Biden in 2020 won Michigan by 3 , Pennsylvania by like 1; polls now out Trump ahead by 8 (??) in Michigan, even in Pennsylvania.

What's going on in Michigan? Or are polls very biased for some reason?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...polls-00148535

Maybe they saw the current prez couldn’t speak coherently and falls down from time to time? Maybe that concerns them

And so why are Pennsylvania voters mostly unmoved?

I am trying to ask how one state can shift by 11 points while another by only 1

MI has a lot of Palestinians and Muslims. their anger at Biden has been in the domestic news a lot.

I read that claim before but every source i checked put the muslim population in Michigan at around 1% of total population

I dunno, they have a lot of influence. Rashida Tlaib is from there.

also, not all Arabs and Palestinians are Muslim. esp in the diaspora.

Ok a check on the arab population gives me double the amount , at 2% of total michigan population.

Brown is the single luckiest sitting senator for getting the 06 12 18 cycle in Ohio. 06 was a massive blue wave and republican favorability was at an all time low with the disaster of Bush's 2nd term. Obama managed to hold on to Ohio in 12. In 18 dems won the midterm popular vote by a historical margin due to Trump.

Out of the 66 senate races on the ballot with Trump, Dems have won 0 in states Trump has won and I think Susan Collins is the only senator to win in a state that went for the opposite party. Both of hose need to be checked, but it seems right off the top of my head. Trump won Ohio by 8... I would have to actually start scrapping past results to tell you the last time a senator won in a state that went that far against his/her party for president. I can't even guess a name right now.

Manchin?

Romney won the state by like 25, Manchin won the seat by like 20

In 2012, Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) all won in states that Romney carried in the presidential election. McCaskill and Tester were incumbents.

Dean Heller (R-NV) won that same year in a state that Obama carried.

But it is relatively rare in recent times, and likely to be even more rare going forward.

Thanks. It didn't happen post Trump, but not THAT uncommon just in the Obama era. I thought the ND seats went down with Obama....didn't realize they held through 2012. Completely forgot about Tester.

FWIW, I think the Democrats long-term prospects in the Senate are quite a bit worse than they are in the Senate.

Current political polarization between urban and rural voters plays very much in the Republicans' favor in the Senate in a system where sparsely populated and predominantly rural states get two seats, just like California, etc.

Effectively, Democrats have traded gains among urban voters with losses among rural voters, which makes it relatively predictable that old school, prairie Democrats like Jon Tester will eventually lose their seats.

Do you mean prospects in the senate are quite a it worse than they are in the house?

Jon Tester is a great senator but I think he is toast . Montana is a great lesson on the divide between rural and city voters

Maybe the polls are biased in PA or they haven’t been paying attention?

Murkowski hates Trump enough she could leave the GOP

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/24/p...ump/index.html

It's not just about trump. It's what the republican party has become since he hijacked it. No ideology other than conspiracy theories and other assorted lies.

I'd chalk a lot of Trump's edge on Biden in polling up to out of sight out of mind, Trump hasn't been around much to most people. While Biden is president and perceived to not doing such a great job according to approval ratings.

I'd personally make Biden like 60%ish to win rn whereas market has him at 50%


As we're now only 7 months away from election, chances of an economic black swan go way down as well. I thought Trump was about 60-65% to win in Jan 2020 before covid hit (market had him like 52-53%ish iirc) and that was my logic then as well then this thing called covid 19 hit instead and rest is history.

Ehh.. I've herd this before and maybe it plays it like this. But I'm more pessimistic in the short than long term. You're right that some of these rural states will be gone, but in other states and the nation as a whole rural population is in a massive decline. And republican policies seem quite good at making these places miserable enough that rurals have to leave to get jobs/education etc and become more comfortable with immigrants and lwss in tune with culture wats and what the repubican party is selling. The decline in republican support among college educated whites is striking (double digit R margin to double digit D margin in less than 16 years) and I think could be more important as rural population continues to decline.

Biden's toast.

I was watching Real Time and they said Trump is up 5% with 18-29 year olds. Something like that I just think no way it translates to election day, and if it is even remotely close to true then he should be about -700 to win right now.

2020 from wiki

18–24 years old 65 31
25–29 years old 54 43

Yeah....dome have to be told this this every cycle, but single state/demo polls this far out have historically been less valuable than just blinding plugging in the last election's results, which itself is not very valuable, There is a point where that changes, but it's in the future and requires much more polling than we have now.

The federal government never stopped pumping money into the economy after Covid so the odds of a big economic recession in the next few months are fairly low.

The government has been funding semiconductors, EV, solar and wind energy generation as well as money for the increase in immigration and paying off student loans. These are the acts of planned economy and not a a free market economy. Russia, Venezuela and a bunch of other countries have tried this, I hope we don’t share their fate.

Congress just pushed through an extra $1.2 trillion in spending. On top of that the fed announced they will likely cut rates 3 times this year which is another way to speed up the economy - despite inflation still being high at 4.3% over the last 12 months.

It is the long-term effects of this that we should worry about, but that won’t be factored into this election.

Another person has been sentenced for committing voter fraud during the
2020 election — and once again it was on behalf of a Republican candidate.

Taylor’s case is a real example of the sort of fraud that
right-wing grifters have insisted is rampant among Democrats.

Other Trump supporters have been caught trying to vote more than once,
including multiple residents at Florida’s retirement community The Villages.
Still others have been caught trying to cast votes in the names of their dead spouses or family members.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-...024-rcna146434

So with all the ballots for the primary with uncommitted why not for president have a selection

X-None of the Above

In Columbia if the blank vote got the majority than a new election is triggered and none of the candidates could run again.

I wonder how that would fair in the USA with two candidates most voters do not want