Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,502 34.89%
No
5,607 55.86%
Undecided
929 9.25%

08-24-2010 , 12:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
Have you checked them on PTR? You have a decent amount of hands on them, but you probably have >10% of their total. Not saying that it doesn't seem weird, but your sample for them isn't really enough to draw any conclusions from.

Again, the sample is waaaay too small, and is that winrate the average of 85 different players? If it's the average the 45%+ VPIP players only need to be up what, about 2 buyins total? You could have one or two fish who built up 4 or 5 buyins on a table canceling out 80 other fish who were slight losers.
I kind of like to stay away from PTR because I thought it was frowned upon by the sites. Also thought that you needed to pay to look up players now. I could be wrong and may try tomorrow.

The sample sizes on opponents is small admittedly, but it's all I got right now. Unfortunately, by the time I ended up with sizeable samples on other players, I'll be broke if it keeps panning out this way.

Not that the 12 players with 850-3K hands is sizeable either, it's 1-6 sessions for me, but it does seem remarkable that only 1 is winning.

What I'm really hoping, is that other players in these games will chime in so we can either get an aggregate look and dismiss it (most likely, I hope) or say that it needs to be looked into. You know, show me something normal.

PS - Just checked.....48 of the 85 in the 45+ VP$IP range are winners.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneOut
I kind of like to stay away from PTR because I thought it was frowned upon by the sites. Also thought that you needed to pay to look up players now. I could be wrong and may try tomorrow.
They don't like people talking about it or buying hands, but PTR's been involved in uncovering quite a few cheaters recently, so it's a good tool for things like that. You get 10 free searches a day, and the searches let you see how many hands PTR's tracked and what the person's winrate is.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 06:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneOut
I may be starting to become biased, 19 losing days out of your last 25 will do that to you, but I've been becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the low limit 50BB games on Stars.

Yes, I'm seeing suited rags turn into flushes in my sleep and I feel like I'm being raised by limpers way more often than possible when I flop top pair or better from the BB, but I'm not going to just start posting random hands where I got it all in as a massive favorite and lost. I don't want to make accusations or even use the "r" word. I'm not a computer whiz or super math genius, I just want to present the patterns forming in my database and hopefully someone can interpret them and tell me that it's not as alarming as it seems.

My history
I've been playing for about 4 years somewhat seriously (but not a hardcore grinder) and have been about a 2.5 PTBB/100 winner over several 100K hands from NL25-NL100. Not a superstar, but I consider it respectable.

I've played almost exclusively at the 50BB tables since they've opened because the play is horrid (a pair = the nuts), but after 70,858 hands I'm a 0.55 BB/100 loser. Just about an informative sample size, but I don't think I've forgotten how to play all of a sudden.

Why I might be biased
I'm currently on a 37 50BB stack downswing. I've lost more than 60% of over 50 sessions (usually 500-800 hands) played this month. Yet, I'm starting every session with a fresh mind set and don't believe my play is suffering. Although, I do normally feel sick now whenever I'm dealt a premium hand and the highest VP$IP at the table (usually sitting on 4 stacks) also has been dealt 2 cards.

I find myself staring at the screen and mumbling to myself after sessions way more often than is mentally healthy lately, so maybe I'm just losing it and reading too much into things.

EV
I know it's not a perfect measure, maybe not even a good one. It might even be worse because it doesn't count the pots I get out flopped or turned before getting my last cent in, but none the less it's one of the few visible measures I have.

852 BB -EV this month, 1006 BB -EV in all - not the worst I've ever run so I know a bit about variance. And I've ended at least 150+ BB -EV each of the last 5 weeks.

Broken down into %'s when I get the $$$ in...
5-9% - 11% over 63AI
10-19% - 14% over 132AI
20-29% - 23% over 118AI
30-39% - 34% over 101AI
40-49% - 44% over 192AI
50-59% - 50% over 163AI
60-69% - 63% over 154AI
70-79% - 70% over 179AI
80-89% - 85% over 188AI
90-95% - 91% over 66AI
Nothing that looks terrible individually, but strangely almost everything on the lower end. Frustrating for sure, even if nothing to get too worked up about.

If this were it, I'd leave it as.....I run bad, life will get better eventually, but......

The most disturbing
While the above could just be a bad run of luck, the following patterns alarm me the most.

