Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo_Boy
1) If you know you are running bad it is no surprise to find that when you anlayse that sample of hands, you are running below equity. Thats not to say that the numbers aren't relevant but saying they're a bit low is hardly surprising on a biased sample. What are the numbers like on your whole database? Are you suggesting that the 50bb tables specifically could be "rigged"?
2) To paraphrase, you say that it is surprising how "bad" players are winning and "good" players are losing as if they are two separate events when they obviously are not. Again, your sample is based on a biased sample where you know the most statistically significant player in the database is a "good" losing player so the reults are unsurprising. What are the numbers like on your whole database? Are you suggesting that the 50bb tables specifically could be "rigged"?
3) Why do people use these equity buckets to describe their EV which can skew the results? Can't you do this more accurately with PT/HEM?
1 - It's probably more than my computer can take right now to dig out my entire EV. I do however have those samples for this year alone, which counts 100BB games and hands on Full Tilt as well as Stars. It's similar, but a little more standard with most of the numbers right around the middle. Only 50% is right at 50% and 70% is right at 70% for the year. All others are in the 3-7% range.
2 - Your right, I just admitted in my last post that I considered that one might = the other, but wasn't positive that one definitely = the other. I haven't had much of a reason to look at these things previously, because I never noticed that almost all the regs I was sitting with had negative BB/100 and the biggest stack was the loosest player the majority of the time.
It just seems that all hell has broken loose and consistantly stayed on that pace since the 50BB games were instituted. I'm not making an accusation as much as asking what other people are seeing in these games. I'd be very happy to see other responses that show very normal samples in these games.
3 - My PT EV graph shows the same thing, but it doesn't tell me the specific hands. Unless you mean something different. But I also openly admit that EV calcs in total aren't a very good representation of the entire picture.
For example, I went through yet another mind blowing session today where my EV was actually slightly positive for a change. Things it did show...
- PFR 99, psycho min-3bets, I shove, he calls K2s. Hits his K.
- 66 vs 68 vs AA on 68J flop. 3 way all-in. A on the river.
- Same psycho as above. Does it again, but this time he has me crushed AJ vs JJ. Obviously this is the one I win so it looks like I play bad, but run good.
- 88 vs AA all-in on 89T flop. A on the turn.
Things EV didn't show
- I 3bet KK, villain calls. A on flop. He wins with A8o. (Says he had me on KK when he called too. Go figure.)
- Raise KK 6BB vs limpers. Get 1 call. Monotone flop A-hi. Villain has KQ with K of suit. Makes flush in a checked down pot.
- I raise KTs BTN, SB calls. Flops flush with Q5s on KJx monotone flop.
- 25BB stack limps BTN, I raise 5xBB 99. Flop 257r, bet and call. Villain has 1/3p bet left and hits trip 5s on turn with K5s before we get it in.
- 20BB stack, calls 3bet for 50% of stack with 98s. Flops flush+OESD draws before calling the rest off on a 1/2p bet on the flop.
- 3B AKs and get called in 2 spots. Flop A75. I bet $7 into a $12p and have $8 left. 1 caller. Turn is 6. He calls last $8 and turns over 66.
So yeah, EV is definitely only part of the equation at best, but it's the only quantifiable part because there's no way to measure the other stuff.