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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,268 34.87%
No 5,286 56.41%
Undecided 817 8.72%
Voters: 9371. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-21-2018, 03:00 PM   #84551
Monteroy
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
There's no obvious behind the scenes link, and there's an awful lot of overlap between ban and join dates.

There are some posting similarities.
That guy posted his crazy stuff years apart in the stats forum, and openly acknowledged he was posting similar drivel on a bunch of different message boards. Was fun to watch people try to talk sense to a genuinely strange human, but if this person is just a repeat then that falls fully in the meh, whatever, been there done that category.

That time it was using the word ostensible a lot. This time he claims to be a physicist talking about thermodynamic systems. Instead of ?/3 it is 10^16. Yawn/0

Not much can be done with him if it is him, and it is always disappointing to see someone come back and produce a much lower quality thread. Even the guy who had the epiphany from watching the movie "Casino" will ideally run out of quotes soon in reply to him.

Given how he does not really speak directly to people (much like the other account), I will have to assume it is him again doing his message board rounds with his new/tweaked belief. Who knows, maybe he will find a new twist to make it fun to read again, people already seem to be trying to have a genuine conversation with him to point out his errors. That should go well...
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Old 07-21-2018, 03:21 PM   #84552
Bobo Fett
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
I am a physicist.
I have been trained in programming statistical simulations and analyzing data, also I do it on a regular base.
Great. It doesn't change the fact that your posts have been full of flaws and bad assumptions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
On that example with those Aces.
Not all Aces are the same
Did you read his post? He was talking about analyzing whether a player is getting more or less pocket Aces than they should be. For such an analysis, all Aces are the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
and that fact could also get abused.
- Some Aces are easier to play some are tougher.
- Some Aces can generate better value then others.
- Some win some lose
...

The answer is it's not meaningless, but to get really good quality we would have to go further into detail, which we might not going be capable of.
You've explained yourself quite poorly here once again, but I think I understand what you're getting at. It sounds like you want to change this to a rig where they strategically give more or less Aces based on the situation. Yes, that could be complicated to detect. It would also be quite complicated to program in a way that would generate more profit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
How are you going to get all the information ?
How are you going to get such a huge sample size ?
How are you going to deal with cards we don't see ?
Not every hand and board is going to be revealed to us.
No idea. What are we trying to prove?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
You also have to assume that someone who is rigging data might not just put in arbitrarily values and could also run some kind of evaluation to check his output.
Well, I don't think a rig would make any sense unless there was some evaluation behind it. An arbitrary rig would be pointless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
Just look back to the superuser scandal on UB back then.
They might never found out about it if the guy would not been so reckless and just constantly checked and adjusted his stats.
He just had to went into his own database look up some stats of several winning players and try to imitate them.
I think that's a little oversimplified, but I'd definitely agree that he/they could have been much better at avoiding detection.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
Also it was super lucky that they send them his hand history.
Yes, but it wasn't needed. It was obvious there were super using accounts without the hand histories.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
In other words you could totally get ****ed over and there is nothing you can do about it
No question there could be rigs that aren't detectable, but I'm not convinced that a rig that is profitable enough to be worthwhile could be undetectable. As for super users, someone who is very careful could be very difficult to detect - but that also requires a site to be complicit or very, very negligent. But yes, I'd agree that's possible.

I'd be much more on the lookout for colluders, bots, and hackers. But that's for other threads.
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Old 07-21-2018, 03:41 PM   #84553
DonCheckRaiso
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Freewill2112 View Post
What do you think poker players do when they perform a statistical analysis on a sample of hands? All it is is a series of binomial distributions.

- Given that I was dealt a suited hand and saw the flop, how often did I flop a flush draw?
- Given that I was dealt QQ and saw the flop, how often did I flop at least an overpair?
- Given that I was dealt into the hand, how often was my hand precisely AA?

...and so on.

The thing is that the filtering functions in programs like PT4 and HM2 make this analysis trivially easy.
They are correlated you don't have one single event you are looking for like do I have a flush or not.
You look at a chain of events and will get a multivariate distribution.
One of those bad boys in n-dimensions.
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:09 PM   #84554
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
They are correlated you don't have one single event you are looking for like do I have a flush or not.
Yes, you are looking at one single event. One at a time, anyway. But you can look at as many different single events as you have time for. Players have done exhaustive analysis on the distribution of a multitude of different events. Then, they post their results and subject them to scrutiny from their peers. No one who has done this kind of analysis has found any evidence of rigging.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
You look at a chain of events and will get a multivariate distribution.
One of those bad boys in n-dimensions.
Even if this has any relevance in analyzing a database of poker hands (and count me as skeptical), it doesn't make Mike Haven's link about sample size determination irrelevant. You take a sample of a population (in this case, all the hands you've ever played on poker site x), analyze it for a multitude of different events, and use the data to make inferences about the population as a whole (in this case, all of the hands that have ever been played on poker site x). I do wish you'd take Monteroy's suggestion and go over to the Probability forum and explain to those guys why their methods are inadequate.
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Old 07-21-2018, 08:05 PM   #84555
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Even the guy who had the epiphany from watching the movie "Casino" will ideally run out of quotes soon in reply to him.
..
I won't run out of quotes but at this point i'm entertaining myself more than others and the guy didn't take the bait.

junglemit more fun b/c he actually attacks and insults you
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Old 07-22-2018, 10:05 AM   #84556
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

If you can't see why a event with two possible outcomes is not the same like a event with a trillion possible outcomes, then you are either to stupid or to ignorant.
Either way a discussion is pointless.

