totally disagree.

I think the only one who beats Trump, in the current ranks, (if he is healthy) is someone seen as very centrist and safe.

Won't be rising star progressive, yet. Wont be a Pete Buttigieg (type) yet. None of the 2016 Dem Primary candidates would beat him.

Trump will again get a record turn out from the GOP base that requires the Dem candidate to break records again to beat him.

Biden did it by lying to get the progressive vote to turn out, getting the POC vote, and getting the Independent vote.

The Dem candidate needs to win them all to hit that record total again to beat Trump.


And toughest part for whomever the Dem candidate is that I suspect the Progressive vote will be way down so they need to get even more vote in the other areas.

yeah. this is pretty amazing from someone who always falls back to telling us we live in liberal bubbles.. i see trump flags EVERY DAY. i just drove to and from my mothers and i saw dozens of trump billboards and signs that said "trump won"..

- laser like targeting to make it harder for POC to vote especially in swing States
- laser like focus at the State and local level, in driving out or replacing anyone who was not vocally in support of over turning the last election and then replacing with them with people who were vocally advocating for over turning the last election.
- prepping and convincing a significant part of the population the last election was stolen so they will support any and all efforts now as justified and cheer on the GOP if they overturn the next election (the talk on SM of 'Dem are projecting. They stole the last election and now are lying to say that Trump and GOP are trying to steal the next one is just to cover up their theft)
- whipping GOP Congress members into 'towing the Trump line, no matter how big the lie, no matter how bad the damage to the country and Constitution' to ensure the next time none of them vote against him or any of his measures or try to criticize him for his worst upcoming actions


There are more but is that enough?

Not sure if this is you just not knowing the difference between apes and monkeys, or if you're saying Trump is a chimpanzee but still preferable over a trained monkey, in which case you missed the obvious orangutan reference, or if you've just had one too many electrotherapy sessions and are finally losing what little control over your faculties you've managed to cling to until now.

What a strange person.

Michelle Obama would be a divisive but formidable candidate. She is not going to run.

Newsom for POTUS seems delusional. If you are a Democrat, being strongly associated with NY or CA seems like the kiss of death if you are running for national office.

Michelle might actually win, if she was to run. i guess I convinces you Newsome was viable as you used to say he was not.

She would motivate GOP turn out to max levels, but I think they are maxed at what Trump got last time anyway, And I think she could draw all the key boxes for a big Dem turnout, even getting a significant percent of progressives despite most being disappointed in Obama. But it is that disappointment in Obama (very centrist) that will excite the independents and moderates.

Over 4-5 years ago I was calling that Gavin be a great choice. I still think he is even with the French Laundry and California lockdowns.
Though if the survival of democracy is on the line The Dems should be calling on Michelle to run to save the USA
But instead they will present you with Biden, Harris, Hilary or Pete . Pete will get destroyed and lose the hispanic and black vote ( not ready for a gay President)

Who then? Trump will be tough to beat and Desantis would be even tougher imo.

I cannot see anyone in the current Dem ranks (especially the 2016 Primary list) that would excite across the Dem base for a National Campaign.


I would be really curious to see you rank your top 3 or 5 Dem contenders and the ones you think could beat Trump OR Desantis nationally?

Also what is your guess re GOP turnout in the next election? Do you see it falling from what it hit in 2020 if it is Trump? Desantis? or do you think that is the bar the Dem's need to beat again?

Ok but just recently when I threw out Gavin you said no way due to scandals. I then said I think those scandals mean nothing to a National audience.

I agree with the rest. Pete has no chance Nationally IMO to just jump straight to Potus. His best bet would to become a VP under someone and build more of a National profile and to make sure he gets duties and buckets of specific value to POC so he can build a resume of success with them. That way him being gay is not the first or second thing those groups think of when they hear his name.

Not sure the Dem party is smart enough to build up future stars like that with a longer term view. But giving him some real deliverables, and then not sabotaging his delivery, to POC would win most over for a future POTUS run later.

I don't understand this. Is this because NY and the CA are your liberal flagships? It must be. Wallstreet and Hollywood and the most condensed money and power, right? The rest of the nation is just rednecks and tumpers, that's what many people must be thinking.

They are living in SF, L.A., San Diego etc and push everyone out, also of new York right? The liberals! Too expensive properties, too high costs of living. The rest of the US is just hardly getting by I'm getting here. Then It's no wonder so many people are hopping on the trump train. Cant u guys see this?

My question is: why is my american friend saying everything (economy) was better under trump? And why does it seem everyone is so against trump here. What do you have to gain? (I get trump was an idiot) I'm only talking economics now. If I'm right, then most people will vote republican, simply bc they had enough of this bs .

He did? Well my friend says Biden sucks. And if he says so, it must be right. I also think Biden sucks.

