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Old 07-25-2010, 06:47 PM   #7376
xxaceshigh77xx
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Quote:
I feel like I'm a consistent winner at my game of choice, full ring 1-2NL with 20-50BB buy in, as I have 4BB/100 over 30K hands, and that includes a time when I was running way more tables than I could handle just trying it out (I was breakeven due to suboptimal play for about 10K hands).
you will be BE for much much larger stretches than 10k hands and it wouldnt be do to anything except for variance

also i doubt 4 BB/100 is maintainable at 20-50 1/2 fr, doubt 4bb/100 is.... but i have never played it so dunno
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Old 07-25-2010, 07:20 PM   #7377
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

lol its funny needbeer looks like a twin brother of brtnboarder
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Old 07-25-2010, 07:58 PM   #7378
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

hey grinders! i was wondering if anyone could recommend me a mouse that helps with long-term grinding. i've been using a regular busto HP mouse and figured i should invest in something that will get rid of the tension on my wrist/elbow/forearm.


what kind of mouse can you guys recommend me?



thanks!
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Old 07-25-2010, 08:11 PM   #7379
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

i lolled at the 10k breakeven stretch
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Old 07-25-2010, 08:27 PM   #7380
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

try 100k BE stretch
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Old 07-25-2010, 09:04 PM   #7381
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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Originally Posted by Bruut99 View Post
i lolled at the 10k breakeven stretch
Yeah, I was trying to get a giggle. I'm aware that going breakeven for 100K or even longer is definitely possible.

It just so happens that in my particular 30K sample, I'm sure that that breakeven stretch was due to poor play/screw ups on my part, not variance (this time).


Quote:
Originally Posted by xxaceshigh77xx View Post
also i doubt 4 BB/100 is maintainable at 20-50 1/2 fr, doubt 4bb/100 is.... but i have never played it so dunno
I'd be really interested to hear what is maintainable at those stakes/games from someone with a ton of hands played there, because looking at my own sample, I'd probably be up at 5bb/100 or even a bit higher if not for trying to play too many tables at once for awhile... not saying the game is lolbad, but there are a significant number of players at that level that play push-fold poker preflop, and once you've played enough hands to accurately approximate their range, you can just crush the balls off them by getting in position and then getting it all in preflop ahead of their range 100% of the time.

Also, anyone know how to calculate the standard deviation for a winrate based on number of hands? I'm sure I can figure it out but it's easier if someone smart just tells me.
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Old 07-25-2010, 10:17 PM   #7382
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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Originally Posted by starvingwriter82 View Post
Okay, not sure if this is the right place for this, but I didn't want to start a new thread and it seems too early for a "2011 supernova elite pursuit thread" but I wanted some advice.

Basically, I play a lot of online poker. I have a "real job" too but I probably play about 20-30 hours a week plus 10-12 hours a week at my local casino.

I recently picked up TableNinja to help with multitabling and it's really helped me increase my volume.

I feel like I'm a consistent winner at my game of choice, full ring 1-2NL with 20-50BB buy in, as I have 4BB/100 over 30K hands, and that includes a time when I was running way more tables than I could handle just trying it out (I was breakeven due to suboptimal play for about 10K hands).

So, what I am thinking is trying for SNE in 2011.

Here's my plan.

- Start adding tables with tableninja, one table per week (I currently play 8) will get me to 24 by the end of the year.

- Play enough poker to build a bankroll for higher games (I'm pretty sure I can beat 2/4 20-50, but I don't have the bankroll at the moment)

- Start 2011 cranking out the volume (I have January and February off work so I can get a good start).

- If I am still on schedule in August, quit my job and use the pokerstars supernova bonuses as my regular income (my contracts ends then, I'd simply choose not to renew).

- SNE happens

- life win

Some problems:

- I don't know if I can handle 24 tables. Right now I'm sure I can't but people have suggested that increasing slowly allows you to "get there."

- There usually aren't 24 tables of my preferred game going (just checked, and there are are 16 going). I think I can circumvent this by building a roll now until I can play one level up as well as the current level.

- I normally prefer short sessions (an hour or less). I don't know if I could/should/can do 4+ hour shifts with 24 tables.

- It seems like my table selection would go out the window. Normally I don't sit to the right of a reg with absurd 3-betting action, if I get a huge stack and only the good regs cover me I just leave, etc. but with 24 tables, I don't think I'd have time to be as picky.

- I'd be working and playing poker both "full time" the first part of the year. Ugh.

- My roll isn't where it should be (yet). I have 50 buy ins for 1-2, currently. I presume my bankroll will continue to increase and if I hit supernova this year I'll be able to cash in some of the big bonuses to build it, but, when playing this amount of hands, do you think you need even more bankroll, or not really? I can play aggressively with a bankroll for the first half of the year if necessary since I still have my "real job", but going with my plan, I'd need very conservative BR management after August as the training wheels would be coming off and poker would become my income source.

Basically, given the amount of time I spend playing poker anyway, and the limits I play at, I think that if I can gradually and successfully increase volume of tables at once and just slightly increase my playing time, it's possible for me.

