I sent u a pm. Just wondering what u think after u read it. I do remember playing with u on bodog tho.

I think based on our DM's that we found the issue, you are severely over estimate how many live hands you have played. I would post what you said, and my response (when you said you played 250,000 hands live) ... but I don't want to be rude and do it w/o your permission.

I am signing off now, but if you really wanted to discuss it more you should ask others how many hands they see an hour live and do some math. I think you are overestimating how many hands you have played live; which means the results have more variance then you think.

But it was a nice discussion, but I can't continue it anymore. Good luck at the tables, live or online.

250,000 hands divided by 30 hands per hour= 8,333 hours of live poker divided by 12 years = 694 hours per year divided by 52 weeks = 13 hours of live poker a week.

^ Don't do that.

v Do this.

...

Your point? Let's test it. Find the ratios and test it. As far as I am aware this has never been tested. Forget the outcome and who wins, let's just test for this. No company has ever done it as far as i know.

His point is that you don't know how often it should happen but you think it happens more often than it should.

That is a ridiculous position to take.

Why not go away for a few weeks, learn how to calculate whatever you want to check, and then check your own hands? (Buy PT or HEM to make life easier for you. Don't use the HUD.)

Come back in a few weeks' time and tell us what you have discovered. Looking forward to hearing it.

WHO CARES ABOUT THE MATHS, WHO KNOWS WHAT WE'RE TESTING FOR. LET'S JUST TEST IT. NOBODY HAS EVER DONE THIS. LET'S JUST TEST IT.

But what u are not understanding is I am comparing it to about 250,000 live hands. I have never seen anyone make a royal live, never seen quads over quads, never seen straight flush over straight flush, hardly ever see anyone hit quads, rarely see set over set, all common things I see onljne daily. Again I only plvy about 50,000 hands a year at most now and still see this stuff daily. I would just post hand histories every night. Maybe that I'll stop u guys from doubting.

even IF you played 250,000 live hands which is almost surely an overestimation, because: even pros dont work every week and play every hand every orbit so you are looking at closer to 22 hands per hour 48 weeks a year which pushes the number of hours you'd have to play per week into the low 20s which is more or less 60% of what a full time pro plays every year for 12 years, which doesn't include time spent waiting for tables and travel on your end. I'm willing to bet the actual number of hands is MAYBE in the low 100s and even if that isn't the case are you truly have played a top 1% of live hands in the world without going broke even though you are clearly an undisciplined rigtard so that isnt even close to likely, even if we assume ALL that is true

spoiler


ready for it

250,000 hands isn't really a sample either.


the thing is live poker the edges are bigger, so it takes a lot less time for ones edge to be shown. if you have a 1bb/100 edge online it might take a million hands to see that edge form. if you have 10bb edge, you'll probably get a solid feel on that in 100k hands.

thing is live poker is big blinds per hour, not per 100. so if you are making 4bb per hour at 2/5, thats approximately 14bb/100, depending on hands per hour. so you probably won't need very long to show you are a winner in live poker.

but we aren't talking winrates we are talking distribution. these numbers are a lot bigger. I played 50,000 hands on bovada where i made a straight more than 99.9% of people with my straight draws according to poker trackers adjusted luck bell curve. I got delt kings 4 times as often as aces in that sample. I never hit sets, I was in the bottom 15th percentile.

50,000 hands is a huge sample for live poker. anything can happen in that time. if you use selectively remember live poker anecdotes to make an argument you are already losing.

I ONLY PLAY ABOUT 50k LIVE HANDS PER YEAR is my new favourite quote itt

250,000 hands if u scroll up is 13 hours a week for 12 years live. Hardly out of the question.
Second according to the online poker world no one will ever hand enough hands do a big enough sample size.

And I just re read it, did u assume that I played 250,000 hands? I was in the tables do thvt I personally did not play 250,000 hands

And next we can call any site or email any site I play on. I am far from a losing player. U may not agree with my logic but I am a win in player with no HUD online. We can play vs each other if u like then u can decide if it u think I am a winner or not

What are some of your online SNs?

I'd be willing to prop bet that this guy can't even tie his own shoelaces unassisted, so no way am I buying that he beats any stakes higher than playmoney online.

Well, at least now there's evidence of what was already obvious - that relying on your memory and rough figures gets you results that aren't worth anyone's time.

250,000 live hands and you've never seen a royal flush or quads over quads? Well, that's interesting.

The odds of getting a royal flush in 7 cards are 1 in 30,939 - you "should have" received 8+ royal flushes, let alone everyone else you've played with. Of course a few of those royals should have been folded, but to have seen none?

According to this thread, the odds of seeing quads over quads 6 handed is ~1/40,000 - I'd assume this should be higher full ring.

Odds of getting quads are 1 in 594, so you should have made quads over 400 times yourself, and it would have happened thousands of times at your tables. Again, many would have been folded, but to say you hardly ever see them?

