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Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
Let me start by saying this is not a rant from a fish that took a bad beat and is now complaining because that won't do anyone any good. I also am a winning player that has made money on Black chip poker as well as betonline poker and withdrawn more than I ever deposited so I don't think I am too bad at poker.
While you may not be terrible, you're probably also not as good as you think you are. I say this partly because that's the case with many beginning players, but mostly because of some of the naive-sounding statements peppered throughout this post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
I have however tracked some things a lot of things on the betonline, bovada and winning poker network that a several standard deviations away from the norm that I am wondering if anyone else has noticed.
What things, aside from winrate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
To describe my situation I am a senior in Chemical engineering and business at the University of California Berkeley graduating in 3 months and I have been player poker for about 4 years now. Aside from playing at stones cardroom in Sacramento before I transferred to Berkeley I mostly played on betonline over the last year depositing $100 and getting it up to at the highest 3K and then just getting kind of stopped from winning any more by the cards before I withdrew and tried my hand at bovada and Black chip.
the pattern that keeps seeming to happen is I get on a site and win at a very high rate at first over the first few thousand hands and then reach a point where it seems the sites recognize this and decide not to let me win anymore. It happened several times on betonline where after winning at a high winrate (20+bb/100) for 5-10k hands I then breakeven getting coolered or taking a bad beat after everytime I win money from someone that is making mistakes I would never make. examples being things like one time I had a streak of getting dealt KK vs AA 13 times without ever getting AA vs KK.
This happened several times on betonline and then I would leave for awhile and try another site like ignition and bovada where again the same pattern would happen. I win 1k or so in a week or 2 on playing 100NL and then I would hit a wall where no matter how well I played I could not win because of the cards being dealt.
When I would go back to betonline I would see this yet again where I would win at first and cards would seem to be fair and after winning at a high rate for a few thousand hands I would start to get limited by permanent "runbad" that woud last well over 20k hands.
The only reason that seems to exist for you when you can't win any more is that it's the cards; no mention of examining your own play. Perhaps you aren't good enough to win long term. Or since you seem quite obsessed about the cards you're getting, maybe when you have a bad run, it affects your play - either by tilting you, or getting you to put more money in when you know you're beat, just to prove to yourself that the "fish" sucked out again.
Or have you done a lot of self-reflection and study, and just not mentioned it?
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Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
I would use pokerdope to calculate variance and see that given the winrate I had over the first 5k hands even if that came from me running the top 1% luckest I could, I would have a true winrate that is incompatible with breaking even over 20k hands (hopefully you understand that analysis although its hard to explain typing). I decided this was proof the RNGs were rigged to stop winning players from winning too much and withdrawing.
While it's good to see that you're at least trying to be more analytical about this, it would be interesting to know more about how you came to this conclusion. Seems to me that it would be pretty tough to do when you don't have any idea what your true winrate is with all these small sample sizes.
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Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
I understand variance and that bad beats happen in poker occasionally but the math of what has happened and the pattern I am seeing over more than 100k hands is pretty clearly not a normal distribution. And it is making me wonder if I am wasting my time on these sites trying to make money.
They should happen a lot more than occasionally, especially if you're playing a lot of rec players. But if you can't get out of this mindset, you probably are wasting your time, regardless of whether it's rigged or not.
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Originally Posted by Alexwarren91
Has anyone had similar or differing experiences with these sites? Your thoughts and own stories would really help me figure out if I should just stop wasting my time after I make the first 1 or 2K on these sites.
You'll find lots of people in this thread who've had similar experience, and others who have had differing ones. You'll also find many people who've had differing experiences in the individual threads for each poker site (but this discussion doesn't belong there). Really, you're going to need to decide on this for yourself in the end.