Seems like that Casino scene was far more matching the situation then I realized on first sight.
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Old 07-22-2018, 11:46 AM   #84557
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
If you can't see why a event with two possible outcomes is not the same like a event with a trillion possible outcomes
But the conversation is about poker, where a player's hand has just 169 relevant outcomes. The rest is just irrelevant permutations of those.

Even when considering the full board and multiple players hands, the outcomes relevant to poker are still magnitudes below "trillions".
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Old 07-22-2018, 12:16 PM   #84558
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

https://youtu.be/v69L36o8crQ?t=2s
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Old 07-22-2018, 03:35 PM   #84559
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonCheckRaiso View Post
Either way a discussion is pointless.
With you, it seems like it certainly is.
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Old 07-22-2018, 05:26 PM   #84560
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I'll add to what I said earlier, I started playing last year and I built up a nice BR (2.5k) just through luckboxing it and having some ok intuition (ZeeWhyZeeZee 888), then my luck ran out and eventually I tilted it away.

I invested in training programs like Upswing, RYE and all the free content I could find, so in the fall of last year I started after getting rekt in the summer. You can look up ZeeWhyZeeZee on Stars and Party, it was going ok, but not as fast as I wanted it to, see this thread I made:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...37/index2.html

Just basically me whining for a few pages, but in fairness I was running bad, however it was relatively standard.

Since then, I went on to build up my BR on Party and and Stars, crushing $5 Omaha due to solid preflop fundamentals and doing well at the low stakes. I took some time off again to start this year as I was going through a bit of a downswing when I decided to transition to 50nl HU for a bit and boy did that do wonders for formulating good strategies around different flops, frequencies and sizings.

I started playing more HU tournies and was lucky to bink one of the PKOs I played for 1k, but it was not smooth sailing after that, in the 100+ games that followed although I was still winning, I had 16 straight top 10s without taking it down, obviously complete PKOs are a bit different, but the point stands about how bad I was running late, that doesn't count the 10-15 other times I finished in the 1% without big scores.

Basically, at one point I was up around 1k for 2-2.5 months, but the upper end if I won 100% of those super late spots was like 30k, so with slightly better run it could've easily been 5-6k nevermind anything ridiculous like winning 100%.

Yesterday I managed to run like God and take advantage of some pretty poor play:



And while I did sun run in that tournament a few times (winning 2 flips in a row and 2 75/25s in a row on the FT, winning a 75/25 before that and 1 two outer on the river), I also got rekt a few times (aces cracked, 20/80d once, lost 3 flips in a row, running into a bigger flush draw when I had fd and 2 overs as well), the sun run wasn't really ridic per se



Last bit is tournament.

So yeah, I started NOT being able to beat $10-15 ABI (getting crushed at $20s), not being able to beat 25nl and now I beat $20 ABI without any problem and 50 NL without much issue either. Why? Because I studied and invested in the best training material, just that simple

It's obviously a dumb debate, but real, living and personal examples do seem to work better for people than hard data which can be manipulated.
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Old 07-22-2018, 07:02 PM   #84561
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

^^
nice. but no fun. can't you post something more whiny, redundant and useless?
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Old 07-22-2018, 09:53 PM   #84562
7OAD
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by donk mcReetard View Post
^^
nice. but no fun. can't you post something more whiny, redundant and useless?
Ok, I lied, I'm actually Pokerstars CEO's son, he rigged it for me, get rekt rec scum.
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Old 07-23-2018, 01:57 PM   #84563
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Re: Official partypoker thread

Bad/weak players are so protected on this software that it's so blatantly obvious. I just hope those behind Party Poker truly understand what odds and percentages are but criminals don't have much of an IQ. If they did they would know at least that some of their victims will eventually come after them either soon or close to their bucket lists.

What's worst is how also this forum platform is infiltrated as well most likely through lobbying means. So, they too most likely will get some taste of justice for advertising in the past and present networks with criminal links.

There is notable difference between a fixed/rigged software and regular one and this difference goes to 99.9% accuracy the more hands are sampled. I understand we are living in a flawed system where loopholes do exist but those loopholes work only against the corrupt authorities not against those who will go at all means to bring a better world for us tomorrow if not for themselves for the future generations.
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Old 07-24-2018, 03:04 AM   #84564
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Re: Official partypoker thread

I'm bored. I'll indulge your tinfoilhat theory. What is this "blatantly obvious" thing you have observed and recorded? Where are the spreadsheets?

Are you losing more coinflips than usual vs new players? Have you compiled a list of new players that have gone on a heater? Have you figured out how long this incubation protection period is. Before it wears off?