So is live poker rigged, or could your memory be imperfect?

Ok and I'd be will to prop bet u can't beat me in hu plo. U in?

I would consider that bet. Everything about him suggests he lives in an outdated time and does not recognize when the game has changed around him. He probably regards velcro as a form of cheating, so good chance he can still tie his shoes on his own.

Ok so doyle brunson has said he never had a royal flush. Is his memory bad too?
Yo bobo. U realize I am saying I even dealt 250,000 hands not actually called or raised or played 250,000 hands right ?

Let me know. Plo heads up. U guys are so good I am sure I got no chance to win even tho hudless I have one ofthe top win rates on bovada heads up.but hey I am sure u are so much better then the people I play. Should be fun. See if we can work out parameters we both agree on.

I stopped doing riggie heads up challenges after the last one (which I won) that took literally weeks and a ton of wasted time trying to get the riggie to show up. Despite winning, I vowed to never waste time like that again, and if I am not mistaken - you are an American who plays on Bodog (where I never have had an account) and you cannot play on Pokerstars, so if you think I am going to waste the time to create and deposit on Bodog to play you and be inflicted by your non stop whining outside of this thread, then you are even more out of touch with reality than previously thought.

Riggies do not matter in this industry, so once outside this thread I literally pay no attention to them, and want to spend zero time with them, since they tend to be whiny and miserable all the time. Just be happy I took the side that you can tie your own shoes. That certainly was not a slam dunk as wagers go.

Last bit of serious advice to you which I know someone as outdated as you will likely ignore. If poker is this important to you then invest the small amount needed in a database program to store your hands. You are not proving anything by not using one, other than some weird mental thing in your own head where you believe it is akin to having walked to and from school uphill against the wind in both directions. In the real world it shows you are not willing to do the basic things needed to compete in the online game. Stop being so lazy.

Your mental game is really bad. Your whining about a couple meaningless hands and your emotional heads up challenges are a byproduct of that weakness. Consider posting in this forum to get help in that area

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/26/psychology/

All the best.

you are clearly not much of a reader. no one in this thread is saying, or has said you participated in 250k hands. we are all, including you, saying you were dealt into that many hands.

also i might get banned for this but you literally didnt read the part of my post the proved that your claim to have played 250k hands is almost 100% a lie

so let me retype it because I have nothing better to do.

assuming you never took any days off and didnt leave the table for a single hand and played 14 hours a week for 13 years you MIGHT have played 200k, not 250k hands.

but here is the problem with your math.
you take breaks, you go to the bathroom, you get up to talk to friends, you wait to post. these are all hands you arent dealt in. it takes time to drive to the casino and get seated. so the actual number of hands you've played per hour is probably FAR from 30. its probably closer to 20.
so if you played 14 hours a week with no breaks for over a decade, when you include travel and wait times thats 20 hours a week, every week since george bushs first term. not very likely.

so if we assume you took 5 weeks off a year, which is more reasonable, it actually means you would have to have played more like 20 hours a week to have met your claimed number of hands. add travel times and wait times, thats like a 25 hour commitment almost every week for 13 years.


so basically what im saying is you think you've played 250k hands and the actual number is probably less than half of that.

I question my sanity for even typing this because you clearly are more interested in being right than finding the truth, you can barely read and you come off extremely arrogant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnin...3Kruger_effect
this will explain your entire life if you read it carefully.


also just to prove what a massive dingus you are I would like to point out you literally disproved your point by saying doyle hasnt ever had a royal because we know live isnt rigged and he probably has the biggest sample in the world, a lot of which is short handed. which means distribution is a big factor and you are a massive idiot.


that being said to get back to the main topic of course poker is rigged.

this is an excellently worded post and I reflect its content

I have no idea what Doyle Brunson has or hasn't said, been dealt, or how many hand he's played, so I could't tell you. I just gave you what I understand the math to be - if you disagree, please let me know.

But I'd say that it is extremely unlikely that Doyle has never had a royal flush, so I'd love to read/see where he said that.

Actually, I still have no idea what your involvement in those hands were, but it doesn't matter. Reading what you just said, apparently you were the dealer, in which case I wonder if you've been investigated for dealing 250,00 hands and no royal flushes. But whatever you meant - whether you dealt them, participated in all of them, or sat on your hands and watched them, the odds of a royal flush appearing in a given set of hands is exactly the same. The only thing that might change is where I said that you specifically should have received x number of some hand, but that doesn't change the overall number of that hand that someone at the table should have received.

I think u are wrong. And doyle and negreanu both said they have never had a royal flush

Didn't you offer HU4ROLLZ just the other day ? And then you instantly backed out like a little girl when the challenge was accepted ?

standard idiot on a forum etiquette, ignore the valid posts, repeat same argument, attack the man while doing it.

fwiw "u are wrong" is not an argument its just nonsense.

About what?

So now its Doyle AND Negreanu? Again, I'd love to see these quotes.