I don't see this as a negative. Our politics have become so partisan and decisive because people have become far too invested. Now the country is polarized. It didn't used to be this way. there used to be a time when both parties partook in policy. It was unheard of for a major policy discussion to take place with the one party shutting the other out of the discussion. But now I am afraid it's too late to turn back.

i love this type of stuff. thanks for starting thread.

keep in mind that hillary should have won michigan and wisconsin with the national popular vote totals in 2016....... she put ZERO effort into those states, or very very little. so i think the 2016 EC totals were skewed.

pennsylvania, hillary put in alot of effort.... it was expected that 2016 election would come down to Pa and Fl.................. the basic math is that D's generally need florida OR pennsylvania, R's need both. in fact, it gets very very tough for trump if he loses florida.

i would think trump might lose this time with the exact same popular vote margins.

on betting markets, biden winning popular vote by more than 10.5% is now 20% (lots of juice. all outcomes probably 120-130%)

if you click through to other political consultancies maps, you see that biden is much much stronger anyway you look at it.

trump's "for sure" states have really started to disipate....... places like montana, arkansas and missouri are creeping into "likely R" or "strong R" from "safe R"

a site i saw today had biden vs trump "safe" electoral college votes at 191 to 47... add in "strong lean" and you have 229 to 113.......

a popular "safe" electoral college is 188 to 125 for biden......... but almost all those haven't been had a major update in awhile.

The federal government has nothing to do with voting machines.

The Democrats have Governors in the following swing states: PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada. Virginia is no longer a swing state really but a Democrat is governor there too.

The Republicans have Governors in: Florida, Arizona, and New Hampshire

If Biden needs Florida I think he will be in the same kind of trouble that plagued Clinton. I hope he used the right email server when he was Vice President.

Check the third sentence of my post you quoted. I worried about shady state (not federal) Republicans when it came to voting machine shenanigans.

But yeah it is nice seeing a solid number of Dem. governors. It shows that the down ticket is important besides just voting for president and not caring as much about the rest. For example, had the Dems controlled the Senate at the end of Obama's presidency, Obama would have been the one picking who filled Scalia's supreme court seat.

As it stands currently on 270towin, Biden can win without Florida. Off the top of my head I don't think that has been done since Bill Clinton in 1992.

What would happen if Trump quit mid August? Would Biden just get the walk?

Vice President Pence would finish out Trump's term and run against Biden in November. And if a VP rises to the presidency during another president's term, if it was 1/2 way + a day into the original president's term, then it doesn't affect Pence's eligibility to twice win his own four year terms. So technically Pence (or any VP) can be president for 10 years minus one day under the right circumstances.

Seeing how COVID is ramping up in FL, AZ, and TX I don't see how it doesn't get worse for Trump. Thousands more will die as a direct result of GOP Governors following Trump's advice. The optics will be terrible.

Yeah, I think you could be right. I mean, I hope you're right. Part of my reluctance about over-relying on June polling data is theoretical, and I think the point is basically correct in a vacuum. But of course we have more than just polls to reason with. The other part of my reluctance is just PTSD from 2016.

I mean yea, it is a bit hard to believe the numbers right now. Biden up by double digits. Fox News has Biden up by a point in Texas. That's got to be a direct result of current events. It just feels unsustainable.

Perfect runout for Trump is what, something like: economy makes a miraculous recovery, BLM protests get out of hand and turn off white moderates who are burned out by November, Biden becomes super incoherent in interviews, the people dying in close swing states end up being mostly poor minorities and not the old retirees hiding out in their homes.

Does that even close the gap?

Biden flopped a set with an underpair and Trump needs to hit his 2 outer.

Thank you.


10 years of Pence is a scary thought.

Above is the presidents of the 21st century starting point electoral college race. The above states in the Democratic "Blue Wall" and Republican "Red Sea" have all voted the same way since the 2000 election. Republican George W. Bush was able to use this starting point to win in 2000 and 2004. Democrat Barack Obama was able to use this starting point to win in 2008 and 2012. Same goes for Republican Donald Trump in 2016.

So what is different in 2020 or is this starting point locked in place again? The only big difference I see is that Arizona is now a toss up instead of red.

The polling for Joe Biden has shown an unusually large advantage. But year after year after year this map hasn't changed in terms of starting point. So I have to rub my eyes and check the polls again when I see Biden leading on a Georgia or Texas poll by 1+ points. Although Georgia has a history of being winnable for a southern Democrat like Carter or Clinton.

this is too reductive. indiana is super safe for Trump, but he's a dog in AZ, small fav in GA. even TEX has a better chance of flipping than indiana.