The other regs at 50BB
There are 12 players in my database with 850+ hands, your standard regs with standard reg stats (includes a few rat holers though - wish I could filter them out, but don't know how). Yeah, I know reg doesn't mean good, but they should be better than the fish, right? Yet, only 1 of the top 12 regs is in profit. (If I dig further, there's 1 winner in the next 4 before I see a couple more in about the 700h range.)

We're all just running bad at the same time?

The "fish"
Players with 45%+ VP$IP with 75 or more hands (there are 85 total) are running +1.74 BB/100.

So maybe we're all just running bad and they're all running good? This is really the most concerning to me.

The winners
I filtered for just ANYBODY winning 2+ BB/100 with 100+ hands and these were the average stats......

24/14 w/ 32% WTSD. Seems like someone who calls a little too often and has a bit of trouble folding their hand, but this is what constitutes a winner at low limit 50BB.

Stars response
Just because I'll try anything to break a losing streak, and because it worked in the past (twice my losing streak ended right after I e-mailed them) I questioned Stars about these games (really I just begged them to stop......and please give me a bonus).

While I didn't expect much, the reply was very disappointing, and maybe even bordering incompetent? Besides sending me to a couple of links on their own website verifying their RNG, they directed me to an independent study.

The alarming thing was that the study was done over only 100K hands in 2003!!! Alarming why? Because....
A) It had nothing to with 50BB games....or anything that has happened since Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP ME. It's like saying I can prove the Florida Marlins are the best team in baseball because they won the WS in 2003.
B) It sets a benchmark of proof at 100K hands. Are they saying that I've successfully proven something if I run bad for another 30K hands?

I'm of the belief that it would be almost impossible to prove anything for sure one way or the other because you can't see what hands your opponents are not showing down. So how can you really tell how often 2 suited rags hit the board? Sure you can tell how often certain flops/turns/rivers occur, but you can't say for certain how often hole cards connect if you can't see them.

But I do have concerns about why a site may be encouraged to fiddle with games (max rake in low limit games, difficulty in redepositing after busting, ability to procure a US license with probable regulation passing in the near future).

So, should I be alarmed by anything above or am I just not happy about running bad?

Not what you'd call conclusive evidence, but you've certainly dug up some worrying trends.

Your all-in percentages do indeed seem a bit low, (and vice-versa, high for the 5-9% stat.) Do you have stats for 0.01-5% and 95-99.9% ?

The fact that poor players seem to be thriving in general is also something worrying and something I've worried about myself in the past.

The site's generic response was a bit feeble as well, shows a bit of a lack of care and respect for their customers.

I'd encourage you to look into things further, if you have the time and resources.


It's a difficult situation. For anyone to take seriously claims of wrongdoing by a site, they expect you to gather masses of evidence which is a time-consuming thing to do. Also, as I think you yourself said, you could indeed run out of money, before you get the chance to gather enough evidence.

As well as that, we can't generally see what other people are being dealt, so we really have no great picture of what is truly going on at the table. Someone who is running FAR BETTER than they should, is unlikely to be on an internet forum shouting about it and demanding answers. So there could be lots of these people out there who are getting far better dealing than they should and either don't realise or understandably don't want to come forward and provide evidence.


Keep us updated.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
The fact that poor players seem to be thriving in general is also something worrying and something I've worried about myself in the past.
I thought you said that you were not thriving.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 07:20 AM
lol at the idea of poor players thriving... I don't think I've ever seen a guy I have at 40 vpip or higher over any kind of reasonable sample size show up as profitable
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
lol at the idea of poor players thriving... I don't think I've ever seen a guy I have at 40 vpip or higher over any kind of reasonable sample size show up as profitable

What does the 'vpip' mean ??
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
What does the 'vpip' mean ??
When are you going to learn to use google instead of continually doing this 'I'm so f**king stupid and useless I need to have everything explained for me' routine.

It's pathetic.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 07:51 AM
Honestly, I don't see how any poker player these days can not know what VPIP is and have a chance at competing on a level playing field with other online poker players. There's a lot of reading to do.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 08:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneOut
Broken down into %'s when I get the $$$ in...
5-9% - 11% over 63AI
10-19% - 14% over 132AI
20-29% - 23% over 118AI
30-39% - 34% over 101AI
40-49% - 44% over 192AI
50-59% - 50% over 163AI
60-69% - 63% over 154AI
70-79% - 70% over 179AI
80-89% - 85% over 188AI
90-95% - 91% over 66AI
Nothing that looks terrible individually, but strangely almost everything on the lower end.
The actual equity averages might be on the lower ends too. Your ranges are too big, just use the actual average for each set. Then calculate a confidence interval around that average to see if the result is actually "strange" at all, or well within a couple of standard deviations.

