I was talking about Fox News, like-minded outlets, Trump, and traditional conservative posters like Brian James and lozen. In that group, I would say 0% is a decent estimate.

But yes, there are some people in the world who are reflexively sympathetic to anyone who opposes what they perceive as the establishment. Some of the people who are interested in RFK Jr. fall into that category.

But Trump, the the overwhelming majority of the "talent" at places like Fox, Brian James, and lozen do not fall into that category.

Base level derps respond to being told things they want to hear, so some element of that, but much of it is around how the content that is created for them tells them to think about these people as well. If FOX ignored RFK Jr, like they likely ignore some other wannabes that have no chance then RFK Jr has no derp interest. If his last name was Smith and he was saying the exact same things, nobody from FOX would care and he would not exist to the base derps in any real way.

I would change the stats somewhat in this way. The higher level content creators pitch these dud candidates 95+% because they can create messaging their base derps will willingly consume and under 5% hoping that somehow those unelectable people will get the nomination so their candidates can have an easy race. 5% may be a bit high as they know there is no real chance that a dud like RFK Jr ever wins the nomination so they will pivot messaging for their derps to say things like the evil Democratic overlords would never let RFK Jr win (even though he has 0% chance of winning regardless). I would expect 1-2% of people creating this type of messaging genuinely like the stuff RFK Jr says, probably not 0%, but most certainly do not care because they see him correctly as irrelevant, other than a decent source of material for stuff they can create to cater to their audience for $$$.

Pretty standard business approach when dealing with a high value and easy to manipulate audience. Great business model, I commend those who have capitalized on the opportunity.

Sure, you can ascribe any motivation you like as to why they're doing it. It both influences and is reflective of viewer sentiment of the candidate.

I'm saying if -- big if -- RFK were nominated, he stands to garner a stronger contingent of populists, independents, and undecideds that voted Trump in the last two elections; I'd argue Trump stands to steal far fewer voters that previously voted Clinton/Biden, mostly predicated on the notion that a significant chunk of Democratic turnout is driven by people who hate Trump and would elect Hitler's corpse if that was the only alternative.

Your response so far is Fox is dishonest and evil? No argument there, but doesn't seem responsive.

Significant coverage started after he announced his bid and initial polling of Dem voters put him at 20%, which is significantly higher than most "other wannabes that have no chance". It's simple and convenient to write half the country off as derps who swallow what their Fox overlords tell them with no inherent thoughts or views of their own, but I feel like reality is slightly more complicated? Out of curiosity, do you call derps derps to their face?

Fox also competes with alternative media for views. Joe Rogan (opinions aside, his audience is multiples of Fox/CNN) has platformed him. Smaller channels like The Hill (described as left-leaning) and Breaking Points (probably somewhere between) are doing non-stop RFK stories which get 2-5x as many views as their other stories, including 30 minute longform interviews/debates that I imagine would be turnoffs for derps. In your world, does Fox instigate all narratives and these channels follow their bidding?

Interesting to me, he seems to be the only candidate I've a) ever seen engage with these alternative platforms and b) speak for more than thirty seconds with a talking head, which seems like an intriguing route to drumming up support via media that is not beholden to 60% pharma ad revenue. I'm curious whether this derp candidate is like 2016 Trump but for Democrats, who announces their bid to the sheer horror of their own party, cast off as a derp who no one respectable takes seriously and doesn't stand a real chance... until he does.

Agreed.

Good news: there is actually a two-way nominee market on PredictIt, so have at that free money.

He was the right person for them to monetize their derps and they did just that, as that is their business model. They did not cover him as much as they did because of his fashion sense. His last name and his derpy vaxx stuff (which fits into their messaging) made him an ideal story for them to cover, kind of like Hunter in a different way.

As to your oh so clever do you say in real life question, the answer to that is I tend to have as minimal contact with derps in real life as possible with regard to political debates, but of course that is not always an option. On the very rare case where a derp is derping it up to me about politics I will look at my wrist that has no watch on it and say something like "that is fascinating, but look at the time, I need to head out, best of luck to you." Most stare blankly Idiocracy style, because, you know, derps. Most people, derps and non derps behave like relatively normal humans in most routine situations, so the above is pretty rare.

Do you confront people in real life the exact same way you do on the internet?

I have said that many content creators exploit the derps effectively. No idea why you think I only said FOX news does it. They do it very well, but they are hardly the only ones cashing in. We see tons of small wannabe content creators linked here with much fringier views than seen on FOX news, which makes sense since they are more likely representing their own views while also trying to monetize others. Reasonable choice for those who can get some traction, wouldn't you agree?

Nothing wrong with you being entertained by him and all the content created about him for people like you. Be sure to like, share and subscribe to those that do the job well for your needs. They earned that.

I already tossed some money on the no just for funsies, but its hardly a good investment given the time needed for the money to be held and the relatively low return for that. Also, Predictit aint the place any more other than being amused by some of the very derpy chat, especially from the Russian bots. Extra fun when they forget to translate their messages before posting them!


All the best.

I see.

Nice.

