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2022 Midterms 2022 Midterms

04-19-2022 , 10:33 AM
The run up to the midterms is engaged so lets use this thread to discuss the various happenings.

And by "happenings" I mainly mean "follow the money" since elections are really only about big money now, in the US.



The billionaires cutting huge checks for the 2022 midterms

The richest Americans are quickly coming off of the sidelines as the 2022 midterm elections heat up, according to newly released filings from the Federal Election Commission.

An analysis by Yahoo Finance of the data running through March 31 finds that super PACs (Political Action Committees) have received over 30 checks so far this year of at least $1 million each. And Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison each gave eight-figure donations to Republican causes.

Across the political landscape, Senate campaigns are building up their back accounts. At the same time, so-called dark money groups have added money into the system anonymously while Donald Trump has built an enormous war chest of his own. But it’s super PACs — which can receive unlimited donations — that get the eye-popping checks. Here are some of the biggest donations revealed in the latest filings.

Schwarzman, the billionaire CEO of the Blackstone Group, spent $20 million in just one day.

On March 8, he split his largesse evenly between a super PAC for House Republicans linked to Rep. Kevin McCarthy and an organization for GOP Senators controlled by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The McConnell-aligned group is reportedly set to use this money and other contributions to buy $141 million in TV ads this fall.

A longtime Republican donor and Trump confidante, Schwarzman is worth an estimated $34 billion and has also given hundreds of thousands of dollars to other GOP groups this election cycle.

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has also given massively this election cycle, recently telling The Wall Street Journal that he plans to spend roughly $40 million this year on elections. The hedge fund founder sent $7.5 million to the House Republican-aligned super PAC, called the Congressional Leadership Fund. He gave another $5 million toward GOP Senators through a super PAC known as the Senate Leadership Fund.

Griffin and Schwarzman also cut large checks to a super PAC associated with David McCormick. The former CEO of Bridgewater Associates is running for Senate in Pennsylvania in the most expensive race in the country. It's just one example of single candidate super PACs reshaping key races with huge sums of out-of-state money.

The Senate group also received $2 million from media tycoon Rupert Murdoch and $1 million each from Home Depot (HD) co-founder Ken Langone and hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer.

House Republicans were helped by $1.5 million from the investor Charles Schwab and $1.2 million from Home Depot co-founder Bernard Marcus among others prominent names.

More Republican donors
Other billionaires sent big checks, too.

Larry Ellison sent $15 million to the Opportunity Matters Fund, a super PAC associated with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Scott’s support from Ellison, disclosed in February, has fueled speculation of a presidential bid.

Another big Super PAC in elections this year is the Club for Growth Action, which has has received nearly $18 million this election cycle from Richard Uihlein, a great-grandson of a Schlitz beer co-founder.

Uihlein and his wife Liz have been spending money in GOP politics for years and have been called “The Most Powerful Conservative Couple You’ve Never Heard Of” by The New York Times. He has also sent over $7 million to another Republican super PAC, called Restoration PAC, in recent months.

Meanwhile, Trump’s main super PAC, "Make America Great Again, Again," has raked in millions but hasn’t reported a seven-figure individual donation so far in 2022. Trump sits atop around $110 million in cash, mostly coming from smaller donors.

Democratic billionaires
Democratic aligned super PACs, meanwhile, have a few less high-profile billionaires writing big checks. Still, Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros made headlines by writing a $125 million check for his own Democratic super PAC this election season.

...Money from Soros has been spread around the Democratic super PAC world. It helped the Senate Majority PAC raise millions this quarter for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. The billionaire James Simons, founder of hedge fund Renaissance Technologies, added a check for $3 million to the group, which is expected to spend at least $100 million this fall.

American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic super PAC focused on the Senate, boasts multiple $1 million donations so far in 2022 — including donations from shopping mall heir Deborah Simon and from Soros.
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04-19-2022 , 11:45 AM
Had this ready to post in the Trump thread but better tracked here.

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The debate continues as to what a Trump endorsement is worth and whether they will help or hurt the GOP. The power of an endorsement still seems to be very strong at the primary level but in the MT and GE from him it is far more questionable and looks to be potentially like it will hurt the GOP, as the people he pushes tend to not resonate to the broader GOP voting base.


Alaska

Senate Primary
Senator Murkowski, is on the Trump hitlist as one who voted to impeach Trump. She was censured by the Alaska Republican Party. Trump is backing Kelly Tshibaka. Murkoski is a fighter though having lost her primary before but winning in GE as a write in candidate. I suspect this may go down the same way. The passionate base ousts her in the primary but the broader voting base elects her via write in again.

