2024 ELECTION THREAD - Page 113 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Ah, you meant they can link accounts to IRL identities. That's not what you wrote, nor did you even imply it. Communication is not really your "thing", Vic.

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03-14-2024 , 11:13 AM

#2803

wreckem713

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 1,397

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Imagine thinking the CIA or anyone would pay me to post this crap, good lord.

you work for free? #saint

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03-14-2024 , 11:13 AM

#2804

Victor

banned

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 73,070

I think people that arent nitpicky and pedantic understood just fine what I meant

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03-19-2024 , 09:27 AM

#2805

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Anyone has a link on prediction markets for Senate elections? For some reason I can't find any market on predictit for them

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03-19-2024 , 10:19 AM

#2806

lozen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 24,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

Anyone has a link on prediction markets for Senate elections? For some reason I can't find any market on predictit for them

You have to figure Joe Manchin's seat goes Red and the Montana one will be a tough fight

My guess when its all done the GOP picks up a few seats

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03-19-2024 , 10:20 AM

#2807

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Quote:

Originally Posted by lozen

You have to figure Joe Manchin's seat goes Red and the Montana one will be a tough fight

My guess when its all done the GOP picks up a few seats

I suppose that's the median view as well but i wanted odds on specific races and whatnot; maybe they will open them after primaries are all done, no idea

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03-19-2024 , 03:46 PM

#2808

Rococo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,345

Quote:

Originally Posted by lozen

You have to figure Joe Manchin's seat goes Red and the Montana one will be a tough fight

My guess when its all done the GOP picks up a few seats

On several occasions over the years, I have been assured by a few posters here that West Virginians prefer progressive policies. That's going to be difficult to square with the eventual election of Jim Justice or Alex Mooney.

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03-19-2024 , 04:15 PM

#2809

lozen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 24,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

I think Manchin saw the writing on the wall and packed it in . Isn't West Virginia a coal state ? Not seeing them as left progressive

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03-19-2024 , 04:20 PM

#2810

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

It's quite possible west virginians are ok with more federal public money on Medicare and schools for example, would that surprise you? It's plausible they Don't want any change to the worse of social security as well.

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03-19-2024 , 04:35 PM

#2811

lozen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 24,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

Lot of these folks gonna be in for a surprise in 7 years were it goes broke and they get a 27% cut

That is the one thing about Canada the Pension Plan is strong

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03-20-2024 , 04:35 AM

#2812

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Moreno, the trump backed candidate, wins the Ohio republican primaries for the Senate.

This is a loss for the USA imo because the other republican candidate was much more "old school", pro military help to Ukraine and so on.

And the winner of these primaries has a very high change of winning the general election (because Ohio has shifted solidly red lately)

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...imary-00147945

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03-20-2024 , 10:35 AM

#2813

Mr Rick

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Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,146

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

Its a huge win for Sharrod Brown who would likely have lost to the moderate opponent in Ohio.

As it stands, Brown won his last election 6 years ago when Ohio was already a Red State and the Roe v Wade thing hadn't even happened yet.

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03-20-2024 , 10:42 AM

#2814

lozen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 24,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

I agree with Mr Rick that this is a good thing for his opponent. Trump backed candidates have done poorly in 2022

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03-20-2024 , 10:45 AM

#2815

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Rick

It's almost certain (According to experts) that Brown has higher chances vs Moreno yes, still unclear if he is over 50%, very curios about prediction markets for this race

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03-20-2024 , 10:47 AM

#2816

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,736

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Rick

Brown would beat any of the three Republican candidates handily. I predict he will beat Moreno by almost 2-1.

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03-20-2024 , 10:47 AM

#2817

lozen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 24,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

It's almost certain (According to experts) that Brown has higher chances vs Moreno yes, still unclear if he is over 50%, very curios about prediction markets for this race

Oh he may still win but it kind of represents all of politics including the presidential race not to put the best candidate forward

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03-20-2024 , 10:53 AM

#2818

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjjou812

Brown would beat any of the three Republican candidates handily. I predict he will beat Moreno by almost 2-1.

wonna bet on that? You win if he gets 60%+ of the votes

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03-20-2024 , 10:54 AM

#2819

Victor

banned

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 73,070

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luciom

It's almost certain (According to experts) that Brown has higher chances vs Moreno yes, still unclear if he is over 50%, very curios about prediction markets for this race

which experts? he won by 6% in 2018 when the Repubs won damn near the rest of the state races. and that was against a moderate. I think he beats anyone this time.

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03-20-2024 , 11:29 AM

#2820

Luciom

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 5,795

Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor

which experts? he won by 6% in 2018 when the Repubs won damn near the rest of the state races. and that was against a moderate. I think he beats anyone this time.

the experts (both sides) say he has higher chances vs moreno and you seem to agree.

As for the odds of this race i haven't seen any number yet

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03-20-2024 , 01:00 PM

#2821

Victor

banned

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 73,070

I think he will be a favorite. He has consistently won by large margins despite OH going quite red.

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03-20-2024 , 01:44 PM

#2822

Rococo

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,345

Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor

I think he will be a favorite. He has consistently won by large margins despite OH going quite red.

My instinct was the same as yours but PredictIt has it very close FWIW. I still would take your side.

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03-20-2024 , 01:52 PM

#2823

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 20,649

None of west virginias history matters now, they are a red state.

West Virginia is defined primarily by a kind of poverty that no other whites outside of west virginia can understand, like the delta region in mississippi. For a long time it was a blue state based on class interests but it was always one of the most racists states uber suspicious of outsiders. The state became more liberal and moved from a kind of old school “welfare for whites only” socialist state to a more typical red state.