Trump bump? You might want to post some data to back that up. And multiple sources would be wise. All I've seen is multiple sources of Trump's approval rating going down and Biden's national/state going up. For example, the new polling map on 270towin dated July 7th now has Biden over the 270 electoral votes needed. And the 538 website has Biden's national/state polling advantage growing by the week. And somewhere, though I can't remember where, I saw a Trump approval rating of 38.5%, that was the first time I saw it below 40% ouch. But even 538website recently has it at Trump 40.5% approval mostly going straight down. And Trump 55.9% disapproval going mostly straight up.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo

Below is a consensus map from July 2nd.


Below is the polling map from July 7th. This is amazing, Biden is already at over 270 electoral votes without needing Florida or Ohio. And you could subtract out Wisconsin or North Carolina from Biden's total and he is still over 270. Trump's prospects are currently no bueno.

Biden should be able to flip a ton of votes in Northeastern PA, central PA is a lost cause...lol

With Biden up by almost an average of 10 points averaging the polls the questions might be more "How bad does Trump lose" vs. "Does he have a chance to win". Focus is going to move to the Senate as most likely this is going to flip as well if Trump's numbers don't start improving.

Bump.

I've been looking at the 270-To-Win web site's "Consensus Forecast" for the Electoral College. https://www.270towin.com/

There has been a substantial shift (in Biden's favor) since early July. His [projected] margin has increased from under 250 EC votes to 278 - a large enough margin to guarantee victory. Trump's count has decreased from just over 200 (204) to 169. If the election were held today and these projections turned out to be accurate, it doesn't look good for Team Trump.

A few things about this map stick out. First are the five states, (i.e. Florida, Arizona, Georgia(?), Ohio, and North Carolina - plus two Congressional Districts in Nebraska and Maine - that are listed as toss ups. These five toss up states total 91 EC votes. The bad news for Trump is that even if he wins all five of these toss up states, he still falls short - by approximately 10 EC votes.

Another zinger is Texas with its 38 EC votes. Usually reliable [deep red] Republican Texas, along with Iowa and South Carolina, are in the "leaning Republican" category - which is one rung above "toss up" status. If Trump manages to lose Texas, it's game, set, and match right there. Even if Trump manages to hold on to Texas, it looks like the GOP is going to have to spend a ton of money warding off Biden in that state. (It will be interesting seeing how much time - and money - Biden spends campaigning in Texas.)

This is more "librul" wishful thinking than anything else, but with a disapproval rating consistently above 50 percent - and an approval rating in the 40 to 45 percent range - I've been thinking it's impossible for Trump to win re-election. (These latest EC projections seem to bear this "feeling" out.) But then I recall what happened four years ago and break into a cold sweat. Two months is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen.

I'll be glued to my television set on election night.

Trump wins if he wins every one of the tossups you mentioned, wins all the leaning Trump states such as Texas of course, and wins Michigan, or PA. (Or, wins both WI and MN, not very likely imo.)

Of those scenarios I'd say winning Michigan is his best hope. Biden is popular in PA.

A long shot based on current polling and Trump's favorability ratings. But definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

FYP

Hopefully not one minute and not one dime.

He won the election with 46% of the vote last time it doesn’t seem to matter having 50% negative rating isn’t as important but turn out in swing states is what matters. With Covid and lots of first time ballot voting it seems to be a bit of a wild card to predict.

Trump looking solid in NC and Georgia today.

Biden going to have to go defensive in Minnesota.

I don't think Biden can simply run out the clock. He going to have to hit the campaign trail.

In limited appearances without serious media questions, he looks pretty good.

And don't forget, simply being the President is worth a ton of free ad time.

The problem with the free time Trump gets from the media is that most of it is in the context of Covid and protests. He’s way more negative on those things than his already low overall approval. He didn’t have anything like that to overcome in 2016 where his campaign itself, even if it was just him being an idiot, was the main story being covered.

Covid seems to be improving and people seem to be less exercised about it now. This makes sense, as we know a lot more about the disease.

The election impact of the protests is anyone's guess. All of the looting and problems surronding protests appears to be happening in Democrat led cities. Either Trump will get blamed for fanning the flame or people will go for the fact he is more on the side of law and order.

In the end, I think the polls are meaningless. There are more Biden supporters, but there is a big enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump. Who can drive the vote better?

The point is we don't have to speculate on voters views of his performance on Covid and the protests. They are negative and worse than his overall approval. If that's what dominates news coverage going forward that is bad for him. Another problem for him is immigration has completely fell off the map as a campaign issue so it's hard for him to dog whistle in racist attacks to energize his base. Corey Booker is going to move to your neighborhood and the suburbs will be ruined seems to be falling flat, especially with women. I'm not really sure what he can do to win back college educated white voters at this point, which was one of the key demos in the 2018 dem landslide.

It is interesting that you, and likely many Americans, regard the situation as good now, despite the USA#1 having per capita 12 times the cases daily compared to Canada and about 25 times the deaths per capita. I would also point out that the we are at September 2 now, not April 2, so the weather will not be a cooperating factor moving forward.

I mean - common sense should make you think otherwise (with regard to it being less of a concern), but I will not dispute that America overall has disregarded it more than nearly every other country, so that will be a part of how the voting goes.