As one of these new players. I've already lost half my bankroll. Where was my "protection"? Or am I suppose to go down further. Until I'm left with my last few buyins, before it kicks in?
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Old 07-24-2018, 04:50 AM   #84565
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Re: Official partypoker thread

@CSIN

Track the times you've won hands based on the odds.
Track the times you've won hands based on getting lucky.
Track the times you've lost hands based against the odds.

The longer you track the more accurate your sampling data becomes. Party Poker is not completely rigged as good players can and will see profit out of playing there. There is no doubt about that as weak/bad players should also naturally lose their $ but the process is just prolonged based on the algorithm so party poker maintains better traffic and more rake from its player pool.
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Old 07-24-2018, 07:51 AM   #84566
Monteroy
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Show us your breakdown of your data then, since it was so blatant, complete with the specific theories tested, the methodology used etc. I suggest that while knowing it will never happen, because riggies.

All the best.
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Old 07-24-2018, 09:17 AM   #84567
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Re: Official partypoker thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kopogero View Post
Track the times you've won hands based on the odds.
Track the times you've won hands based on getting lucky.
Track the times you've lost hands based against the odds.

The longer you track the more accurate your sampling data becomes.
Please share your data.
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Old 07-24-2018, 02:15 PM   #84568
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Guys, Kopogero already shared their data:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kopogero View Post


This is party poker.
What more do you need to see such an obvious rig over such a huge sample of hands?
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Old 07-24-2018, 03:47 PM   #84569
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obvious Shill Alt View Post
Guys, Kopogero already shared their data:


What more do you need to see such an obvious rig over such a huge sample of hands?
So if I'm reading this right, he has a variance of -9.6 bb/100 from expectation over 4781 hands.

LOL really? And he thought that was noteworthy in poker? We don't know his personal standard deviation but in any NL game this result is likely less than 1 standard deviation from expected. Meaning totally normal.
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Old 07-26-2018, 11:05 AM   #84570
DonCheckRaiso
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Also this is just around 418 BB you could reach that in couple of hands.
If you for example lose a 75 % Hand in a 200 BB Pot that is already getting -100 BB instead of +50 BB.
Lose three of those in a row you already reach 450 BB below EV.

On the other hand it is just All In EV the vast majority of the hands you play won't reach a All In before the river.
You could lose 1 All In Pot before the river due to a suckout but win 100 Pots with a suck out that didn't went All In before the river and would run below EV.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:42 AM   #84571
Kopogero
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I'll add further evidence.

I've been warning individuals not to participate at party network as there is strong evidence of criminal activity and software fixing/rigging so it favors weak/bad players for the purpose to keep them longer, maintaining bigger traffic while also receiving more rake overall. Keep in mind in the past party poker also has a history, if you google it you'll see how once they purposely separated their weak/bad/recreational players from their regular/good ones, but they reversed that after the negative feedback. So, now I'm not too surprised they are choosing this road.

I'm also going to provide one hand which is also a blatant example how hard they are working on rigging the software. For privacy purposes I changed my screen name to xxxxx.


davidlopez.du58 raises [$0.52 USD]
xxxxx raises [$2.05 USD]
Collenberg83 calls [$1.90 USD]
davidlopez.du58 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 8s, Td ]
xxxxx bets [$2.60 USD]
Collenberg83 calls [$2.60 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3d ]
xxxxx is all-In [$3.85 USD]
Collenberg83 calls [$3.85 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
xxxxx shows [ Qs, Qc ]a pair of Queens.
Collenberg83 shows [ Qd, 2d ]a flush, Ace high.
Collenberg83 wins $16.84 USD from the main pot with a flush, Ace high.

I hope party poker ends up with zero traffic due to the negative feedback it receives from vocal players like me on their software. All these "too good to be true" promotions are there for a reason. I and many avid poker players are sad any time we run into a network who believes through criminal means it will generate more profits than running genuinely. They simply believe that their average player is a sheeple, but I strongly believe most poker players out there are intelligent enough to quickly recognize rigging after sampling date for prolong period. These type of "bad beats" are almost a daily occurrence at this network and they are way too frequent than they should be.

Years ago I also played at betfair I think (ipoker network) and I cashed out after months exactly due to the same thing and again the common thing these networks have is this really good "promotions".
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Old 08-01-2018, 06:19 AM   #84572
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

How many glasses can you fill in a day by just putting them below your face and catching drool?
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:05 AM   #84573
Mike Haven
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kopogero View Post
... at party network ... there is strong evidence of criminal activity and software fixing/rigging so it favors weak/bad players for the purpose to keep them longer, maintaining bigger traffic while also receiving more rake overall. ...
No. There isn't any evidence.
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:20 AM   #84574
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

By the way stating someone is conducting criminal activities without evidence is possibly libelous.
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:24 AM   #84575
NewOldGuy
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

What the hell is that hand supposed to be showing? That nobody should ever make a flush?? Which happens what, 12% of the time with suited hands??

I think it shows you overplaying a pair.

SMH

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 08-01-2018 at 07:45 AM.
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