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[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread [PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread

07-01-2011 , 12:42 PM
i dont get it. isnt it really really easy to win the 100k?

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~susan/...Collector.html
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 12:44 PM
That is what the last few posts are about...
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessu
anyone else think the world domination promo is random like party states?

the promo lasts for 50 days allowing you to get over 5000 cities and there are only 72. what are the chances the you will collect them all if it is random? (serious question, gonna try to do the math myself but would be nice if someone confirms)

it only takes 25k in rake to get them all
The promo page was listing the city 'counter' earlier. It doesn't appear to be anymore. They were giving away 192,xxx cities in total. That number was not divisible by 72. So its presumably completely random, but there are varying numbers of each city available. Maybe 5,000 Bangalores but only 500 Ottawas.

Its definitely not 1/72 for each city. The math for that would be sick. If you pick up 600 tickets, for instance, then your odds of not getting every city would be simply: (71/72)^600 or 0.000226731245 meaning a 99.999% chance of world domination earning 167k for paying 6k in rake.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 01:28 PM
I rest my case.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryGnomeGuy
The promo page was listing the city 'counter' earlier. It doesn't appear to be anymore. They were giving away 192,xxx cities in total. That number was not divisible by 72. So its presumably completely random, but there are varying numbers of each city available. Maybe 5,000 Bangalores but only 500 Ottawas.

Its definitely not 1/72 for each city. The math for that would be sick. If you pick up 600 tickets, for instance, then your odds of not getting every city would be simply: (71/72)^600 or 0.000226731245 meaning a 99.999% chance of world domination earning 167k for paying 6k in rake.
you can't count it that way though, the math for it is more complex than that. i tried it the same way first though

you can easily confirm that by using smaller numbers as the total limit, they won't make any sense
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 01:33 PM
but yea it seems to be that different cities have different amount of tickets
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessu
you can't count it that way though, the math for it is more complex than that. i tried it the same way first though

you can easily confirm that by using smaller numbers as the total limit, they won't make any sense
Yip, you're right. That's just the odds against one individual city, not that you'll have an even distribution of the other cities.

I actually wrote a simulator for the entire process. Playing around with it 350 cities seems to be around the 50/50 mark. Here's an output sample:

Quote:


Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 5

Total Cash Earned: 4315
Total Points Earned: 40

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 871.7172



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 7

Total Cash Earned: 9282
Total Points Earned: 40

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1875.151



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 5

Total Cash Earned: 3663
Total Points Earned: 20

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 740



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 6

Total Cash Earned: 19618
Total Points Earned: 20

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 3963.232



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 8

Total Cash Earned: 5398
Total Points Earned: 20

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1090.505



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 4

Total Cash Earned: 3648
Total Points Earned: 25

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 736.9697



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 4

Total Cash Earned: 3910
Total Points Earned: 30

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 789.899



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 7

Total Cash Earned: 4204
Total Points Earned: 30

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 849.2929



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 4

Total Cash Earned: 7224
Total Points Earned: 15

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1459.394



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 9

Total Cash Earned: 11435
Total Points Earned: 15

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 2310.101



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 8

Total Cash Earned: 5138
Total Points Earned: 25

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1037.98



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 6

Total Cash Earned: 4066
Total Points Earned: 35

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 821.4141



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 8

Total Cash Earned: 7343
Total Points Earned: 10

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1483.434



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 2

Total Cash Earned: 629
Total Points Earned: 40

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 127.0707



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 2
Countries Conquered: 9

Total Cash Earned: 16090
Total Points Earned: 55

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 3250.505



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 5

Total Cash Earned: 3233
Total Points Earned: 15

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 653.1313



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 7

Total Cash Earned: 7842
Total Points Earned: 45

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1584.242



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 1
Countries Conquered: 7

Total Cash Earned: 8832
Total Points Earned: 55

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1784.242



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 5

Total Cash Earned: 4038
Total Points Earned: 40

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 815.7576



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 8

Total Cash Earned: 6214
Total Points Earned: 25

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 1255.354



Total Tickets: 100

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 0
Countries Conquered: 5

Total Cash Earned: 3887
Total Points Earned: 40

Total Rake Paid: 495
Total Rakeback: 785.2525



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 56693
Total Points Earned: 100

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 4553.655



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 15

Total Cash Earned: 30343
Total Points Earned: 115

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 2437.189



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 15

Total Cash Earned: 31293
Total Points Earned: 110

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 2513.494



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 105

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 13477.35



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 52043
Total Points Earned: 95

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 4180.161



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 2
Countries Conquered: 15

Total Cash Earned: 30618
Total Points Earned: 165

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 2459.277



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 52043
Total Points Earned: 100

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 4180.161



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 30793
Total Points Earned: 100

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 2473.333



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 51790
Total Points Earned: 105

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 4159.839



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 36443
Total Points Earned: 105

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 2927.149



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 41968
Total Points Earned: 110

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 3370.924



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 61793
Total Points Earned: 160

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 4963.293



Total Tickets: 250

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 62643
Total Points Earned: 80

Total Rake Paid: 1245
Total Rakeback: 5031.566



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 47543
Total Points Earned: 175

