Quote:
Originally Posted by WheatThins_5k
They have those fairly regularly.
Roethlisberger to throw ONE touchdown pass. Things like that.
Couple weeks ago they had "Flyers to score a goal in Game 7"...and they were shut out. Probably had a 95% chance to hit and paid even money. Oh well. Sometimes the longshot comes through.
Otherwise it is fairly close to sure money most of the time and a nice perk from them in their efforts to encourage betting on other games.
I similarly look at it as similar to rakeback.
All the $10 ones are gimmes like WheatThins said.
There are some other props you have to do some homework on.
For example, there is a promo right now: +200 for MIA & JAX each to score 1 TD per half...max $50.
It might seem like a slam dunk with these two particular teams (good offenses, bad defenses).
However, the NFL league average for this condition thru 2 weeks is 36.67%.
The 2019 regular season average for this condition is 35.94%.
So given the odds +200 (betting $50 to win net $100) the EV of this bet is somewhere around $4-$5 dollars.
Best case it amounts to EV~$10-$12 for these two teams.
It probably took me 20-30 minutes to get all that data so not a great hourly.
So, tl;dr be skeptical of the prop unless it is painfully obvious like original examples.