I'm looking for any potential pitfalls/flaws in my plan/etc. etc. now. Basically, I want to spend 2010 getting ready, so I'm confident when I start in 2011.

Thanks for the help, I'd love to hear feedback. Sorry for the potential TLDR.
Even if you have to lower the stakes, you should try to pump out SNE-like volume for a good portion of the rest of this year. You seem earnest and willing to work and listen, so I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you look like you're in over your head here. I mean, 10k breakeven stretches are nothing. It may be that you looked through your hands and determined that you played poorly to breakeven, but at some point you're going to play a 10k stretch where if you play like God you will breakeven, and more likely you are going to lose so much that you pull out your hair. And this will happen the 10k after that, and the 10k after that, until you're looking at breakeven stretches into the six figures.

Right now, I would say you are unprepared to deal with the variance involved in putting in SNE volume, only because you have never dealt with it. That's why I recommend putting in sick volume for a month or so this year to see if you can handle it.
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Old 07-25-2010, 10:34 PM   #7383
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

No, you are not a freaking 4BB/100 player. It isn't realistic. The fact that you think you are (or that you really should be more like 5BB/100) shows how much you are most certainly in over your head here.

I'm not sure if you are going to accept that advice or not. You'll come to that realization sooner or later anyway as you hit rough patches where you lose over 50k+ hands or something anyway.

You are running hot right now which is fine. But even a losing player can have a 4BB/100 winrate over such a short sample as 30k hands.

You can play with the winrate confidence thing and variance simulator to get a better idea of what you're up again here.

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/


Just for kicks I plugged in 30k hands with a Standard Deviation of 40 (which I think many players have) for a completely break-even player. These are 10 random samples for such a player. You could very easily be exactly such a player who just happened to have one of the better lines for that. But the exact same player will have a nice, fun ride along one of those lower lines too.

Looks like about +750 on the best line and -1000 on the bottom line. For 30k hands that would be close to +2.5bb/100 in his best 30k run and then -3.3bb/100 for his worst 30k run. Just bouncing around with one break-even stretch after another...and then boom...hits his +2.5bb/100 run and feels like he's finally solved the game...and then boom...hits his -3.3bb/100 run and feels like he's an idiot and/or the unluckiest player on the site.

Ummm, yeah...the long run is REALLY freaking long.


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Old 07-25-2010, 10:42 PM   #7384
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Check out these 100k hand samples for a break-even player. They're all over the place. And that's for 1M hands broken up into 100k hand samples.

Get a hot stretch followed by break-even stretch and a ton of players would be like this recent poster and conclude that they were running "normally" and then ran bad when they (gasp) had that break-even stretch. But it could VERY EASILY be a break-even player like this graph and he was actually running really hot followed by running pretty normally.


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Old 07-25-2010, 11:07 PM   #7385
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

What type of vpp/hand are you getting at 20-50bb 200nl?
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Old 07-25-2010, 11:43 PM   #7386
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Davis View Post
I recommend putting in sick volume for a month or so this year to see if you can handle it.
This is good advice I think - right now I'm only doing 8 tables, but I hope to gradually build up volume and put in SNE levels in December to see what it's like. Out of curiosity, are there some months that are harder/easier to go through because of difference in the number of games, or is it all more or less even?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
No, you are not a freaking 4BB/100 player. It isn't realistic.
What do you think a realistic winrate is assuming a player is a "winning player?" (Give me the benefit of the doubt on being a "winning player." )

Quote:
you are most certainly in over your head here.
Absolutely. It's why I came looking for advice. All I know at the moment is that if a player played the amount of time I do, at the stakes I do, but with 24 tables going, they'd be at or close to SNE. So, I decided to get more information to see if it's possible for me.

The variance calculator/graph is really interesting, I'll have to play around with it more.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharkzilla1 View Post
What type of vpp/hand are you getting at 20-50bb 200nl?
According to HEM I'm getting .44 per hand average over 30K hands. So, playing exclusively at that level, you'd have to put in about 44,000 hands a week to make SNE. It's actually a bit less (like 43.7K) but I've heard it's important to have extra breathing room in the goals so you're not trying to grind out the last bit on Dec. 31.

Last edited by starvingwriter82; 07-25-2010 at 11:51 PM.
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Old 07-25-2010, 11:49 PM   #7387
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by clout View Post
hey grinders! i was wondering if anyone could recommend me a mouse that helps with long-term grinding. i've been using a regular busto HP mouse and figured i should invest in something that will get rid of the tension on my wrist/elbow/forearm.


what kind of mouse can you guys recommend me?



thanks!

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/best-mouse-trackball-etc-multitable-reduce-carpal-tunnel-wrist-pain-164294/
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Old 07-25-2010, 11:52 PM   #7388
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

starvingwriter - You can look up some of the top winrates for NL200 by month or for the whole year so far on PTR. I think 1bb/100 is doing pretty good. There are probably a handful of 2bb/100 winners out there. I'm just guessing though.

