting. Trump has already uttered public comments recommending that his Twitter followers tune in and listen to the [OANN?] cable channel. (He supposedly made these comments after [apparently] being miffed that the FNC wasn't being sufficiently supportive of him.) His son Erik has reportedly been involved in informal discussions with the owners of OANN about a possible role for his father after dad leaves the White House. (There's even speculation that Trump might be thinking in terms of trying to buy out OANN and make it his own media empire.) Whether or not OANN wants Trump as part of their organization post White House is a good question. So far, to the best of my knowledge, they have not indicated - or made any positive comment - along those lines.

It will be interesting seeing how Rupert Murdoch and the folks at the Fox News Channel respond to any public announcement of Trump becoming part of the OANN broadcast network since OANN will be in direct competition for Fox viewers. I've never heard or seen OANN, but they are supposed to be a [hard right] alternative media organization. If that's accurate, it would be popcorn time watching Fox News going to war with OANN.

Because he's classy ?

very odd conversation you're having...

I don't think anyone could make a formal offer to Trump until he loses. Would look like he knows he is going to lose. But, as far as Republican News outlets, Trump could start his own or partner with whoever he felt best.

OAN isn't everywhere, so that would go against Trump's ego. I don't see him being a host, but getting an ownership stake for his brand use.

More interesting if you narrowed this to losing Florida by like 500 votes and we get in a Gore/Bush situation.

6 million votes and a landslide loss? SCOTUS will immediately confirm the results and Trump will be escorted out.

Even in a Gore/Bush situation where they might as well have settled it with a coin toss, SCOTUS under Roberts would confirm the result and Trump would be escorted out.

I agree with you Grizy, but the wrinkle they are throwing at this, if the state electoral board of Florida throws out votes for whatever reason, would the court rule in favor of raw totals or the tally the state electoral board went with?

I don't really know where Roberts would rule on that.

The polling indicates that Trump will again lose the popular vote. He lost the popular to Hillary by about 3 million votes. The Biden polling would seem to indicate that Trump would lose the popular vote by about 6 million votes like grizy just stated. But because of covid-19 fears of going out in public and social distancing, I think Trump will lose the popular vote by only about 4 million votes.

I like grizy's "escorted out" phrase. The Bush/Gore affair came down to a single state. But if Trump needs to contest the results in multiple states, then he will be escorted out. For example, if Trump loses by more than Florida's 28 electoral votes and Trump needs to also contest the results in Arizona or something, then that type of parlay is going to not be taken seriously.

I think we've seen enough now to make a guess at the finale of Trump Season 4:

• ep 1: Continue to insist mail in ballots will be fraudulent with no supporting evidence.

• ep 2: Insist that states open and suppress the COVID numbers so people don't have an 'excuse' to mail in votes

• ep 3: Install a henchman as Postmaster General. Ensure that the mail gets bogged down.

• ep 4: Refuse to commit to accepting election results.


Finale: Hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots get delivered "late" after election day due to high volume and new Post Office policies. DeSantis gets crushed in FL, but claims mail in ballot fraud and throws out all mail in ballots. That swings it enough for him to declare himself the winner, certify the GOP electors for Trump, and send it in to Congress. Due to COVID and late ballots, many races end up much closer. Trump argues ALL mail in ballots should be thrown out and refuses to concede. Trump tries to convince other red states to throw out their mail in ballots. Chaos ensues, rioting on the streets of every major city.

Someone please tell me I'm wrong/being paranoid. This **** is seriously giving me anxiety. I'm going to Costco to stock up on all the Spam and toilet paper this Saturday.

The scenario in the OP is not impossible. And I would expect a quick ruling from the SCOTUS in favor of Biden, followed by something like what itshot describes above.

If Trump signaled that he planned to remain in office notwithstanding the court ruling, the Secret Service, the FBI, and the military likely would tell Trump in private that he did not have their support for staying in office. Those institutions have no interest in going down with Trump.

At that point, Trump would have no choice but to leave or be arrested. And faced with that choice, I'm sure he would leave.

Why do people think Trump actually wants to keep doing this? His life has been a disaster for almost 4 years.

Maybe he keeps up the charade on Twitter after the election, but he's gotta be looking forward to getting back into a world where millions of people aren't bitching at and about him 24 hours a day.

I'll be glad when this is all over, but not at how it went down. I can't imagine being one of the lifers in the Republican party who have been in permanent crisis mode since Nov 2016.

Whoever said that the Trump supporters will complain for a little bit and then get over it is correct. Hopefully they give the dems a little taste of their own medicine, but I highly doubt we'll be seeing goon squads taking over public land and calling it Trumpville. As always, Republicans generally have more productive things to do with their lives when they're allowed to do them.

Trump wouldn't have the support of anyone even remotely useful in the even that he loses the election. The other adults in the room have to want this to be over just as much as people like me.

LOL. "Sure Trump has been the most corrupt president in modern history, but it's very important to me that Republicans show Dems how annoying we thought their protesting of this was"

Also that **** already happened multiple times, poor Y'all Qaeda being so quickly forgotten by their cheerleaders

Oh? Because most "adults in the room" on your side seem like they're continuing to donate millions of dollars to Trump and earnestly attempting to get him reelected. Those "adults in the room" could all end this if they wanted, seems like you're just making up a wet dream where conservative "adults" aren't as morally bankrupt as their Dear Leader who you so wish would just go away quietly (spoiler: they are all morally bankrupt, conservatism is rotten to its core).