For example you have 101 AI from 30-39%. If the actual average were 35% or 35 hands, then 2 standard deviations is +/- 10 hands. That means 95% of the time, the result will be between 25 and 45 hands, or between 25% and 45% wins. So anything in that range is totally normal, and anything between 30-39% isn't strange or noteworthy at all.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 08:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
Honestly, I don't see how any poker player these days can not know what VPIP is and have a chance at competing on a level playing field with other online poker players. There's a lot of reading to do.

When you're playing against a large number of players who don't know what 'fold' is, not knowing what 'VPIP' is certainly shouldn't stop you from being able to compete with them.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneOut
PS - Just checked.....48 of the 85 in the 45+ VP$IP range are winners.
I like your approach to this, really refreshing

Now about the 48/85 fish - if you and the other regs in the hands you played are running bad, it is only a natural consequence that the fishes in those hands will run good. Beause you guys play against them, you lose to them when running bad.

Because this is affecting your mental state, which no one can blame you for, you can just buy a few million hands for the games you play in and run the tests on them just to clear your mind. You'd pay less than 1 buy in and if you find the results within expectation it will win you more than that I'm sure
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
When you're playing against a large number of players who don't know what 'fold' is, not knowing what 'VPIP' is certainly shouldn't stop you from being able to compete with them.
Yet you seem unable to do just that, compete with them
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
When you're playing against a large number of players who don't know what 'fold' is, not knowing what 'VPIP' is certainly shouldn't stop you from being able to compete with them.
And yet you seem to be unable to do so profitably.

This means that you must be a very poor player.

It should also, if you have the slightest intelligence, also suggest to you that maybe you should learn what some of these basic terms mean.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
The fact that poor players seem to be thriving in general is also something worrying and something I've worried about myself in the past.
They seem to be thriving over ~100 hands, which is what keeps them playing. If poker was pure skill like chess, they'd just lose constantly and give up. It's their poor play being rewarded occasionally that keeps them playing, live and online.
Quote:
The site's generic response was a bit feeble as well, shows a bit of a lack of care and respect for their customers.
I'd rather they just have a boilerplate reply to "zomg you guys are rigged" emails than spend a bunch of time on them.
Quote:
It's a difficult situation. For anyone to take seriously claims of wrongdoing by a site, they expect you to gather masses of evidence which is a time-consuming thing to do. Also, as I think you yourself said, you could indeed run out of money, before you get the chance to gather enough evidence.
Luckily for us, evil datamining sites can be used for less evil purposes, such as seeing someone's long term stats without going broke or having to play thousands of hands against them.
Quote:
As well as that, we can't generally see what other people are being dealt, so we really have no great picture of what is truly going on at the table.
Seeing everyone's hole cards is irrelevant, as long as you have a big enough sample of your own.
Quote:
Someone who is running FAR BETTER than they should, is unlikely to be on an internet forum shouting about it and demanding answers. So there could be lots of these people out there who are getting far better dealing than they should and either don't realise or understandably don't want to come forward and provide evidence.
Never heard of BBV then, huh?
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
What does the 'vpip' mean ??
Voluntarily put $ in the pot. How on earth can you not know that? Someone playing 45% VPIP is putting money in the pot by choice 45% of the ime, so blinds aren't included.

PFR stands for preflop raise, just to head off a potential follow up.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 10:12 AM
Online poker is so rigged, I have never won a single hand and I have played over 75,000 hands now.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
They seem to be thriving over ~100 hands.


Seeing everyone's hole cards is irrelevant, as long as you have a big enough sample of your own.


Voluntarily put $ in the pot. How on earth can you not know that?


I didn't realise that the sample size the person was talking about was as small as 100 hands. If that's the case, it obviously doesn't show a lot, but it's still strange that so many decent players would be struggling and so many bad players thriving.


