Quote:
Originally Posted by [x] swanny
NC is a longshot but can still happen. Still not called but then again either is PA and AZ fully but I'm not sure why on these two yet.
Two days ago when NC reported that 95% of the expected vote was in, Biden had a real shot. Assuming the uncounted votes were recent mail in ballots, Biden only needed about 64% of the vote and he would win. In GA Biden got over 70% of the mail in vote counted after election day so NC would have been viable.
But then yesterday they changed the expected vote to 98% without altering the actual vote counts by more than a few thousand votes. So Biden would need well over 80% of the mail in vote to win (not going to happen).
I guess they can't call NC because in theory they will accept mail in ballots for 9 days after the election. Of course if those were the deciding factor, Trump would sue to have them not counted and the Supreme Court would likely rule to not have them counted if that would change the election outcome. But given that Biden has now been declared President elect by Fox news (and all other major news outlets) my guess is that the US Supreme court would choose to not hear the case because by voting for Trump the court would look like a political tool and embolden Democrats to add more sitting members (assuming the Dems ever controlled the Senate).
AZ isn't being called because on the remaining votes being counted, Biden is winning only 41.8% of them overall including many from Maricopa county which was 55% Biden as of Election Day. And while it is likely Biden will win the state (he only needs about 40% of those ballots to win) it won't be by much. I have it at about 4,000 votes or 0.1% more or less. Which is recount territory.
PA is different. Biden has taken roughly 73.7% of the mail in votes tabulated after election day. And because they are running short of those, needs only 26.4% of the remaining mail in ballots to win as of now. It is virtually impossible for Trump to win at this point. Last night however, Biden needed 34.7% to win after the last update. And before that earlier in the evening, Biden needed 42.2% which put it in the realm of conceivable (well not really).
The ultimate reason I think that PA wasn't called yesterday is because I think they wanted to make absolutely certain because of the way Fox and AP had previously called AZ only to watch Biden's lead collapse. And PA was far more important than AZ.