in all likelihood he will never be president, but in this political climate his odds are not 1 in 5,000 and i will get in line behind rickroll if you want to bet that. ironically, cnn watchers hate him the most and deride him as kook fringe conspiracy nut who no one takes seriously, but he will probably be dems' best friend by stealing a decent chunk of otherwise trump votes a la '92 perot.

Democrats won the by-election to replace Santos in a NYC district 55-45 , with a centrist candidate and a centrist message.

Mayorkas has in fact been impeached after all

Waste of time by the GOP

Uh? the senate will have hearings on it for a while and it will allow the GOP to keep the topic of immigration on the newscycle more often than it would othewise be

Once again the gop is more interested in making issues political ammo instead of making even the slightest attempt of trying to fix the problem.

I think Jon Stewart back on the Comedy Channel nails this election

At the risk of stating the obvious, even if we didn't have to escrow, and even if we all knew the true odds were 10,000 to 1, I wouldn't lay 5000 to 1 odds.

Michele Obama being at 12% now to win it all seems a bit extreme but I have no idea wtf has been going on with her lately.

Obviously for those long odds bets the person laying 5k:1 or whatever has to be the escrow.

low-info Republicans seem absolutely fascinated with the idea of Michelle running for president, no clue why this is.

Not sure either, but I think the demand to bet on Michelle Obama is relatively inelastic among bettors in that group, so if you are a book, you might as well move the odds because it isn't going to kill your action much.

Gets thinner as it goes down obvs. Took it early here, along with Newsome, now currently seeing a more attractive edge laying Biden getting offered 3-1 in some spots

Yeah have come across the type. Deranged AF. Don't know the word but when there's a subset of people that are super cooked who parrot the same (CNN) argument and for some reason it auto steelmans the other side, it would appear to look this way for sideline voters observing RFK Jr without even dissecting his arguments. 5000-1 seems good based on that logic alone lol

This is my electoral college map if the vote were held today. Not authoritative, but based on actual polling and history and sound assumptions.




Biden really needs michigan or georgia . I think he will suffer from voter apathy due to age. Not that people won’t vote for him but a slight decrease in turn out and enthusiasm, similar to John Kerry. Democrats want to live in a country where everyone sees what a fraud/ domestic threat/ selfish narcissistic idiot Trump is and see him lose by 30 points and lose 40 states but we don’t live in that country. instead of that happening dems need to grind out a victory. It’s a math turnout problem where every vote counts.

Nevada going GOP? Apparently the last time that happened was 2004.

it is tilted that way by available polling also the apathy affect.

AZ is in play more than you think.

Biden could win with your map + AZ + NV or Michigan as you say or other possibilities

I definitely think Biden has a better chance in Arizona than he does in Georgia. Put another way, I think Biden winning Arizona and losing Georgia is quite a bit more likely than him winning Georgia and losing Arizona. Biden benefitted from a perfect storm in Georgia in the 2020 election.

This is if people voted today. I would (and probably will) bet money joe biden will win the election.
Actual polls show him losing support among hispanics.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...tion-univision

while i still think he will get over 50% of the hispanic vote at the margins and turn out wise i think he is in a bit of trouble.

biden s easiest route to victory is assuredly the states I have him winning plus michigan. I think you’ll see a lot of focus on “michigan voters” soon.

Agreed

This is definitely correct. If Biden wins the election, I think that he very likely has won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Biden is slowly losing support among Hispanics but slowly gaining support among generic independents basically because Michigan consumer index is recovering fast at last and inflation is subdued compared to the past.

A lot will depend on how the economy and inflation in particular perform during the summer (this, if it ends up being Biden v Trump, which is probable but not a guarantee yet)

Whoa now with that EC map guess. I just went to 270towin to get the latest map. Look at all the gray toss up states. I feel they are sure toss ups, but Biden won them ALL in 2020. Not some of the gray, Biden won them ALL.

I’m really glad he won them all ladybruin. Hopefully he wins north carolina and Texas this time too.

let me ask you a question:



This is a list of the latest public polling in the state of nevada. Do you think this data is not in anyway relevant to predicting who would win Nevada if the election were held today?

Do you think me saying Trump is currently ahead in polling in swing states indicates I support Trump for president?