Maybe you just suck?

Like i said even players who suck win sometimes through variance.

Explains your results playing zoom, then.

Not over 200k hands, whale.

Literally everytime a short stack sees a flop they hit a set. I only laugh now because its so ridiculous.

Can you post this 180k hands sample of your 10nl FF games online, please (or PM me them). I'll take a look.

GazzyB the biggest whale on PP I guess I should play like you and get it in bad every hand to suck out.

Lessu i deleted it because it was too depressing. My mate got crushed there as well and is now beating 25z zoom comfortably over the last month. Unless you played the summer grind over a big sample you should not talk.

And at 10 times the stakes you play too, that must make you saltyyy

Can you email Party to send you those hands? If shorties flop sets non-stop, it's something we should prove and get addressed.

And I've played 60k hands soon for the promo.

Nah because you will be at my stakes soon. Doubt you could even beat 10 zoom that's why you ran from poker stars.

Lessu I will see if I can be bothered because I know nothing will be done. Are you winning so far?

I play a lot of PS HU Sit n Gos. I recently recorded the last 270 all-ins, the probability of win/loss and the outcome.

For instance:
Prob. W/L
42% L
52% W
56% L etc....

On this small sample I won 1 time but my expected wins were 1.5.

I've carried this out over a sample size of 270. My expected win rate was 144 but I in fact only won 121. That's quite a deviation from the expected value. I admit that the sample size is small and not conclusive. However the rate of deviation was very consistent. For calculating the probabilities I used the data available on the Pokerstars account.


Any thoughts to explain this? (Obviously I could be competing against a proportion of "house" players .)

Does not compute and I don't understand what you mean by "I won 1 but my expected wins were 1.5".

If you meant that you won only once where you were expected to win 1.5, that means you won 0,67*144 which is 97 instead of 121. If your expected was to win 144 out of 270 then you were expected to win 53% of them, not that big of an edge.

So your question is, can you run 23 flips under expected in a sample of 270. The answer is: easily

Post your "data" in the this forum

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/

though you will need a lot more information than you have provided, and being a new poster with unverifiable data never helps.

Alternatively you can post in BBV where they will likely suggest that people are colluding against you and you should fold more rivers, and they may mock your likely low buy ins as well.

Or you can continue to post here in this thread in which case I suggest making up more fun data. Say you lost 57 flips in a row for instance.

Lots of options for you, so pick the one(s) that best suit your needs!


All the best.

Is it just me or are the bad beats on this site getting ridiculous. I always thought something was wrong. Now i grind 2 other sites with bovada and i see the difference on the amount of beats bovada is handing out on one sitting compared to the other sites i have. Thoughts? what you think. they said there software is certified by itech labs but i dont see any information on itech site backing that claim. Maybe im just reaching. Maybe this is normal you guys let me know

I've played/tracked more than one million hands on bovada and I assure you that is not the case.

I was going to post the same damn thing last week. I have received countless bad beats on Bovada since the update. It's almost astonishing how bad it's gotten.

-Losing with 91% equity and getting sucked out on the river 4 times
-Losing against A4 versus my AK with gunshot straight and flush draw
-Overall bad players winning more than usual (that's saying a lot!)

Kelvis

Of course its possible to run 23 under but its actually quite a low probability. I've actually run similar data tests a few times over the last few years and always found similar results.

I'd be more interested in hearing from someone who has run a similar analysis on a larger sample size. Also, if there are any statisticians that want to ascribe a std dev to the sample size I have offered, assuming a normal distribution we can put numbers on the probability rather than glibly asserting that its "easy".

(FYI I've played poker live and online for about 10yrs at all stake sizes up to $2k (when PS used to do that). I've noticed that my win rate used to be about 64% and its now down to about 55% which is too low to keep me interested.

They meant in their example of 3 situations, since they were ahead in 2 out of 3 their EV was 1.5...apparently.
Is it that sonofabitch Player 7 again?!!

I've done more math than you have. You haven't even given a probability of such a streak yourself nor have you explained the discrepancy in your numbers.

FYI poker has gotten tougher, it's totally expected that a fish' winrate is going to decrease.

FYP.

Well, not exactly fixed as I see what you did there, but it's in anticipation of his comeback that he's not a fish.

Haha.. Kelvis your 8th grade maths doesnt quite stack up to my post grad education or my seven figure salary. Never mind.. keep trolling lol

How low? You haven't posted enough data for anyone to do that. Knowing that you should have won 144/270 but only won 121/270 isn't enough. Monteroy already linked you to the Probability forum, see if you can get one of those guys to take a looksie.

What do your post grad in banging crack whores and 0,0000001 times the median salary have to do with anything?

You left out your supermodel girlfriend, which would have completed the standard newbie poster trifecta of made-up non-poker claims.

Anyway, I gave you a link to a forum to get help with your math, and most of them do have at least a high school education, so you should post there and show off your math prowess and fictional wealth. Perhaps they respect that, or at least they can tell you the odds they would respect that...

All the best.

For a year they told me gaming associates did the certificate even after I talked with gsming and they told me they no longer have a relationship with bovada. Now they itechlabs.au labs but u will never get it achieve labs to answer your questions about bovada

If you are interested in looking into this from a statistical perspective:

Let Pi be the prob of winning the ith all-in.

Then the expected number of all-ins you should win is the Sum{Pi}.

And the standard deviation of the number of all-ins you should win is the Sqrt[Sum{(Pi)*(1-Pi)}].

From this you can determine how many standard deviations your actual number of all-in wins is below the expected number.