Two Plus Two Poker Forums Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread
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08-23-2009, 04:33 AM   #526
burden2
banned

Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 969
Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise I would say "Yes. The default should be that it is all rigged, and they have to go out of their way to prove otherwise." Given the lack of transparency from Poker Stars and some curious data, there is no way I would believe I'm getting a fair shake.
ding ding ding ding we have a winner!

I havn't read far enough into this thread yet to find out why this guy was banned but he must be the first guy besides me to demonstrate that they understand the concept of the null hypothesis. All of the posturing with phrases like variance std deviation etc. but none of you even understand the basics. Pokerstars is making an affirmative statement that their RNG is fair/random. The burden of proof is on THEM. And THEY have been much less than forthcoming and open. The null hypothesis here is that it is not random.

Very relieved to see a thread with quite a few intelligent posters admitting in the face of certain scrutiny that they doubt the stars RNG. Like a lot of posters in this thread, when I was at stars, I was a winning player but not winning enough- not winning what I should have. Unfortunately I don't have PT so doing any kind of statistical analysis is very cumbersome and furthermore one persons stats mean little in the overall argument. However I will continue to trust in my common sense and judgment and also intuitive pattern recognition skills and I hope many more will start to do this.

08-23-2009, 05:47 AM   #527
Josem
human chemical weapon

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Getting Trolled
Posts: 16,265
Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread

Quote:
 Originally Posted by burden2 The burden of proof is on THEM. And THEY have been much less than forthcoming and open.
In what way? What is it that you actually want?

 08-23-2009, 06:43 AM #528 monkeyinchains banned   Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 158 Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread ongame isnt rigged but i believe their RNG is random enough. After 400k+ hand on the network. I have noticed the same thing I either have a session where: I lose lose lose with top pair for 500-1000hands then in the spawn of 10hands i hold up in 8 big pots I suckout huge, get sucked out huge then this goes on back and forth for as long as i play Or if i start a session and get flush over flush or set over set(the wrong way) i will keep losing every nut hand for the whole day(all my -6bi to -15bi day started that way within 5mins) If i start a session and lose 2 pair vs 30% equity retard, i will run hot within the next 5mins Theres a bunch more observations Also when i run bad about 99% of the time that i quit/change my ip and come back i run normal after. Before i got lazy after 2-3badbeats id change ip and always finish the day up. Weirdly, that never happened on party/stars/ftp
08-23-2009, 06:50 AM   #529
monkeyinchains
banned

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 158
Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tiltymcfish0 Obviously. I'm talking about ALL sites - can anyone produce HEM all in luck graph from ANY site over at least a 150k sample where they run above average? I'm not on here all the time but I still haven't seen one and I think therein could possibly be the answer.

are you tarded?

I have over 750k hand since i started poker. im about 60 bi above EV lifetime. if not more over different sites(i dont have a single site im not above EV)

Being above all in EV only has to do with how good or bad you play.

tards who get it in all the time with any piece of the board will run under ev
tards who play 12 table of 5 regulars day in and out will run under ev because they dont have a fish calling 99% of their stack on the turn on a draw or with 5% equity then shoving 2bb all in on the river when they hit their 2outer

when i play a bunch of regs for a long hand stretch or when i go too aggro and try to use my fold equity too much i run way under EV.

when i play topnotch poker and call my 2overs and flushdraw vs a check raise from a 0.8aggro, call pot size on turn and fold missed river i am above EV those times.

 02-24-2010, 06:53 AM #530 the clęaner veteran     Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Puerto la Cruz Posts: 2,705 Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread had to move down to 100nl since december then to 50nl and 25nl. this year so far about 200k hands on pokerstars: 18bi below ev 100nl 36bi below ev 50nl 6bi below ev 25nl total 60bi below ev i have also been dealt KK a little less then 900 times and have run into AA 25% more then expected for 6max Last edited by the clęaner; 02-24-2010 at 07:15 AM.
 02-24-2010, 07:40 AM #531 5thStreetHog Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,687 Re: Official Poker Site Data Analysis and Discussion Thread This sick bump>your run bad. Btw, AI EV is really not the best or only indicator of how you are running people, lets start to get that through our heads. That comment is not meant for you cleaner, I believe you when you say you are running bad. Im just speaking in general people put way too much weight on that statistic lately. I think most would be better off not even looking at it.

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