I know you don't - this is why I asked you if English was your first language. Not because of your poor spelling, but because of your incredibly terrible communication skills. You are given an example and some very straightforward questions not once, but twice, I point this out to you, and not only are you still incapable of answering the questions, but you apparently have no understanding that you haven't answered them properly.

ASB has tried again with a very similar example - let's see how you do this time.

Yes
Yes
Yes
75%

Progress. This is getting exciting!

OK, then - here is how the wager will work.

After you properly prove and escrow your side of the wager (zero chance this happens until we see proof you have the money and you do not control it for when you lose), I will setup a private heads up game on Stars.

- You will not be one of the players since you said you do not have to be dealt cards to do this prediction.

- 500 trials will take place.

- The players will limp/check preflop and let a flop happen, at which time you will say as an observer at the table the 3 numbers you are predicting (ex: 3/7/9 or K/Q/4) which means 12 potential cards (unless you pick a number of a card on the flop which you certainly can do). You cannot have more than 12 possible cards on any specific deal to win that deal.

- The suits do not matter ( apparently flushes are not part of this super power for whatever reason)

- If you get one of your three predicted ranks correct on the turn or the river or both then that counts as a single success for you, if the turn and river produce none of your predicted three ranks then that is a single failure

- You will make the call on every flop, however if you miss the timing of some that will make it void for that deal (not a success or failure).

- After you make the call the two players will check the flop and the turn to allow a showdown to take place

- If the tournament ends (hopefully one without increasing blinds can be created) before 500 trials then an additional tournament will be planned

- You claim to be able to get 75% correct which means you will need 375 successes to win, but because I am a very nice guy we will reduce that figure to 370 for the 500 trials

- This is an even money wager (ie: both sides wager the same amount to win that amount)


That is about it - nice and simple and it properly tests the super power you claim to have, while eliminating luck from impacting the results (like would be involved if we did just 5 trials for instance).

How is luck removed? Well, that is where math comes in, and because the above (while it meets your conditions) is a complete sucker bet, the fact is that people like you are very easy to con and trick so I will break down the math for you (and would ask others to confirm I have the math correct).

The odds of you getting each prediction right is about 43-45%. I calculated that by seeing what are the odds of you losing a trial (after seeing a flop) and in theory that should be 37/49 * 36/48 and that = around 56-57%

You can use the following website to determine the odds of getting a certain amount of coin flips

http://calculator.tutorvista.com/coi...alculator.html

and if you put in 370 out of 500 you will see the odds are about 3 *10 to the 27th power, which is less likely than you winning teh Powerball lottery three times in a row. Actually it is even worse because the coin flip is 50% and you have about a 45% chance each time.

Still, none of that should matter if you believe in your ability to predict cards when seeing a flop, since that has nothing to do with math and everything to do with your super powers.


If you actually go through with this (which obviously you will not) then you will certainly lose. It is that simple.

No doubt you will find a way to find the above test not acceptable or you will do your doddering geezer routine (like with the heads up challenge how you keep avoiding saying what site you would actually play on), and I estimate a 0% chance this will ever takes place.

Still, if you agree to the above terms the next step is for you to prove you have the money and put it in escrow, because you will have zero chance of winning this bet, and you have no reputation for others to believe you will actually pay when you lose if the money is not in escrow.

As you say, the ball is in your court so it is up to you how to avoid having this happen, and when you do that try to be a bit creative!

All the best.


Edit to add: Minimum $1,000 wager, though I suspect getting action to well above a million will be easy assuming yours is in escrow in a trusted manner.

Can I book $0,10 to someones $1M on him winning this bet? Just for epicness value.

Sorry I stopped reading after u said here is how it works. I will tell u how it's gonna work. Deal? Not sure exactly who u think u are dude.

We should rather bet on: "Which lame excuse will he pull out most likely"

What do you take issue with? Sounds like you're on the same page. When is the bet taking place?

OK lets bet on that. There is no chance I am escrow ing money to anyone he knows. There is also no chance I a doing this under his conditions.

Funny guy, eh? Finish the bet or back out of it already, you're getting boring very fast.

EDIT: HA, there we go.

EDIT2: now lets bet on how many more posts you will whine about the bet.

Same page??? His home game, escrow ing money to his friend. No chance. He is telling me how many flops we are gonna see? Telling me how the hands will go down? Telling me 500 flops. No way dude. Not doing this bet according to your rules

Just for the small chance you did not understand how escrow works: you choose a neutral person.

