they may have meant that he's up 5 percentage pts since 2020 with those age groups (so, something like 60 - 36 to biden among 18 to 24 year olds), which sounds plausible and ties in with wider polling

no they actually mean he is favourite among the 18-29, at least in some polls

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...ction-00150923

politico reported on this unprecedented shift in polls.

wider polling still works because Biden is getting favourable opinions by much older people more than any other democrat in decades

You knew it had to be coming: https://reason.com/2024/04/05/meet-l...-2024-demands/

Love the license picture. It reminds me of "Sure, Not" from Idiocracy.

"And there's no doubt that Else's candidacy offers something neither Trump nor Biden can: He is Literally not them."

Lol

Bump.

It's May 5th, therefore 6 months away from election day.

hype!

Why can you profit on betting both Trump and Biden?

That said, also me: Kamala not a bad bet in the case that Biden croaks in the next six months.

hm wow, democrats in Illinois really hate democracy

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=142911

But the election bill given final approval by Senate Democrats Thursday, a day after the bill passed the House, would further help Democrats maintain control in the next General Assembly.

Under the new law, local political party organizations can no longer appoint candidates to fill out legislative ballots where the party did not field a primary candidate. Previous law allowed the appointment process within 75 days of the primary.

/

One can, of course, oppose the idea of “slating” and prefer that candidates petition, in the abstract and as a general matter. But, the reason many candidates did not petition was the fact that they relied on existing rules to allow them to be “slated” by the party for the general election. That rug has been yanked out from under them, leaving a number of uncontested elections in the upcoming election.

/

Quite incredible a change like this is legally allowed at this stage of the election

I think the idea here is that if she is the candidate she is a truly terrible one with very low chances of winning

+7500, though. Biden's 81-years-old, ffs.

The election is only six months away. I don't have the actuarial tables in front of me, but based on reports of Biden's overall health level, I would guess that there is >95% chance that Biden will make it to the election without any sort of incapacitating health problem. It might be as high as 97-98%.

If a president candidate dies before the election , let’s say a month , is it automatically directed to the vp nominee ?

I am not an expert on political process, but I'm 99% certain that the party could nominate someone other than the VP candidate in that situation. In most cases, I would expect the VP to be the nominee, but that isn't required by law as far as I know.

Based on that information , I guess that bet on Kamala is far worse than it appears then imo …

pretty sure it isn't yes

What if a vacancy arises after the convention but before election day?
Here again the political parties would play a central role.

The Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee have slightly different rules guiding how they would replace the deceased presidential nominee by majority vote.

According to party rules, the DNC has the power to fill the vacancy on their party ticket after the chair consults Democratic governors and congressional leaders. The RNC, according to its rules, could reconvene a national convention or select the alternative candidate itself.

For simplicity, the parties would probably consider the running mate, but there is no guarantee.

If there were enough time, the replacement candidate might appear on the ballot. But states have different ballot filing deadlines and several states begin mailing their ballots as early as September.

In states where ballots have already been printed or mailed, the party could instruct voters – and electors – to treat the names at the top of the ticket “as hieroglyphics”, said Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame.

“If it says Biden-Harris, you should interpret that as Harris-Booker,” he said, offering the hypothetical example of an alternative Democratic ticket with the New Jersey senator Cory Booker as Harris’s running mate.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ump-biden-dies

Biden gets key GOP endorsement from Geoff Duncan, former lieutenant governor of Georgia

Duncan urging sane conservatives not to align
themselves with a self-centered wannabe authoritarian.

“I am voting for a decent person I disagree with on policy over
a criminal defendant without a moral compass,” Duncan wrote.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/re...den-rcna150930

It's difficult to put into words just how uninspired I am to care about this election.

I have spent half of my life reading and sometimes posting on a political forum on a poker website. These two facts cannot be a good sign for participation.

Where are the betting lines on how low the overall turnout is going to be this year?

Can you please give your predictions so I can bet against them?

I think Trump will win, and that uneducated opinion is based solely on the fact that I think there are more true believers in the Trump camp than the Biden one. I assume the fanatics on both sides are fully in control of the outcome since it seems we've lost the middle of the curve to apathy.

The people who bitched and moaned the loudest about Trump are currently wetting themselves over Gaza and acting like Biden is just as bad. Meanwhile, I see images that I think might not be AI-created where people at Trump rallies are advocating for the wearing of adult diapers. Again, not following very closely, so I assume this is because Trump had some bad pictures taken that show he may have been rocking Depends, and not that lefties are using AI to make fake images to dunk on Trumpers.

Biden can't compete with a movement where people spent their free time on arts and crafts projects that involve positive messaging for electing a president in diapers. They love this man.

Biden is out there doing **** for people and his supposed supporters are ignoring that and instead accusing him of actively participating in the genocide of brown babies. This is obviously ridiculous on its face, but here we are.

Lefties: what the actual **** is wrong inside your brains? This W is being handed to you on a silver platter. Trump is in court as we speak trying to defend himself against god knows what type of shenanigans, and is ranting in all caps on a social media platform that literally only he uses. I see the betting lines up there in post #2857. How have we arrived at this moment in time?

This all makes perfect sense but doesn't change the fact that you've been wrong in 100% of your previous predictions, so it's a bit of a poser.

We have a saying down in Texas: Broken clocks something something... can't get fooled again.

I'll add that the economy is in the best 5-10% historically (just going with unemployment), and it's the incumbent seeking a second term, that alone would almost always guarantee re election with good margins.

even not being a 90%+ favorite is obscene and means you are hated pathologically by significant portions of society much more than it's normally the case, or your opponent is extraordinarily liked more than usual (the former is more probable given approvement rates).

this said given everything should be in favor of Biden being reflected, including short term economic trend (even inflation is far less disastrous than it was 1-2 years ago), he still has a decent shot.

but it's incredible the election is even in play tbh