Quote:
Originally Posted by GTheJester
The easy answer is that a rig could be evident in your hand histories but you write it off as variance.
The bummer with that, from the riggies POV, is that when you take an
actual sample that is some specific size the specifics of confidence limits are mathematically sound and are used daily for many purposes around the world to control and direct life critical systems.
They are not some mystical mumbo-jumbo that someone can wave at any evidence that he or she does not like to make it go away.
Quote:
Or perhaps you are quoting from poker tracker/holdem manager statistics that are created by monitoring a corrupted system!
It is up to the person making the complaint to provide evidence that is trusted both by himself and those that he is trying to convince.
Quote:
Unless you have a million hands worth of live poker histories to validate your online histories how can you prove that what you are seeing is statistically correct.
You don't necessarily need 1m hands - depending on the degree of the rig. What you
do need is a statistically valid sample.
And if you don't have a statistically valid sample then there is no way that you can claim to have reliably detected a rig. What's true for the analyst using maths is true for the player looking for patterns in their head.
Quote:
All you are saying is that because no one has proved it is rigged then its not rigged.
No. What we are saying is that because there a hundreds of thousands of players with billions of HH's between them and a lot of those players seem to be very suspicious that the deal is rigged, the fact that
not one single such player has ever provided statistically significant evidence of a rig indicates that there is a high
probability that there is no rig.
Quote:
We are not talking here of a site dealing out 5 aces in a hand. The hands would play out normally but with an inherent desired outcome; how or to what ends we do not know.
Well, one of the ends would have to be that some player wins less than he should have done and as soon as that happens over a reasonable sample size then the rig will yield to statistical analysis.
Quote:
So you can't win an argument just by asking for evidence contrary to what you think; you should justify what you think by giving some evidence.
Hundreds of thousands of players, billions of hand histories, no credible evidence of rigging ever provided.
That is evidence.
Quote:
I can come up with an example of how a game might be rigged but whether the sites would be doing it that way is another question.
OK, come up with an example of how it could be rigged where I cannot explain how such rigging could be detected. Unless you can do that you are dead in the water.
Quote:
Could be variance but thats my choice!
Indeed.
And no one is stopping people who believe that others are using mystical waves for mind control from wearing foil helmets.