The problem with these dynamic, always changing player specific rigs is that the programming has to somehow account for all the combinations of players possible, along with their anticipated behaviors at the table. Ignoring whether these mystical programmers ever tell, how do they account for things like when the guy folds AA because he had to take a piss.
Imagine this rig trying to work on the Sunday Storm with tens of thousands of entries and players moving tables all the time, stacks changing all the time, player mixes on each table changing all the time, all while thousands of hands are being dealt in this tournament ever minute. Pretty impressive rig...
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Originally Posted by Doubleup28
It matters that its anonymous b/c you cannot decipher the winning players from the losing players. You can only account for yourself over the long term, not your opponents over the long term.
Fortunately most riggie theories use themselves as the primary character, so they can properly test their specific beliefs. Unfortunately, very few riggies every present a specific belief to test, and those that do usually dismiss the math behind testing their beliefs when it does not prove what they believe in. Most riggies have no hand history databases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doubleup28
Okay here is my theory using the RNG (Lets just assume this is possible for arguments sake)
Player X has won 200k in 2012 and 2013. In 2014, the site now decides to skew the RNG b/c they came to the conclusion that the most profitable players on their site are hurting their liquidity and will result in a decrease in total depositors over the long run. (This is their conclusion, lets not discuss whether its right or wrong)
It is now determined that Player X will only win with 1010-QQ (52%) of the time when facing an opponent with AK, as opposed to winning the normal amount of ~54% of the time if both hands go to showdown.
Also, Player X will only hit his flush draw 31% of the time as opposed to 34% of the time.
And so on...
Those are very specific and easy to test theories, and given this player has literally played millions of hands over the years he will have a nice sample to test it on. He would have around 5,000 hands each of 10-10, JJ and QQ to test per million hands played.
I have asked riggies many times to present their specific theories, but they never do what you just did, rather they ramble on about a few selected bad beats at best.
If you go to the probability forum and ask how to test your theories using a one million hand sample they will break it down for you. You can also go to the Holdem Manager forums and ask there how to test it with their software.
The more hands you have, the less likely there will be as big a deviation, and that is an element that riggies ignore when they believe that a simple tweak here and there will go undetected (been talked about a lot in this thread and the stats forum).
Also, do not believe someone at face value when they say they have won 200,000. That guy has made quite a few laughable claims in the past few months, often times contradicting himself in the process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doubleup28
Debunk my fictitious theory. (Like I said, assume programming is possible and my percentages equated to overall dollar amount won and lost)
Find a riggie who is willing to test something as specific as you propose. So far none are willing to commit to such a detailed rig like flush draws hit 2-3% less than they should. As a rule of thumb riggies are as vague as possible about their beliefs, except for the complete newbies like the guy who proposed he lost his 90% equity hands 90% of the time (his career consisted of a couple dozen freerolls and he believed KK was a 95% favorite preflop over a lower pair).
Feel free to debunk common sense and explain how this type of rig can work with thousands of players playing in ever changing combinations, and also explain how this programming has existed for hundreds of sites (remember, riggies believe all sites are rigged, not just Bodog) and nobody behind it has told the secret yet, even for rooms that have long since gone out of business.
All the best.
Last edited by Monteroy; 07-07-2014 at 07:16 PM.