Obviously a lot of the top winners this month are just guys who happen to be running the hottest.
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Old 07-26-2010, 12:57 AM   #7389
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

**** it, I'm gonna do this.

280k, good bye GPA.
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Old 07-26-2010, 01:15 AM   #7390
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Starvingwriter-you live in Seoul therefore the obvious distraction of the Soju juice will inevitably draw you away from grinding. I even made a final table of an APPT and I couldn't resist getting hammed the night before. But if you move I think you might have a good chance with your mindset.
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Old 07-26-2010, 02:21 AM   #7391
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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starvingwriter - You can look up some of the top winrates for NL200 by month or for the whole year so far on PTR.
Awesome. I've never tried anything at PTR before, I'll check it out.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G View Post
Starvingwriter-you live in Seoul therefore the obvious distraction of the Soju juice will inevitably draw you away from grinding.
I do love soju, but I'm disciplined about not mixing my poker and drinking.

Living in Seoul is actually a big downside though - the times of day that are the best for me are the worst for the rest of the world (4a.m.-9a.m EST), and I'm not sure how to get around that (probably some late nights, early mornings, and a lot of weekend play is my best shot).

It won't matter if I'm on target in August, as I could then quit my job here and play when/wherever I wanted (either stay in Seoul and play when the site is busiest, or move back stateside and play there).

Even now, there's only 10 tables of my game of choice going. The game one level up (2/4) seems to play pretty similar, though. I wonder if a mix of 1/2, 2/4, and .50/1 could do it (just using .50/1 when needing to get up to 24). I splashed in a few 2/4 along with the usual 1/2, but 10 tables at once at my level is 83 hours a week of poker to get SNE, and that's not going to be possible while also having a job. :P
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Old 07-26-2010, 03:43 AM   #7392
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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Originally Posted by Sharkzilla1 View Post
What type of vpp/hand are you getting at 20-50bb 200nl?
I would say .38 to .42
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Old 07-26-2010, 04:38 AM   #7393
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

sect - I agree starving is off to a good start in terms of mindset and overall approach on how to give himself an opportunity to make it there. The winrate and sample-size stuff that I think he is overly optimistic and excited about given his hot start will fade once he takes a look at PTR and/or he gets some "corrections" at the tables in terms of not running so hot anymore. I think he kind of got the message on the 30k hand and winrate stuff.

I really don't know what he's talking about in terms of not having enough tables though. He's playing 20-50bb 1/2 NL full-ring, right? There are a ton of tables at those stakes running right now at one of the slowest hours. I count about 50.

Is he filtering out the fast tables or something? If so then just learn to deal with the fast tables because that really shouldn't be a big deal. If he's filtering out the full tables and only looking at the tables with available seats then he should stop doing that.
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Old 07-26-2010, 04:55 AM   #7394
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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**** it, I'm gonna do this.

280k, good bye GPA.
lol what a hero
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Old 07-26-2010, 05:21 AM   #7395
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

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I really don't know what he's talking about in terms of not having enough tables though. He's playing 20-50bb 1/2 NL full-ring, right? There are a ton of tables at those stakes running right now at one of the slowest hours. I count about 50.
Wow, lol@me, what an epic oversight. I was totally sure I had my filter to show both fast and regular speed tables, but after you mentioned this I double checked and saw that for some reason I had it checked to see only fast tables.

Well, that's a simple way to solve a big hurdle. Heh.

Edit: Hmmm... checked again atm (20-50BB, 1/2, Full Ring, both fast and regular) and there are 18 tables up and running, counting those that are partially full.

Living in Seoul ftl? Still, running a mix of 1/2 and 2/4 should work fine.
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Old 07-26-2010, 05:27 AM   #7396
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Whoops. Sorry.I was looking at NL100. You are correct that there aren't many going at NL200.
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Old 07-26-2010, 05:37 AM   #7397
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

also something you wont be used to having not 24 tabled, that adds in time you might not have accounted for is that it takes a fairly long amount of time to get 24 tables up and running(especially at midstakes FR, and especially at this time of day when not many games are running, and new tables are rarely started)

this is not as big of a problem at 6max at the same limits
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Old 07-26-2010, 05:45 AM   #7398
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

It's not as big a problem in general if you simply adjust your standards for where you're willing to sit. This can involve 6-max or the 40-100bb tables or incorporating different stakes (as this poster has suggested) or pretty much anything.

Conclusion: If you want to play 24 tables but there aren't that many running at your very specific criteria....broaden your criteria.
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Old 07-26-2010, 06:39 AM   #7399
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

Hey NeedBeer, liking the blog so far. I was wondering if you could do a blog post detailing what an average day for you is like: how much do you sleep, when do you wake up, how many hours of poker is average, how long your sessions are, how long your breaks are, what you do during breaks, just stuff like that.
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Old 07-26-2010, 08:33 AM   #7400
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Re: Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

mb stupid question but why u still have hair needbeer?
thought ppl loose that in chemo
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