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2020 Electoral College Math 2020 Electoral College Math

11-07-2020 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merry Christmas
Biden wins w 306 including NC AZ MI PA
NC is a longshot but can still happen. Still not called but then again either is PA and AZ fully but I'm not sure why on these two yet.
2020 Electoral College Math Quote
11-07-2020 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [x] swanny
NC is a longshot but can still happen. Still not called but then again either is PA and AZ fully but I'm not sure why on these two yet.
Two days ago when NC reported that 95% of the expected vote was in, Biden had a real shot. Assuming the uncounted votes were recent mail in ballots, Biden only needed about 64% of the vote and he would win. In GA Biden got over 70% of the mail in vote counted after election day so NC would have been viable.

But then yesterday they changed the expected vote to 98% without altering the actual vote counts by more than a few thousand votes. So Biden would need well over 80% of the mail in vote to win (not going to happen).

I guess they can't call NC because in theory they will accept mail in ballots for 9 days after the election. Of course if those were the deciding factor, Trump would sue to have them not counted and the Supreme Court would likely rule to not have them counted if that would change the election outcome. But given that Biden has now been declared President elect by Fox news (and all other major news outlets) my guess is that the US Supreme court would choose to not hear the case because by voting for Trump the court would look like a political tool and embolden Democrats to add more sitting members (assuming the Dems ever controlled the Senate).

AZ isn't being called because on the remaining votes being counted, Biden is winning only 41.8% of them overall including many from Maricopa county which was 55% Biden as of Election Day. And while it is likely Biden will win the state (he only needs about 40% of those ballots to win) it won't be by much. I have it at about 4,000 votes or 0.1% more or less. Which is recount territory.

PA is different. Biden has taken roughly 73.7% of the mail in votes tabulated after election day. And because they are running short of those, needs only 26.4% of the remaining mail in ballots to win as of now. It is virtually impossible for Trump to win at this point. Last night however, Biden needed 34.7% to win after the last update. And before that earlier in the evening, Biden needed 42.2% which put it in the realm of conceivable (well not really).

The ultimate reason I think that PA wasn't called yesterday is because I think they wanted to make absolutely certain because of the way Fox and AP had previously called AZ only to watch Biden's lead collapse. And PA was far more important than AZ.
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11-07-2020 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck
Probably a good idea since Libs are still in full meltdown over 2016. This election is going to be even more glorious than 2016.

Trump winning TX, WI, MN, FL, PA, and I think he snags MI too.

Pollsters not learning a damn thing from 2016. Cant wait.

I will be back next week to see the meltdown with the I told you so. Watching the meltdown in 2016 was awesome.
Glorious election indeed. Was it worth the wait?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck

Pretty clear you clowns wont actually make a reasonable bet. I will be back next week to come laugh at all you or come take my roasting. See you all next week
And you missed out on the free money I was trying to give you!
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11-07-2020 , 06:34 PM
loooooool BreakYaNeck couldn't wait for the lib meltdown in 2018 and couldn't wait for the lib meltdown in 2020

I hope he also can't wait for the lib meltdown in 2022 and 2024
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11-08-2020 , 07:43 PM


I definitely want to see Biden get 306.
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11-08-2020 , 08:00 PM
The Math is slipping away from Trump in Arizona.
Quote:
Biden lead in Arizona is back over 20K - stands at 20,102.
What's left: 42k regular; 48k provisional, 6k need curing.
Estimated 91% of the Native American vote in Arizona went for Joe Biden.
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11-10-2020 , 10:10 AM
Alaska must still use dog sleds to transport the mail.

They still have 40% of the vote outstanding.
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11-10-2020 , 10:19 AM
They haven’t counted since Election Day. All that’s counted is in-person day-of vote. It was apparently always planned to be that way.
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11-10-2020 , 11:15 PM
Where is Arizona finding all these Trump ballots?
They seem to show up out of thin air. FRAUD!
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11-11-2020 , 02:10 PM
Where things stand now.
North Carolina has a potential ~50,000 ballots to count.

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11-13-2020 , 10:30 AM


"Another batch of counted votes out of Arizona was enough to push President-elect Biden over the the top in the Grand Canyon state on Thursday night. Biden claims the state's 11 electoral votes -- the first time for a Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996. Georgia and North Carolina now stand as the only uncalled states. Results in North Carolina are now imminent."

https://www.frontloadinghq.com/
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11-13-2020 , 04:00 PM
Biden Wins Georgia, Trump Wins North Carolina.
"The calls give Biden 306 electoral votes compared to 232 for Trump.
NBC News was first to make the calls, followed by ABC, CNN and CBS."
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11-13-2020 , 05:05 PM
"The final calls were made on Friday afternoon with Georgia's 16 electoral votes going to Biden and North Carolina's 15 to Trump. That brings the final 2020 electoral vote tally to Biden 306, Trump 232, the exact same final total in 2016 but on opposite sides of the partisan line."
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/

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11-13-2020 , 05:37 PM
I believe Trump said 306-232 was a landslide in 2016?

Now he's lost by a landslide.
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