Pennsylvania

Senate Primary
David McCormick and Dr. Oz are the GOP front runners. Both candidates were after Trumps endorsement with Dr. Oz getting it. This one seems to be angering the base more than garnering support as Oz has not been a fan favorite amongst the Trump Derp base. The winner will go against either House Rep Conor Lamb or Lt Governor John Fetterman. This is a race where the current seat is with GOP senator Pat Toomey who will not be seeking another term. It also should be noted Toomey voted to impeach Trump as well.

Ohio

Senate Primary
The current senator is stepping down, Ohio's Rob Portman. JD Vance, Josh Mandel, Mike Gibbons, and Jane Timken all were chasing the Trump endorsement with JD receiving it. This one may work better with the base but is worrying Trump strategists due JD being one who criticized Trump pretty aggressively in the past over racism in his campaign but he is a celebrity author and Trump seems to be willing to put aside some grievances for that (Oz, Walker, etc)

Georgia

Governor Primary
Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp versus former Senator David Perdue. Kemp is the revenge Trump wants, imo second only to Mike Pence and just above Jeff Sessions in terms of Trump grievance comeuppance. Kemp was seen as a key cog in the Election coup plot, with the belief if he would do what it took, to overthrow the Georgia election for Trump it could pave a path other States could follow. Trump and Co were particularly irked with Kemp, as he showed he was willing to distort and subvert the rules for his own win against Stacey Abrams, so the Trumpers felt him drawing lines on what he was willing to do for Trump's win was arbitraty.
This will be a tough one as Kemp is very popular. up and down the line with the GOP and it's base so no one wants to be seen siding against him other than Trump.

Alaska

US House seat

Trump is all-in Sarah Palin and she is all in for him. Many credit Palin with being a key player in this type of populist politics that Trump has succeeded with. She was a Trump fan before many others would state it. “Sarah shocked many when she endorsed me very early in 2016, and we won big". This Alaska House opened up with the passing near 50 year GOP seat holder, Don Young. This will be a chaotic primary with more than 50 contenders from all parties against each other. Palin told Fox News America needed “people like Donald Trump, who has nothing to lose, like me. We’ve got nothing to lose and no more of this vanilla milquetoast, namby-pamby, wussy-pussy stuff that’s been going on”..: “America is at a tipping point. As I’ve watched the far left destroy the country, I knew I had to step up and join the fight.” Trump took a shot at McCain ... “Sarah lifted the McCain presidential campaign out of the dumps,” he said, “despite the fact that she had to endure some very evil, stupid, and jealous people within the campaign itself. “They were out to destroy her, but she didn’t let that happen. Sarah Palin is tough and smart and will never back down.”
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04-19-2022 , 11:52 AM
You should add a poll so people can predict how many seats will change hands.
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04-19-2022 , 12:07 PM
Second the poll.

The JD Vance one confuses me as I would have never guessed Trump would support him

As well lots of folks retiring on both sides

I just do not see how the Dems hold the senate or the house and the amount of cash spent is criminal. Will see if it breaks any of the Georgia Senate totals
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04-19-2022 , 01:14 PM
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-...dates-n1294546

Quote:
In at least four primary races around the country, women have
accused Republican candidates of domestic abuse and sexual violence.

A certain level of attempted victim blaming and gaslighting has become the
routine response from Republicans accused of harassment, abuse and violence.

We are watching a well-practiced playbook in use,
one designed to help allegedly dangerous men obtain political power.

Quote:
Despite his tightening grip on the GOP,
Donald Trump’s power and influence in broader political culture are waning.
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04-19-2022 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
You should add a poll so people can predict how many seats will change hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Second the poll....

Good idea but too late for me to Edit.

If a mod wants to add a poll that would be great.

What ideas would people have for a poll? Calling the number gain/lost? Total or by House/Senate?
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04-19-2022 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steamraise
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-...dates-n1294546



Quote:
In at least four primary races around the country, women have
accused Republican candidates of domestic abuse and sexual violence.

A certain level of attempted victim blaming and gaslighting has become the
routine response from Republicans accused of harassment, abuse and violence.

We are watching a well-practiced playbook in use,
one designed to help allegedly dangerous men obtain political power.
...
Sad to say but I think being 'accused' and being able to retort with the right amount of 'outrage' 'victim blaming', and 'painting yourself a victim of the witch hunt left' is a plus in todays GOP.

I think the candidates with al sorts of warts, such as this and criminal charges, and ties to crazy alt-right movements, all of which may have been disqualifiers in the past GOP are now the favorites.

Having a squeaky clean record of no criminality or accusations just does not excited the GOP base.

No hyperbole intended in the above. I legit suspect this type of 'baggage' is considered a plus for a candidate in GOP primaries.
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