The main demographic where someone like Haley would outperform Trump is college educated women. That group tends to place a lot of value on abortion rights and treating women respectfully, which obviously are areas where Trump rates poorly. Unsurprisingly, that demographic has been a real drag on Trump's electability.

I learned recently that the gender gap mostly went in the opposite direction prior to 1980, which was somewhat surprising to me.

I don't know about the mid terms, but the statistics I cited for the last four presidential elections are correct. Just google "Roper presidential election [YEAR]."

I was a big fan of Newsom 6-7 years ago and thought he was a better candidate than Biden and thought he may run. He is a great politician that looks and speaks well but his record in California may hurt him in a general.

I agree with you on your bottom line but would add in my Bottom Line

I think the Democrats would win if someone either than Biden was on the ballot

Trumps not going to quierwky go away if Haley wins the nomination. He’ll be spreading all sorts of nonsense about how she committed crimes to steal it from him.

spooner is heavily invested in the Michelle Obama dem nominee narrative

11/21/23

1/16/24

Hope we elect some old guy as president

I feel woman will be the deciding factor on who’s elected .

well, guess who votes - old people

Republicans seem dead set on making Taylor Swift out to be political opposition which is hilarious.

Many in her fan base are borderline cultists. As dumb as it sounds, this is how you get many young women to vote left (as if they needed more motivation)

funny you mention that, last night i came across some random stuff poking fun at idiots who were posting "we need to promoto bobert as the answer to taylor swift" and I thought they were just finding outlier idiots and poking fun at them

also seen a bunch of people on twitter talking about needing to root for the ravens just because of taylor

but man, if that's a thing, like a genuine thing then that's going to backfire tremendously

idk if she's gotten political or not, but her fan base are absolutely rabid and likely don't vote, if voting for democrats was suddenly aligned with supporting taylor that could easily bump up a 5 figure voting bloc out of the void

would be incredibly dumb and tone deaf imo but they've had so much success for so long targeting "hollywood elite" that I can see how they are just going to do it anyway to "rile up the base"

What, did she drink some bud light or something?

If you can Get Taylor Swift to endorse you all the power in the world. I respect the fact that she gets politically involved in State issues and if she wants to go Federal The GOP can counter with Rosanne Barr

I hear she sings a mean national anthem.

Yeah I hate the chiefs and sure the whole thing is kinda annoying but lol at making it political.

republicans against tailor swift is one of the biggest mistakes they could do ever.

they went crazy because Swift was very pro "go vote", but they fail to understand a ton of Swift followers are very far from being leftist crazies, they are actually very normal people who could easily vote republicans if republicans don't suicide themselves.

I see something similar with the debacle of republicans with Latinos vote before trump (trump for some reasons seems capable of capturing Latinos vote)

Let’s also remember lots of these young swifties are like the squad and pro Hamas and they are upset at Bidens support for Israel

actually, not really, and those will vote whatever sick leftist they want to no matter swift or others.

think about all the political normies pls.

the "already in the field" actually don't matter at all. they vote the same no matter your actions

this, it's about which people weren't going to vote but now will

New truly bipartisan poll came out (one democrat and one republican pollster togheter), looking really bad for Biden.

Sample is smallish though

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ace-rcna136834





As a foreigner, the "improve American image" answer is baffling though, which countries do they have in mind when they answer Trump ?

It’s like any other questions .
It’s nonsense answers like the one u highlight.

incumbent president’s approval rating in New Hampshire at just 38% — the same survey
found Biden leading Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up, 52% to 45%.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...ing-rcna136793

Biden and the Democratic Party have a significant cash advantage over Republicans at the moment.
That could change in the coming months, but so far it’s a sign that Democratic donors are
reasonably engaged with the party and that Republicans have some financial vulnerabilities.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-...den-rcna137059

What is the current thinking regarding "shy" Trump voters, namely those who intend to vote for him but don't confess to that in polls or otherwise? I remember that being seen as a major factor in why 2016 went the way it did. This time around I feel like with his image somehow worse than it was in 2016, it could be even more prevalent. Add to that the baked in 40-45% people who would still likely vote for Trump even if he personally decapitated their entire family, and I do feel the ingredients are there for him to once again show even better than polls suggest, which, if I'm a democrat and I see those above trends, scares the bejesus out of me.

Afaik that's not a thing anymore, people don't feel they have to hide their preferences this round, pollsters don't talk about "shy trump voters" anymore when discussing technicalities and so on.

That at least is my limited understanding of the matter.

Trends are currently slightly positive for democrats because michigan consumer sentiment index is improving really fast & headline inflation is calming down, among other things.

But remember the election is actually only about some specific states, everywhere else it doesn't matter, so national polls can give you a national pulse of the situation, but presidential election outcomes will still be linked uniquely to the opinion of people living in a bunch of so called purple state. The opinion of everyone else doesn't matter.

I would agree the economy is performing unbelievable even Larry Kudlow has said that but is the every day American feeling it in their pocketbooks? The overall cost of living is high

The other element that is big is immigration . In many cities your seeing the poorer communities having their rec center's or schools being used fore housing migrants. In New York they are giving out prepaid credit cards to migrants and in California Gavin is spending 3 billion on Universal health care for migrants . Add in all the money for Ukraine and many folks are saying What about me ?

The immigration bill on the table looks pretty good but its no HR2 . Heck Biden is even going to build more walls with this bill. Though its dead in the water with the house. Yes they are playing politics but do you think the Democrats would be giving up so much if it wasn't killing them in the polls

Biden has the worst numbers of any incumbent president worse than Jimmy Carter but there is lots of time to change them . Though if he cared about the country he would drop out

The immigration deal, if it goes through, would be a very very very significant win for Biden coming the elections. It could make the difference. Move to the center, admitting past mistakes, for the good of the country, that kind of stuff is really big with independents, males especially (women he is winning already because of abortion and other issues).