"2018 dem landslide" lol

I'm guessing you're not a big math/logic/facts guy but dems won the house popular vote by 8.6% which was the largest midterms win in US history. It was about the same as Reagan's win over Carter in presidential comparisons .

In my opinion, a "landslide" would be winning both the House and Senate at the same time.

But, your point is well taken.

The senate in any single election is largely luck, based on who's defending seats that could possibly be lost. 2018 dem map was one of the worst in history. In 2016 people were talking more about a republican super majority than dems winning it. That quickly faded with Trump's poor performance though.

I'm feel more confident about Trump losing AZ than a lot of the midwest/panhandle swing states.

McSally might actually be dragging Trump down instead of the other way around. If she loses she's gotta be the first person in US history to lose both of a states Senate seats in a 2 year span as a major party nominee.

Non-american politics n00b here. I've been placing a fair few bets on certain swing states ending up in Biden's favor, but barely any on him winning the presidency. But I wonder how illogical this has, in the end, been, given that the odds in state betting are a fair bit worse than him winning outright.

For example, my biggest bet is Biden winning Wisconsin at -133. You could still get almost even money on Biden winning outright.

My logic here was basically: Wisconsin voted for the democrat nominee 7 times straight until Trump beat Hillary by 0.7%. Now there should be enough reasons for them to not go for Trump again both in terms of what's going on in the state (Kenosha) and in terms of generally not being happy enough with Trump to go republican again given their voting history.

While I realize it's not that simple, I feel like that's a relatively smart bet on its own, and I have Biden to win PA at the ~same odds and basically for the same reasons (dems won 6 times straight until Trump beat Hillary, Biden is from PA, etc).

But: If Biden wins Wisconsin and/or PA, he's going to be pretty damn close to winning the presidency outright, right? So am I just costing myself a ton of EV here doing state betting when I might as well bet on him winning the presidency?

Fwiw in the lastest polls Biden is +8 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, I have way more $ riding on him winning Wisconsin though.

I have nothing to add on your betting strategy, just posting an article which augments your sentiments of a Biden Wisconsin win:

How Suffering Farmers May Determine Trump's Fate

As rural Wisconsin's fortunes have declinded, its political importance has grown.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ne-trumps-fate

#Biden2020

Could Trump Bow Out Rather Than Endure a Humiliating Defeat?

I haven't watched "Mornin Joe" with Joe Scarborough and Mika Brezinski in quite some time. The last time I did watch, I recall Joe predicting (more like speculating) that if Trump is trailing badly in the polls and appears headed for an almost certain defeat; he may surprise everybody by announcing he's dropping out of the race and handing the Presidency over to Mike Pence. It has to be taken into account that Joe has an ax to grind as Trump has insulted his wife. (Apparently Trump's comments about Miki going to a plastic surgeon for a "nose job" weren't appreciated.) Be that as it may, there just may be a grain of truth in Scarborough's musings.

As I recall, Scarborough noted that Trump's ego is so fragile that he can't stomach the thought of being labelled a loser. The horror of Trump waking up to a New York Times headline: "America to Trump: You're Fired!" would be too much. I'm paraphrasing, but Scarborough speculated that if it becomes increasingly apparent that this is where the train is headed, Trump may decide he's had enough and say to hell with it. Although quitting would automatically make him a loser, Trump would rationalize his decision by declaring that the country doesn't appreciate all the good things he has done for it, so it's time [for him] to move on and start his own [hard right] television network. (According to CNN's Brian Stelter in his bestselling book "Hoax," this is the great fear over at the Fox News Channel: That an angry and embittered ex-President Trump will start his own television network in direct competition with Fox. Considering the great job Trump did bankrupting several casinos, the fear of Trump being a dreaded competitor may be overwrought.) For all us libs, it would be great fun watching Fox and "The Trump Network" trashing each other. For Trump, starting his own network in direct competition against Fox would be perfect revenge. It would be payback for his perception [belief] that Fox didn't do enough to support him.

If Trump does bow out he would, in effect, be saying: "The country doesn't deserve me. After all the things I've done to make America great again, people are not appreciative - they're not worthy of me." (In effect Trump would be giving the country his middle finger.) Psychologically, it might be more tolerable on his fragile ego to bow out and start his own network rather than expose himself to a crushing defeat in November.

The odds of such a scenario actually playing out may not be that great, but they're certainly greater than zero. Trump suddenly announcing, two weeks before the election, that he's bowing out would create the one thing Trump loves: Chaos. It might also create a nightmare for Democrats and liberals: President Pence.

P.S. I wonder if any of the betting sites are giving odds on Trump dropping out? (End of my daily masterpiece.)

That seems unlikely to me, unless underlying health issues grow very severe. Seems more like a claim made to generate buzz.

But if we go into hypotheticals, I don't think Pence is a nightmare for democrats. Trump is about the only popular politician the GOP has got going on a federal level. This to the extent that the recent RNC convention officially waived presenting a party platform and instead stated that it was about supporting Trump.

US elections being about electoral college math rather than popularity, I also doubt you would ever get to a scenario where a crushing defeat is "almost guaranteed". A Trump win is probably still fairly likely (without going into a debate on who is the favorite). The extremely politicized nature of the current DOJ will also likely get weaponized to attack Biden politically - which might not change the minds of many Democrats, but could still heavily influence independents and Republicans who are put off by Trump.

Financial Times US election tracker:
https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/