I'd disagree that seeing everyone else's hole cards is irrelevant. An exaggerated example, but I could be getting dealt hands randomly and my opponent could be getting dealt pocket aces every 3rd hand and I'd be none the wiser. It's very difficult to know what's really going on because of this hidden information, (opponent(s)' cards.)


I didn't know what 'VPIP' meant, because I'd never come across it before. I play primarily heads up, where I assume it's not such an important statistic ? Would that be right, or is it as important in heads up ?

It says on google it's a statistic used by PokerTracker, which as explained previously I had never used before. Thanks for explaining the meaning though.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ComplexP
Yet you seem unable to do just that, compete with them

Haha, based on what ?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
I didn't realise that the sample size the person was talking about was as small as 100 hands. If that's the case, it obviously doesn't show a lot, but it's still strange that so many decent players would be struggling and so many bad players thriving.
What evidence do you have that that's the case?

...

Thought so.


Quote:
I'd disagree that seeing everyone else's hole cards is irrelevant. An exaggerated example, but I could be getting dealt hands randomly and my opponent could be getting dealt pocket aces every 3rd hand and I'd be none the wiser. It's very difficult to know what's really going on because of this hidden information, (opponent(s)' cards.)
Only if you are completely clueless about statistical distributions.

And completely lacking in common sense.

If he's getting pocket aces every third hand don't you think that there's just the tiniest chance that they are going to make it showdown slightly more often than a more usual distribution would indicate?

Quote:
I didn't know what 'VPIP' meant, because I'd never come across it before. I play primarily heads up, where I assume it's not such an important statistic ? Would that be right, or is it as important in heads up ?
Are you seriously saying that, even now you've had the meaning explained to you, you don't understand its importance?

Just how hopeless a case are you?

Quote:
It says on google it's a statistic used by PokerTracker, which as explained previously I had never used before.
You mean you half read one explanation. VPIP is in no way exclusive to PokerTracker. Just more evidence of you utter cluelessness.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend
Haha, based on what ?
Based on your own posts.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:12 PM
1678 pages indicates this will never end. It does generate the most activity on the site though so a good place for ad placement.

So, why doesn't one of the non riggies (who is a winning player) take one of the riggies (who is a losing player and one of the more vocal ones), teach him how to win and have them admit to such here.....

OR

Find a neutral location, have a non riggie (winner) play on a riggie (loser) account to prove that accounts cannot be doom switched.

Has this been attempted?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMVeteran60
1678 pages indicates this will never end. It does generate the most activity on the site though so a good place for ad placement.

So, why doesn't one of the non riggies (who is a winning player) take one of the riggies (who is a losing player and one of the more vocal ones), teach him how to win and have them admit to such here.....

OR

Find a neutral location, have a non riggie (winner) play on a riggie (loser) account to prove that accounts cannot be doom switched.

Has this been attempted?
Seems like a lot work.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMVeteran60
It does generate the most activity on the site though
No it doesn't.

The thread: "Person to person transfers. [The first post is a "MUST read" for the Posting Rules]" grows much faster.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by batair
Seems like a lot work.
Actually sounds easier than 1 side proving the other wrong with incomplete data.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:42 PM
Something odd/bizarre/wrong I've noticed today on iPoker. Not sure if it would suggest they've got their actual percentages wrong, but........

When players are all-in and their cards are revealed, the percentage chances of each player winning and the percentage chance of a tie come up on the screen.

When a player has 4 outs on the river, (4/44 remaining cards,) a 9.09% shot, this is given as 10% on screen.

I thought this was strange, but thought maybe they just round up numbers below 50 and round down numbers above 50, rather than rounding to the nearest number. Bit silly, but whatever.

Then, however, I saw a player all-in with 3 outs on the river. That is 3/44 remaining cards, a 6.82% shot. This, for some reason, was given on screen as a 6% shot.

I can't understand this. Firstly, I hope it's just the percentages on screen that aren't in line with each other and not the actual percentage chance that it happens.

Secondly, why on earth and how on earth would you end up with a system which rounds down on some occasions and up on others ? Especially when it's a computer which is doing this, surely the computer would be programmed to, (in normal cases,) round to the nearest number, or either always round up, or always round down.

Have I missed something ?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
08-24-2010 , 12:52 PM
Could they be accounting for the other player's hole cards? Seems stupid to do so, but they do have that information...
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote

      
m