.

So new rules. We will see 9 flops total. U will escrow money. I will create the home game with my players. Ball is in your court. When can u eacrow?

Well, assuming this wager is for hundreds of thousands of dollars what we can then do is exchange real world information and use a professional lawyer that has a stellar reputation in your town to handle your escrow and the contract as well (since one will be needed for a figure that amount).


Jungmit,

What I proposed was a completely fair test of your super power. Pokerstars would be running the game, not me, I would simply set it up, but if you want to use the theory that somehow I can control the cards then whatever - that is a very boring excuse to get out of the bet.


Just for laughs, go ahead and explain how you would propose to do it, because that does have some potential for comedy value.


I tell you what I will even make it easier for you. Let's do it just for $1,000 and you will not have to escrow. After you lose and you find an excuse why you will not pay (which is a certainty) then you agree that your posting accounts and all others that are ever linked to it are permanently banned from twoplustwo. You will also be posted about in the negative feedback thread at that time for failure to pay an agreed upon wager.

How about that?

As to who creates the home game and which players - we can certainly consider that as well, however if you choose Omaha and have both players telling you the cards that changes the odds quite a bit, so again you need to be very clear (like I was) what you need the conditions to be for this to work, and once I know that I can easily create a situation where again you will definitely lose the bet based on math. At that point you can make newer excuses why it will not take place.


All the best.

Lol. Yeah let me send money to a guy I don't know. Ok any else want to hold money too.he can escrow it to a person of my choice

how can someone rack up 800 posts and then decide to troll the rigtard thread....you sure you aren't retired because of mental illness?

He was clearly articulating the conditions, which were based on your own. How this should work from here is that you should tell him which ones you have a problem with, and suggest alternatives, not just say "no way we're doing it this way". This is the only way it's going to happen, because we know there's no way in hell you'd ever be able to clearly articulate conditions that would make sense.

Of course we all know this is never going to happen, but I imagine this will play itself out for a while until it becomes obvious that you have no intention of being reasonable about the conditions so it has a chance of coming off.

The way an escrow works is that you both decide on a single party that you each deem trustworthy, and that person holds the money of both parties, then sends it to the winner once one is declared, or returns the money back to both parties if the bet is declared void for some reason.

OK I got my guy. And I am sure he has his guy. Great l. We don't each other so how can I trust his guy or how can he trust my guy? It's no better then me or him holding the money

Here jung - a simpler approach


- 500 trials

- You create the home game

- You have both players playing (heads up so max 2 players)

- They can tell you their hole cards

- You can pick Omaha (so 8 hole cards total)

- You have to predict the ranks before the turn is dealt in observer chat

- If either the turn or river card or both are the rank you predict (3 ranks total predicted on the flop) then it is a success, otherwise it is a failure

- You have to get 375 or more correct in 500 trials to win the wager

- Minimum $1,000 wager, nobody has to escrow. You take action from as many posters (within whatever max you want to bet) up to that limit. May as well get more people in on this for fun!

- When you do not pay after you lose then you are permanently banned (all accounts forever) from twoplustwo. You are also permanently banned if you fail to run the game as promised once all the wagers are determined.



How about that? No need for you to escrow. I know you will not even pay when you lose, because people like you lie all the time.

All the best.

You

need

to

find

one

person

you

both

decide

you

can

trust.

There is no "my guy" and "his guy". There needs to be one neutral third party. That's what an escrow is.

Right, that's why it has to be one person you both agree on.

Awesome. Looking forward to his issue with this.

Funny how he claims to have worked in investments and real estate but can't get his head around the concept of escrow.

And
Where
Would
U
Suggest
We
Find
1
Person
We both
Trust
To send
Money.
Ok monty senfb $1,000 to my buddy I trust him. How stupid can u be dude.ni don't know anyone he know. I trust my friend ton hold it but he wont. And obv he is not sending money to my friend

jung,

I removed the escrow condition so that should not be an issue. I also removed me creating the Stars home game (you can do it) so that should not be an issue. You can use your players now as well, so it is time for you to make evasive excuses on the new presented conditions!


I assume it will be the number of trials or that he has no idea how to create a home game on Stars or that he will not trust Stars, or he will reply with essentially his standard off topic type of comment. Those are all pretty boring, so they are directly in his wheelhouse, but maybe he will surprise us with something new!