Biden haters greet president in Minnesota with ‘FJB’ and ‘You Suck’ signs

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....uck-signs/amp/

Her main appeal is that she has never (and probably won't ever) run for anything. As soon as she announces her candidacy Joe Rogan and all the bros will be talking about how she wants to outlaw burgers and french fries.

I don't think her challenge is how many votes the GOP shills can get out to counter her with scare mongering.

I think her challenge (opportunity) is, how many Dem votes she can get to show up.


If Dem votes show up, Republicans can't win.

Yes about a year ago and I am not sure he escapes that but he had the best shot from the current contenders. Its so far out remember when folks were calling for Cuomo How that changed in 18 months

Nobody who knew anything about NY politics or Cuomo thought he could win a national dem primary.

I am surprised by that as I thought he was definitely being positioned for a run and if he ran he would instantly be a front runner.

I know he is not well liked by the DNC elites and has taken an antagonistic dismissive approach with them generally but still I could not see who would beat him, at least from the 2016 primary field when you remove Biden and Bernie.

It has less to do with what people in California and New York think of red state America, and more to do with red state America thinks of New York (really NYC) and California.

Is this a serious question? Trump actively undermines the notion of objective truth. He can't be trusted to leave office if he loses an election. He would happily burn American democracy to the ground if he thought it serve his personal interest and he thought he could get away with it.

The economy arguably was better under Trump, but that's mainly because (i) the president has very limited control over the economy; and (ii) most of Trump's term was pre-COVID.

Cuomo would have run in 2016 if he had thought he was remotely viable. Cuomo has the biggest ego in politics (besides Trump and perhaps Ted Cruz). If Cuomo knew he was not viable, that tells you everything you need to know about his actual viability.

Bolded is both true and not particularly relevant imo.

Not sure. It's very difficult to predict these things. Candidates who are handed the nomination on the theory that they have "earned" it due to long-term service to the party tend to fail. HRC, Dole, Kerry, McCain, and Mondale are examples. Biden of course is an exception.

In the last 50 years, victorious Democrats candidates have tended to emerge seemingly from thin air. Carter, Clinton, and Obama certainly fit this pattern.

I think that it is possible that someone like Newsom could win the nomination. But I wouldn't like his chances in a general election.

It's pretty obvious at this point that no one turns out both GOP and Democratic voters like Trump does. If Trump is the nominee, I assume that turnout will be sky high again. If Desantis is the candidate, I think turnout will be lower among both Republicans and Democrats.

Sure but I was speaking more to a 2024 run for him and not a 2016 one, with the momentum he was building without the sexual harassment blow out. I think without that he manages the Covid issues well enough by just counter narrative everything as that was known but not sinking prior.

I am quite sure that without the sex scandal stuff he would have entered the 2024 field. He was certainly signalling a run in very veiled ways, as they do.

Remove the sex scandal and he still cant win with all the nursing home deaths and fudged numbers

If Trump was in charge right now with Biden's economy he, and his right media outlets would be trumpeting everything so far that has happened under Biden as the biggest successes in American history. And your american friend would surely agree.

Trump inherited a white hot economy from Obama, who got a crap one from Bush. Trump's numbers never topped Obama's in most areas and yet every day Trump and his media stated they were setting new records in every area. Even crowd size for inauguration. BTW Clinton inherited a bad economy from Bush Sr as well and Biden got a crap one from Trump.


As Rococo said Trump is a serial liar and the media who supports him is too and those who vote for him just eat up all the lies.

I am not even addressing the threat to Democracy stuff that Trump presents nor the destabilization threat to the rest of the world since you only touched upon the economics. But there are so many reasons to fear Trump winning again.

washoe, these are bunch of key measures on the economy and when you look at them as things transition from Obama to Trump and the way each line was going, tell me which you think it looks like did well because of Trump's management as opposed to just not messing up all the positive momentum Obama handed to him?

I agree but think even without Trump running GOP turnout will be sky high as long as the nominee is seen as credible in pushing the Trump agenda forward.

There is hunger in the GOP for what they feel is justice owed to them. Also to shut down the browning or America threat once and for all.

I think if Trump stood down voluntarily and endorsed Desantis and Desantis ran with enough veiled coded messaging to the Maga crowd they might turn out in full force for him. at the same time by back channel he would be signaling to the Independents and business interest to not worry, not much will change, so ignore the more extreme stuff in my agenda.

He would basically use the Biden play book where Biden basically told progressives and POC everything they wanted to hear to get their vote while crossing his fingers and telling independents and business interests not to worry, or really believe that stuff as nothing real substantial would change.

I don't think Desantis would be any where near as extreme as Trump in a win. I more fear the GOp taking over the House and Senate with him as POTUS as i think they will amp up all the voter suppression stuff in law and to get around any SC counters to it and with no Veto in the POTUS office I think it could get real bad for US democracy.