good, guess the player has to be a good player then for receiving that many bad beats...oh wait, let me look at his winnings...well, could be better

Thank you.

What are your Allin Preflop *** stats?

Cash Allin Preflop - KK
Tracked: 238
Won: 123
Split: 8
EquityExpected: 59,66%
EquityOccured: 53,36%

Cash Allin Preflop (Being ahead of all other players)
Tracked: 1106
Won: 812
Split: 25
EquityExpected: 77,22%
EquityOccured: 74,59%

Cash + Tournament Allin Preflop (Being ahead of all other players)
Tracked: 5527
Won: 4113
Split: 203
EquityExpected: 77,27%
EquityOccured: 76,26%

The first data point you chose (that is an important point btw - you chose it because it is far off and does support your theory) seems pretty far off, I give you that. The two others are pretty close, or do I miss something? Certainly in no case something you could correctly recollect from memory, to address your point about riggies not having cognitive biases. Everyone has them.

Also, if you do an analysis, literally no data point will be exactly as expected. Some will be close, some below, some above expectation. A few will be pretty far off - that is exactly what someone analyzing a random sample would expect. To single out the data points that are far off in the desired direction makes no sense at all if you want a significant result.

To do a proper analysis, go ahead and formulate a work hypothesis like "My equity with big pairs all in preflop will be significantly smaller than expected the next 1000 instances", then play (collect data) and then analyse it. Looking at your data after collection, searching for the biggest deviations and singling them out is far from something a mathematician would ever call an analysis. Something you can find by definition in any random sample (single data points pretty far off) is nothing you can use to show it is not a random sample, you agree?

If I get that right you aren't even comparing expected with occurring equity here - you show a difference in the way players play between cash and tournament poker.
An example would be pushing a draw on the flop when you don't have the odds to just call and want to exploit the relatively huge fold equity compared to stacksize in a tournament, when you can just call in a cash game given the bigger implied odds. Getting it in with a draw will generally result in a way closer situation than getting it in with two made hands. That is exactly what one would expect, and exactly what you found.

Additionally, due to shallow stacks and comparibly small stack-to-pot ratio postflop-all-ins are generally closer equitywise in tourneys than in cash games, subsequently it's just logical that the worse hand wins more often.

You agree?


In conclusion, your "deeper analysis" is not deep at all, let alone in any way properly executed, plus you missapplied the concept of variance and compared apples to oranges.

The bigger your sample size gets, the closer your results are at expectation, which is exactly what one would expect given a random deal, and exactly what would not happen given a rig.

You wanted to show evidence that the deal is indeed fair, I assume? Well done, if so.

Yes I agree. It's just interesting, that this single point is with the second best starting hand in NL Holdem (KK). It is a point, most players complain about.

More situations of a possible Bad Beat might occure based on the way you explained it. But having a total of 25% Bad Beats in tournaments looks a little bit strange to me. This is just taking REAL Bad Beats into account, when both players are allin. I haven't even touched the draw beats, where players are not allin. Well, I guess this is just the nature of Poker.

With 5527 Allin Hands, being off 1-2% will throw you on the very left side of a bell curve. If your set, straight and flush draws expectations are on the very left with 1Mio hands as well, I am asking myself if such a player is even able to play with profit. Maybe he will need another 1 or 2 Mio hands, to get closer to expectation. To reach such an amount of hands, you either need money or time and luck.

im sick of everyday constant jokes to limit me

Im almost sure theres house players its to many jokes and abnormal
moves winning to much in late mtts with moves that wouldn t be normal
for the stats player shows...and too many times,,,


Something is wrong at pokerstars im almost sure...

So there are a small number of individual players who are winning their monster hands too much ?

Why is that interesting? The chance that someone runs below expectation with KK is 50% - how is it interesting that you were in that 50%?

Many Situations in tourneys are like 55/45 for example, you would expect 45% "bad beats" in them alone the way you define them. I can not see how 25% would look strange to anyone given the huge amount of preflop allins in tourneys, where the underdog rarely has less than 20% equity and in fact in most cases at least 30%.

If you define "bad beat" the way you did, 25% is pretty much what I would expect to see.

If all these were on the very left, then the overall equity would be so far off that a rig would be proven beyond reasonable doubt. Standard deviation grows with the square root of samplesize (i. e. the bell curve gets slimmer with a growing sample), that means that the same relative deviation could not be accepted as caused by variance.

Or maybe, you know, the good players adjust their strategy as you get into the late stages of a mtt.

thats not true. Certain players on that site run better than others, that's a fact. My account is notorious for being dealt aq in blinds late or near the bubble and losing to 3 outs. Last night I was deep in a mtt int he money and 3 outted two hands in a row all in pre meanwhile my friend is up 500k plus and laughs at how good he runs. It's the nature of the beast at stars. Some people are just more skilled at 3 outs holding in games than others and avoiding crippling blows to dominated hands.

fyp

So you say you gotta run good to win a tourney? And that one player runs better than another player?

Shocking.

Yes yes, anything rigged for certain players is just variance. I know the routine.

I didn't say that, but if you say that player A running better than player B is hinting at a boomswitch for player A and a doomswitch for player B then you are not very smart, to put it mildly.

Then again, that is obvious for quite some time. Would you expect that everyone runs exactly the same? lol

It amazes me that you still have no clue what a 3 outter is.

No its not that , its incridible that the ammount of jokes increase in intensity and paranormal when im near final tables that have 4 digits +


I mean i can deal with the fact that i have a set of 6 on flop and my opponent goes all in shows set of 2 and runner runner flush me , or when on turn i have 3 of a kind with ace kicker and he goes to full house on river , i always think its variance , altough it weird this **** keeps happening for 5k games when im near my best Final tables.....


What i cannot deal is the massive ammount of psychyc people who can predict future and adjust to that single play only with a specific unique style with ranges like 26 up after showing 7-5 stats after hundred hands , do theire special move and proced to tight style , really the more the years pass the more i noticed this... .

Hope u understand now .

Otatop is here, Wiki and J are sure to follow.

I would also like to know if this is normal ,

Requested all in KK report from PS and got this reply :

"For your information, KK is expected to win about 82% of the time against a single random hand, but against any Ax, that percentage actually drops to 68.5% due to the potential for an Ace on the board. "

they only sent me for last month not much hands , but its pretty much the same racio all months , this last report showed this results : Total ∑ = 58 43 (74.1%)

Is it normal to have this results ???

one occurance that should be investigated is the frequency of AQ dealt 3 levels before the buubble of mtt's. FOr 2 years the frequency of aq dealt vs aj or ak has got to be 20-1 difference. Not sure what the fascination with this rig is but it is there.

so nothing weird on the KK matter?

its joke this bull**** , its not just natural tendency for padrons humans have , even holdem manager and ps reports keeps telling me something is wrong , and i know i have being limited so close so many times , its total bull**** cant buy this anymore i give up on ps

No.

KK is expected to win 82% of the time against a random hand. Surely your preflop all-ins with KK are not up against a range of all hands.

For example,

KK - 74.31%
66+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ - 25.69%

Thus, your winning percentage with KK looks remarkably normal.

im not sure about stats , thats why i ask , but one thing im sure , the nut miracles against me when it really mattered after 5k tornaments and the ammount of rng psychics that seem to be increasing

Unless you're running some new advanced beta version of holdem manager that flashes up warnings for you then I can't see how you can claim HM is telling you something is wrong and then claim that you're not sure about stats.

It's problem