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 2383.108



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 185

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 210

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 240

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 260

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 145

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 205

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 195

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 36291
Total Points Earned: 255

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 1819.098



Total Tickets: 400

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 210

Total Rake Paid: 1995
Total Rakeback: 8410.677



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 190

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 51793
Total Points Earned: 190

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2968.08



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 180

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 145

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 160

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 62643
Total Points Earned: 220

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3589.857



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 57543
Total Points Earned: 220

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3297.593



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 51793
Total Points Earned: 155

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2968.08



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 185

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 150

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 52043
Total Points Earned: 130

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2982.407



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 47693
Total Points Earned: 205

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2733.123



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 120

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 245

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 47693
Total Points Earned: 220

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2733.123



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 225

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 230

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 260

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 195

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 46593
Total Points Earned: 195

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2670.086



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 210

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 62043
Total Points Earned: 195

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3555.473



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 52093
Total Points Earned: 220

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2985.272



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 47543
Total Points Earned: 165

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2724.527



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 47043
Total Points Earned: 205

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2695.874



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 115

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 46793
Total Points Earned: 240

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2681.547



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 155

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 195

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 165

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 190

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 3
Countries Conquered: 16

Total Cash Earned: 41343
Total Points Earned: 185

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2369.226



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 190

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 52043
Total Points Earned: 180

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2982.407



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 125

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 56293
Total Points Earned: 185

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3225.96



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 52043
Total Points Earned: 180

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 2982.407



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 155

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 220

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 62643
Total Points Earned: 215

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3589.857



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 170

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 57543
Total Points Earned: 145

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3297.593



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 140

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: True
Continents Conquered: 5
Countries Conquered: 18

Total Cash Earned: 167793
Total Points Earned: 160

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 9615.645



Total Tickets: 350

World Conquered: False
Continents Conquered: 4
Countries Conquered: 17

Total Cash Earned: 62343
Total Points Earned: 155

Total Rake Paid: 1745
Total Rakeback: 3572.665
Solving the exact math behind this would be fun but its just a mind bender. And people thought the birthday problem was tricky.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jukofyork
I read Bill Rini is going back to work at Party... Please god let him be in charge of fixing these server crashes (not sure if anybody remembers, but he was the one who got the devs to concentrate on fixing the client crashes that plagued Party 3-4 years ago and he seemed to make a real difference).

Juk
Link? This sounds interesting, he was the official rep on 2+2 back in the days...Would be cool to see him back.

edit: found it - http://www.billrini.com/2011/06/10/c...announcements/ doesn't seem he will be working with PartyPoker directly, more with WPT by the look of things

Last edited by OnMyBlackBerryLOL; 07-01-2011 at 02:36 PM. Reason: found it ...
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 03:15 PM
I posted the math problem to some algebra site as I couldn't figure it out. hope they post an answer soon

I am pretty sure the answer to my question is pretty low % though (the 72 hits with 5000 tickets)
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessu
I posted the math problem to some algebra site as I couldn't figure it out. hope they post an answer soon

I am pretty sure the answer to my question is pretty low % though (the 72 hits with 5000 tickets)
It will be close to 100% for 5000 tickets. I coded up a quick coupon collector sim:

Quote:
Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 338.4448




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 329.8983




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 336.1902




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 333.525




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 332.6013




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 326.1369




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 321.5993




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 336.7289




Coupons to Collect: 72
Simulation Iterations: 100000
Average Samples Required: 330.8701
It looks like the amount required to get all 72 averages out somewhere around 330. The math itself isn't too bad but I'm simply drawing a blank on it tonight. Being drunk and working on this at 5am is probably contributing to that. The formula should run something like:

t = tickets required
s = samples

odds of getting all tickets in the sample of s = ((s choose t) * t! * (s-t)^t) / s^t

That's the right sort of equation in theory but its wrong because of over counting. Hopefully that jogs somebody elses memory and they can correct it because I'm passing out here I think.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryGnomeGuy
It looks like the amount required to get all 72 averages out somewhere around 330. The math itself isn't too bad but I'm simply drawing a blank on it tonight. Being drunk and working on this at 5am is probably contributing to that. The formula should run something like:

t = tickets required
s = samples

odds of getting all tickets in the sample of s = ((s choose t) * t! * (s-t)^t) / s^t

That's the right sort of equation in theory but its wrong because of over counting. Hopefully that jogs somebody elses memory and they can correct it because I'm passing out here I think.
this is the formula for the avg draws needed afaik



n being 72 and k=1. the result is 350

edit: from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_...on_approach%29
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 06:56 PM
Aye, but that's a different problem. I want to know the odds that you have collected at least one of each coupon given a sample size.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 08:34 PM
From this discussion: http://ask.metafilter.com/164711/How...y-catch-em-all, it seems the formula is:

P = e^(T (-e^(-S/T)))

* Found by re-arranging the discussed formula of: S = T ln(-T/ ln(P))

Although I'm not really sure of this explanation of the differences between the problems sample sizes:

Quote:
The reason why the "mean" value as given by the coupon collector's equation is incorrect is because it represents the expected number of trials after which you'd have sampled all of the pieces of DNA. This is not the same as being 99.9% certain that after you reach 35,484 trials or so, you will have sampled each piece of DNA at least once. Instead, it means that if you were to keep carrying out this problem to completion, on average, you would be finished once you reached 35,484 trials. However, for any given sampling, the real point at which you had all pieces of DNA may have been before or after 35,484 trials.
Juk
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 08:55 PM
I made a post in the Probability forum to see if anybody there can help us.

