Quote:
Originally Posted by DrawNone
do you have any sort of evidence or experience to back this statement up? nearly half a million will be used for buyins to MTTs 2day. what % or total players' bankrolls do you think are used to reg MTTs on a Sunday. double it to be safe and extrapolate a conservative estimate of total balances.
what happened to all that cash in your hypothetical scenario where deposits have to cover withdrawals?
You are correct that I cannot prove or substantiate anything about Merge's financial condition, be very skeptical of anyone who claims to.
Merge has been around for a long time, so the plan has not been to just accept deposits without any intention of paying. A site like Merge is successful in a certain sense as long as more money comes in than out. Under this situation all withdrawals can be paid, and there is money left over to run the business and allow the owners to buy nice things.
To maintain this positive cash-in state for any period longer than a very short time they will have to act like all other sites. This means fraud control, bonus restrictions, limited overlays, correct book lines, fees on moving money, etc.
Paying out at any time does not guarantee they are solvent, in the sense that they can pay all deposits (liabilities to them) and still have enough capital to run the business. This is what I meant when I said they likely rely on new deposits. Merge can know with confidence that a large amount of the money on the site (liabilities to them) will never be withdrawn. This money will be converted to rake or vig, used for play, some will simply be forgotten about and never claimed.
They need enough cash on hand to pay people who require money for the business to continue (employees, servers and hosting, vendors, etc). Not paying withdrawals will cause deposits to eventually stop, and they will lose their cash-in state. So the only reason to stop paying is deciding to steal all the money (unlikely as explained earlier). Or getting short on cash and not being able to pay out -- while at the same time keeping an acceptable amount of cash on hand to keep things running. What $ figure this is for them I do not know.
The may start paying everyone on time again, and still be unable to cover all deposits. If it is true they are short on cash, this is what they hope happens. Money comes in, they pay out a slice of it as withdrawals and are back to a positive cash-in state. When the music stops at some point then people will not get paid. Merge depends on the US market, the DOJ considers their activity illegal, so if they are under-capitalized they never had an end game besides not paying out.