Agreed but the only reason Biden chose Harris was because of her color and gender? I would bet he will stick with her as the VP

1. I think Biden sticks with Harris....It is VP who gives a ****. It isn't nearly the needle mover the media makes it out to be

2. Think people (financial media) are way too quick to predict recessions in general. Most likely the economy in Nov '24 won't be much different than the economy today.

That can't possibly be the only reason since other black women exist in this country.

As a little aside, does anyone think the VP choice really matters anymore? Decades ago, there was lots of talk about how this VP pick or that would "deliver the south" or "bring home the rust belt". I dont get the feeling that, even it it ere really true back then that it is true today. So I dont think the VP pick will make much of a positive difference on either side.

But even after I say that, I was leaning towards voting for John McCain. But when he nominated the most unqualified person ever to be his VP, I had to switch. Even if the chance of McCain dying in office was just 1%, and it prob was higher, I wasnt willing to take a 1% chance that Palin could end up president. So I guess I have seen how a VP choice can have a negative effect, but dont think it works the other way around. Because if you think the main candidate isnt good, then I dont see how a good VP changes anything.

I would need on the order of 80 million to 1 to bet on AOC, basically the odds that the aliens are real, they have some big guns, she is their leader, and if she doesn't win the presidency she is going to blow up the planet. In that scenario she might squeak out a victory.

Is politics betting soft? I feel like a small group is making a killing but don't want anyone to know about it.

According to Reuters U.S;

Vice President Mike Pence's debate with Democrat Kamala Harris attracted 57.9 million TV viewers.

It makes a difference.

And yet Joe Biden still got elected. Go figure.

I don't understand.

What point are you trying to make.

97 percent of African Americans voted for Obama in 2012.

Joe Biden was the vice president of Barack Obama for 8 years and got 90 percent of the African American vote in 2020.

why are you responding to a brand new account that is posting in the politics sub of a poker forum??? c'mon man you should know better than this by now

Nikki Haley announced her bid. It's really hard to imagine her getting traction with the crowd that votes in GOP primaries.

idk man, at the primaries a lot of it comes down to simple name recognition - i really don't follow too much us politics cause lol who cares but that's a name which I've heard plenty of times

even coming in with a voting audience that doesn't like you but knows about you will be a huge leg up over anyone who comes in naked

not saying she has a chance, but a good dozen or so people will throw their hat in the ring who will be far longer odds cause they won't even get any attention

Well she definitely has name recognition in South Carolina which will help out her chances nationally given the early date of their primary. But I wonder if she would even win there against Trump/Desantis?

I agree that name recognition matters. She has more than some and less than others.

It's just hard to see anyone other than Trump or DeSantis winning that primary.

oh yeah i agree with that 100%

but given that the old guard who may run like the zodiac killer are probably out of mana at this point and the public is exhausted of seeing them run and probably won't care anymore, i'd say right now she's in a distant 3rd place, which is not a bad place to start

definitely agree it comes down to trump or desantis and there's a slight chance they cannibalize each other and someone else gets some big breakthrough towards the end

idk, i just see a massive amount of value right now in the betting markets and only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger is I don't want to tie up so much funding for so long

It's funny. Trump probably is pissed at Haley and every other Republican who joins the fray. He's too dim to realize that a crowded primary can only help him.

No way Nikki Haley is white enough or racist enough to win in today's Republican party. Her birth name is Nimrata Nikki Randhawa, of India heritage. Don't think for a second Trump won't get that message out if she gains traction.

Absolutely. The only way the moron can win is in a crowded field.

Sadly though the primary may be the only thing he wins if the Dem candidate is Biden while I think Haley would destroy Biden.

ngl, i see it very difficult for biden to win a second term when he has to answer questions from even 60 minutes if he's mentally competent enough to be in office

same with harris, she's gotta be one of the more unlikeable/invisible vps i've ever witnessed - do not see the dems winning without bringing in fresh blood

You were inferring that the VP debate made a difference to who people voted for in the presidential election. At least I assumed that's what you were saying. Please correct me if I am wrong.

The fact that Harris came off poorly in that debate (in my opinion) didn't seem to affect Biden's chances in the election. That was my point.

No but she will be the VP pick since whoever will need her delegates.

biden easily rolls trump but loses to everyone else. im pretty sure everyone understands that. every bad thing anyone wants to say about bidens mental clarity is moot vs trump, considering he's laughably ahead of trump in that regard.

I don't understand. If she finishes 8th in the primary or whatever, which is entirely possible, why would anyone need to name her as the VP candidate in order to get her "delegates"?

seeing a lot of different lines at different places, could be some real arbitrage opportunities if you're willing to tie up funds for a year