While what you are saying is true with regards to 2000 to the present, the States in grey follow different patterns.

MI, NH, NM, PA, and WI have only gone for a Republican once since 1996. And all but PA went Democrat in 1992. So NH & NM should be considered long shots for Trump in 2020.

MI, PA, and WI are a separate case since Trump won them in 2016. But the question is did Trump win them because they are moving right? Because of Trump himself? Or a lesser of two evils scenario because of the hatred for Hillary Clinton? It seems that the undecideds swung heavily for Trump in the last few days of 2016. The current polling and the past history would seem to indicate that 2016 may very well have been an aberration.

IN and NC have only gone once for a Democrat (Obama 2008) since 1992. IN should be a sure thing for Trump in 2020. NC has been moving blue recently and does have a Democrat elected Governor in 2018. And because its Trump in 2020, it probably is more or less of a toss up. While GA did go for Clinton in 1992 it didn't in 1996 and has been red ever since. Biden would do well to avoid IN and GA entirely.

CO and VA have been blue the last three elections (2008-2016) and were red the previous three (1996-2004). So they are currently leaning heavily Democrat (both have Democrat Governors).

The other 4 states: FL, IA, NV, and OH have been bellwether states since 1992 really. OH has gone for the President every single time. FL went red in 1992 (which was a Clinton win). IA went blue in 2000 which arguably was a Gore win... NV went blue in 2016. But otherwise these are true swing states. Maybe it could be argued that NV has moved left and is now really out of play. But that could be more of a Trump/immigration thing.

As for AZ and TX, I think this speaks to Trump as well as the Republican party's position on immigration. Had the House passed the bi-partisan Senate bill on immigration (prior to 2016 I don't remember the exact year), AZ and TX would not be up for discussion. And NV and possibly NM would be in play.

But the final thing to consider for AZ, GA, and TX is how Trump and their Republican Governors have handled the Covid pandemic. Similarly for IA and FL. Ohio is slightly different because De Wine has been proactive but maybe this makes it even worse for Trump.

pence would do better than trump i think, but he'd still lose.

trying to wrap my head around how to play this (and correlation between state outcomes).....

it seems like maybe an arbitrage opportunity on an actual oddsmaking site as opposed to predict.org.

basically the odds of dem's winning florida and the dem's winning the election are about the same..... BUT if dem's win florida, then trump (R's) need to win all of michigan, wisconsin, arizona, pennsylvania, north carolina - all of which dem's are clear favorites right now. 3 of them pretty strong favorites...

i would add that dem's winning the popular vote by 10.5% or more is now (juice-adjusted) 20%.. heck, i think biden might win the election with same popular vote totals as last election. wisconsin/michigan basically hillary blew. so it was pennsylvanita that should have matter. biden from scranton.

Does Pence excite Republicans in the same way Trump does?

Does his increasing competence increase vote share more than his lower charisma decreases turnout?

Genuine Euro question.

Romney woudl soulcrush biden if he had a year to tackle it w/o corona.

I think trump is a bigger dog than I originally thought.

Is Texas Really In Danger of Going Blue?

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...=footer-recirc

Palin hurt McCain, but not for the reason you think.

I tend to agree with this. It is a small victory if you can force your opponent to spend time and resources in states that your opponent expected to win easily. But that small victory is worthless if you yourself have to neglect the true battleground states in order to put other states slightly in play.

Although this has been the year of Black Lives Matter, when it comes to the general election, I think a lot will rely on latino voting.

I am not latino, and I am not trying to speak for this group. But Trump and his whisperer Stephen Miller are two of the biggest racists the executive branch has seen in a long time. If Trump and Miller had their way, every brown person would be kicked out of the country. And while the browns were waiting to be kicked out, they would all be in internment camps.

How latinos think about turning out to vote, Trump and party will decide a lot.

Arizona is finally a swing state because the latino population is now large enough, they vote Democratic and also white Republican suburbanites are leery of more Trump. Also worth noting AZ Latinos are mostly of Mexican descent.

Florida's latinos are an extremely diversified group. And the Cuba ones (one of the largest groups by far) are still pissed off at the Democratic party because of Kennedy's failure to oust Fidel Castro. Also if Trump fake fights whoever is the latest dictator in Venezuela, then latin american latinos will like Trump so he gets the Colombia and Nicaraguan vote.

Texas has a lot of Republican latinos.

^^^^^
Nice poast September.

Think of it this way... there's no longer a Republican party. The primary political parties in the U.S. are now the Democratic party and the Trump party.

Any thoughts on election math/odds following the Trump 4th July speech? The law and order anti-left narrative seems to have given him a bump, but unclear how likely that is to make a difference when it comes to electoral college/swing state math...