Quote:
Originally Posted by vicyafos
Not my post, credit Kyyberi
The calculations are there.
Juice is the amount that insurance pays over the EV0 amount. If EV0 insurance would pay $5, then if you pay $5,50 for it there is $0,50 juice. The one who gives the insurance makes profits from the juice.
In the example there is an all-in on the turn, 100bb stacks and hero has 85% equity.
Let's repeat the situation 100 times and hero wins 85 of those.
Without the insurance
85 times hero wins pot of 200,5bb = 17042,5bb
15 times hero loses 100bb stack = -1500bb
After 100 repetitions hero has 15542,5bb
With insurance
85 times hero wins pot of 200,5bb, but pays insurance of 17,7bb = 15538bb
15 times hero loses but keeps his stack = 0bb
After 100 repetitions hero has 15538bb.
Difference is about 0,05bb per hand. If the insurance cost is 1c lower, it would be the same difference but benefits the player. So it's uite understandable that it's rounded up.
I can't explain it any clearer. Insurance is EV0 so it doesn't affect your winnings directly in the long run.
Are you sure about this? After reading this I told myself, why not swing less and take the insurance.
Came this pot in PLO :
All-in on the flop for a total pot of : 1091.54$
I didnt pay too much attention to the numbers they gave, as they go quickly and quoted text above said it was almost neutral ev, if not neutral ev.
Using cardsplayer odds calculator,
my equity on the flop: 67.44%
his equity on the flop: 32.56%
Pot on the flop : 1091.54$
my equity value : 736.13$
my insurance payout : 543.27$
Which represents almost half of the value of the pot. Hmm?
I lost the pot, got 543.27$, winner got 1091.54$, as per HH. I also dont understand when in the HH the rake is taken.
Anyhow, there is a massive difference in my insurance money : 543.27$ and my equity money : 736.13$
And we said above; is it almost neutral EV to take insurance? What am I missing?
*
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Ahhh, I could edit above but I get it.
You dont get your equity, nor your equity minus a fee.
If you lose, you simply keep your stack.
Got it. Misread or got confused, Ill leave the top post for information, just in case it helps somebody if he scrolls this.
Last edited by Mike Haven; 01-07-2018 at 05:31 AM.
Reason: 2 posts merged