I try to, probably not, but I'm also pretty hermitic. I do like to think I make an effort (online, in person) to understand people's backgrounds and motivations, and don't write off the majority of people I disagree with as automaton sheep with no innate, comprehensible value systems.

...

^

I would agree. My quibble was with your model of the world (which I thought your previous post conveyed) in which media (namely, Fox) artificially manufactures all interest on a given topic, absent which there would be zero derp interest. My model assumes certain people or issues that inherently resonate with an audience -- even derps -- and therefore drive more content on those issues (i.e. media responds to consumer demand to some extent, even if there are nefarious reasons for providing the coverage in the way that they do).



12% risk free for, at most, one year lockup?

Thanks for the responses.

Interestingly, I do the same. I had fun for years in the riggie thread here figuring out what made riggies tick, though the obvious answers were correct - poor emotional control and paranoia, but that being said I ended up working with a few and while some still had those demons, most were fine to work with and appreciated how they could accomplish more once they dropped a lot of their paranoid beliefs.

I will also add that I do not write off the derps value systems. As I say many times, they are fully entitled to their beliefs, and in fact I kind of respect the ones that scream them loud and proud. I do not agree with them, and at times they amuse me, but I never have an issue with them having their views.

You do understand that your whole do you behave the same in real life as you do on the internet is a non-starter, because they are completely different forms of interactions. As well, the stuff I and pretty much every other geezer here writes on these forums (those I agree with and disagree with) are pretty tame overall. You mentioned predicit, and if you are familiar with that site then you have seen some of the interesting interactions there. Safe to say most would never behave like that in real life, because it is a different form of communication. Welcome to the internet.

Not exactly. Derp interest is there, but when they get someone like Hunter or a derpy Kennedy it is a relative gold mine. Other stories still get some interest, though not quite as powerful or long lasting, such as the cocaine thing that just happened. If you visit breitbart for instance (since I don't want you to think FOX is the only one that exists) they have some anti-immigrant stuff, a thing about Ben & Jerrys and something mocking Deniro. Not all content can be the home run stuff like Hunter, but it fills the derps up.

During 2020 that would have been a horrid use of money given how many markets started/ended in much shorter times with decent potential returns. Think of it like you are a poker player - if you could put your bankroll in a safe and get 12% a year later would you do that or would you instead use that same money over and over for different +EV games. You might with a small amount for funsies (as I had done here) but it would be a bad strategy to just lock it all in that way.

Also, there are fees to be considered so a locked in 12% is not quite 12%.

Same. Best of luck to you and have fun reading this forum. My advice - do not take anything said here that seriously.

Ulterior motives?

What, do you think I am trying to sabotage the democrat party or something on a forum read by about 10 people? LOL

Get a grip man.

I explained later in the thread that people like you are just trolling and imitating your media heroes.

saw a post on twitter that had a trump/kennedy 2024 flag.. which is more in line with what should happen. the only people excited about rfk jr are republicans and stooges.

Well, in actual fact you couldn't be more wrong. Not that I really give a ****, as your opinion is not something I place much value on to be fair.

I assure you that the feeling is mutual

If this was actually true, it would probably be enough people for RFK to become the next president. But the truth is not a lot of Republicans would approve of most of his policy positions. Being anti-vax and believing JFK was assassinated by the CIA only gets you so far.

Gets you pretty far these days. Add in the need to protect kids from gay characters in books while supporting legislation that allows hard labor for 12+ and you are kind of there, as long as you also require an extensive Hunter porn collection as part of membership. Hunter! Hunter!

All the best.

Oswald was CIA. I know this bc I read the main stream press.

https://www.newsweek.com/new-documen...oswald-1765105

what i said is true, though.. the only people excited about him are republicans and stooges. he's a clownshow candidate, that no one should be taking seriously.

It's possible he was FBI working undercover at the CIA-- e.g. spying on the CIA for the FBI.

its def possible. but according to those docs, he was working for the CIA which means they killed Kennedy.

ofc we all know he didnt actually shoot JFK so I dunno what the establishment liberals will say.

Perhaps he was part of the PTA that was associated with the FBI working under the CIA due to an IOU and when not paid he was SOL and became RIP. More needs TBD by the crack team of conspiracy addicts that uncover all the truths but never face consequences from the PTB.

ATB.

That’s not what that means lol


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are you seriously questioning on if Oswald was CIA?

the gov just admitted it in the Dec. NPC brain is pretty amazing to watch.

I mean this has been well known since 2017 when trump released some but not all JFK docs.


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I see that everyone's super-duper serious presidential candidate is now speculating that COVID might have been designed to attack black and Caucasian people while sparing Chinese people and Ashkenazi Jews. What an aggressively unfunny joke of a candidate.

I had no idea Cheryl was married to that guy. No wonder she was such a **** to Larry.

I had read that he was taken out of context

Here is a video. The comments weren't taken out of context at all. To the contrary, he brought up COVID in the context of bioweapons.

https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr...to-spare-jews/

Also, maybe RFK Jr. should avoid attending events hosted by Doug Dechert.

https://pagesix.com/2023/07/12/rfk-j...rds-and-farts/