luciom, florida has 13 million registered voters right now

there are 2 million cuban americans who are basically 55/45 split in voting

if someone were to do something to mobilize those cubans to not only voting dramatically for one side but also getting other unregistered cubans to go out and vote they can determine the winner of the state election


trump won florida by 400,000 votes, if he lost the cubans he'd lose florida in a landslide not only losing several hundred thousand votes but the other side gaining even more than he loses


likewise, even if kamala is convinced she isn't going to win florida under any scenario (super unlikely, as it's still unlikely she wins it but it's still in play) she's not going to mess with it because every democrat in florida will urge her not to because then they'll pay the penalty in the next election

the party wouldn't like it either because they can say "hey perhaps it was going to swing back to us in 5-10 years but now the cubans are forever anti-democratic party so we lost it for this entire generation"

florida very much still in play

I believe in 2020, Florida was the 8th closest state if I'm reading this table right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_U...ection#Results . That also makes Florida the second closest state Trump won, beat only by NC.
State and % margin:
Georgia - 0.24%
Arizona - 0.31%
Wisconsin - 0.63%
Pennsylvania - 1.16%
North Carolina -1.35%
Nevada - 2.39%
Michigan - 2.78%
Florida - 3.36%

In 2016, it was the 5th closest state:
Michigan - 0.23%
New Hampshire - 0.37%
Pennsylvania - 0.72%
Wisconsin - 0.77%
Florida - 1.20%

In 2012, it was the closest state. So it's certainly moving away from the center, but to say it's not even purple anymore? Seems like a bit of a stretch to say today.

With different candidates, maybe Florida would still be purple, but in an election involving Trump and Kamala, I think that it is pretty close to red.

I'm sure if it was longer he could have set a new record.

Do you think Florida would be less red if it was Romney v Harris?

I'd like to point out that the FL Cuban American vote was responsible for W winning the 2000 presidency. The Clinton administration decision-making regarding Elian Gonzalez that year mobilized what was generally a pretty split vote into one that was basically entirely for the Republicans. As a fifteen year old kid, I personally knew over a dozen people that switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican due to how furious they were at the time. There was only a 537 margin between Bush and Gore in FL.

There is a reason that the Republicans make a special effort to kowtow to Cuban-American demands in FL. It is an extremely powerful voting bloc that can swing FL, the third largest state in the country by population, single-handedly. If the Democrats want to start winning FL again, they can perhaps take a page out of the Republican playbook and not dismiss them as unimportant.

Its hard for the Dems to win over the Cuban population because of the Communism propaganda.

Right now? Absolutely. Trump's brand of idiocy plays very well in Florida, and Romney is viewed by many as a traitor.

There are a lot of problems with Florida, but it boils down to poor Democrat investment while Republicans really dug in and it paid off for them. Then further gerrymandered it and it will take many cycles of real effort and investment to have any shot at winning it back. Forget purple, it's for sure red right now though and getting redder. Not top 10 reddest red by a ways but still red.

Latest polls have Trump up 6 points in Florida, it's hard to see a scenario where Harris wins it without destroying Trump elsewhere else. Not even sure what DJT would need to do for that to be possible.

gerrymandering doesn't matter we aren't talking state legislature or Congressional elections , we are talking Florida vote for potus.

when we say purple we usually mean a state that can be pivotal in winning presidential elections, for both parties.

right now, afaik, no model has florida as that. doesn't mean democrats can win florida, they could in a landslide, but there is basically no scenario when they do win florida and florida EC votes are what put them above the line.

the only scenarios where they win in Florida, they would have won anyway even without winning it. so it's not purple.

That's not what purple means. Purple means that it's a close to even mix of Democrat and Republican and could be obtainable by either party. Nothing in the definition of purple requires the state to have good odds of being the tipping point state. That's a factor you chose to add in on your own.

Gerrymandering cuts down on Democrat's motivation to invest more, strong pushes for Democrats in races that would help with the presidential ticket, and Democratic leadership in those communities which can help get out the vote. So yes, it does matter in the presidential election.

Man in some elections some candidates win most states, that doesn't mean that election all states gained vs previous elections were purple.

If the only scenario a party can win state X is a landslide victory, that state isn't purple. Purple is about very close odds for both parties to win, competitive state, and that implies a good chance of being the tipping point state (if the state is big enough, like Florida).

Trump avg polling in Florida are like +6 over Harris (and that's with Harris polling approx +2 nationally). If a state polls -8 from the national avg, that's not a purple state.

trying to portray a white man who’s shown concern for
marginalized people as some sort of menacing, anti-white race traitor

“Tim Walz is the white guy with a white wife and white kids
who hates white people," Newsmax host Rob Schmitt argued.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/re...ite-rcna165876

Americasplaining itt

I never said I was convinced that she would win. I was responding to the person who said that no one realizes that Trump is still the favorite.

can anyone explain to me the actions one must take to show you "hate white people"?

Saying "I hate white people"

100% correct

Only that, you sure? does that work for other ethnicities as well?

People always point to Obama winning twice but he did 3 points worse than his national percentage against a candidate like Romney who I don’t think was very good with Florida Cubans or Floribama type rurals. Of course it’s a purple state…I think the governorship after Desantis is a toss up.

why, aren't your humourless

I mean at some point just start your show or podcast or whatever with your hand in the air shouting white power and be done with it

Wonna bet at those odds?