Juk
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 10:18 PM
not sure if this is the right forum to ask, but are there any tournaments at party poker 02 july night? cuz i dont see anything to register..
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-01-2011 , 11:31 PM
looks like maintenance atm, im assuming ill get bumped from the sngs soon.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 03:21 AM
Cant believe some of you actually think that it will be ez to win the 100k$...

Its obv there will be like 1 city that will have a 1 on 1 000 000 to hit for every big continent and even harder for the world...

Its 100% luck like the s***y last promo even if you grind as much as the gladiator for 2 months

Nobody ever played the Mcdees Monopoly and how hard it was to get boardwalk?
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 05:14 AM
lol nobody thinks that it will be easy to win $100k?

the way party has worded the promotion details and t&c suggest it would be easy. that's why at least I am outing them since they are misleading or lying

I thought they were past these scammy promotions already but I guess they are back
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aiRpurifier
not sure if this is the right forum to ask, but are there any tournaments at party poker 02 july night? cuz i dont see anything to register..
might be because of the MTT rake change. There will be no rake on MTTs for a limited time from sunday night
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 05:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAP
might be because of the MTT rake change. There will be no rake on MTTs for a limited time from sunday night
Rake free STTs please!!! We shouldn't be discriminated against because of the size of our table!

Juk
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jukofyork
Rake free STTs please!!! We shouldn't be discriminated against because of the size of our table!

Juk
Now that would be SWEET! Or rake free HU Cash tables
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessu
lol nobody thinks that it will be easy to win $100k?

the way party has worded the promotion details and t&c suggest it would be easy. that's why at least I am outing them since they are misleading or lying

I thought they were past these scammy promotions already but I guess they are back
They are neither misleading or lying. The wording "random" does not imply that each city has an equal chance of being picked.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 03:36 PM
No more rake on Party Poker MTTs!!!

Quote:
I can confirm it's true. From 00:01 ET on Monday, all our Multitable tournaments will have no entry fees and this is set to run indefinitely!
the following is an excerpt from my blog before the news became official about my thoughts on this subject and rake in general on Party. Please show your support if you agree with my opinions:

Quote:
Perhaps Party is in fact doing more and will be eliminating the MTT rake. If so, this kind of makes sense. Clearly this will bring in many new players specifically those who specialize in MTTs. The MTT traffic at Party has always been pitiful so this could be a genius power move to attempt to become the main site for MTTs, especially when Bwin is anticipated to join forces with the Party network. (It also doesn't hurt them much when the Sunday 200k $215 and quarterly 1M $640 have so much overlay Party loses money by running them.) Standard business practice: undercut the competition to drive them out, become the leading site for MTTs, then bring back the rake.

But if this MTT rake rumor is true, it also kind of makes no sense. For players to even consider playing on a poker site, the site's rake structures must be comparable across the board from heads-up tables, sit-and-go (SNGs) tournaments, and cash games. Unfortunately on Party the rake is still capped at $1 instead of 50 cents for all HU tables, twice as high as on Poker Stars and Full Tilt. Even more disgusting is the SnG rake of 20% at the $5+1 level which bust be extremely detrimental on player retention. Cash game rake is slightly worse when tables get shorthanded.

Party needs to go one step further. Instead of just beating the competition on rake for MTTs, Party must at the very least also match the competition by reducing Heads-Up rake to a 50 cent cap, changing the $5 SNG's to a 10% rake, and reducing cash game rake when tables become short-handed. Oh, and while they are at it, why not let Palladium+ players permanently "opt-out" of the jackpot rake and receive a monthly payment of that rake paid back and forfeit any jackpot winnings.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 04:05 PM
No rake on the MTTs? I take it this is supposed to just work as a loss leader? I wonder for how long. Giving Palladium+ the ability to opt-out of the jackpot rake and any subsequent jackpots hit is an amazing idea.

This came out a few days ago: http://www.egrmagazine.com/news/1675...le-plans.thtml It states that bwin.party is planning to sell the ongame network, not merge.
[PartyPoker] Ex-Official thread Quote
07-02-2011 , 04:18 PM
Yes kinda a loss-leader and kinda a way to build an MTT base then start charging again, kinda WSEX style to get horizontal revenue although they have the player base and reputation to pull it off.

That is not new news, only Bwin players will (speculation) integrate w/ Party, could still be many more months before it happens, leaving the rest of the Ongame (primarily rakeback skins filled w/ grinders) high and dry. Since it's all still speculation I will not say any more about the topic.


edit: at least that bit of it is "confirmed" now from bwin.party, cheers for the link

Last edited by coxquinn; 07-02-2011 at 04:26 PM.
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