Quote:
Originally Posted by udbrky
I think there is a bit of faulty logic here. Many are saying that if we went back to less software, then there would be more fish and a bigger boom, since that is what it was like in the pre-software explosion boom.
However, correlation does not always imply causation.
Many? I'd be interested in who. Seems to me this is a straw man, people aren't saying restrict s/w and the boom returns. Some are saying that it would help by making a more level playing field for newbies but nobody is discounting the passage of time, the churn of a generation of potential players, the better training info, the economy, black friday etc etc.
The point is that S/W is moving on, it is making the situation worse. Restricting it is no panacea, no rewind to 2005. The point being made is that if we don't restrict s/w it will kill the game. By increasing the gap between the reg and the newbie/rec the s/w has already helped burn through that genertion of new sign ups either by eating them alive with scanning s/w seating scripts and more or by deterring people from playing at all because they know that it is not a level playing field.
Now you are right that the skill gap will still play, that the dediated, the hard working (the full time) player will still win but for the fish restricting the s/w increases the variance of the game, it means that sometimes they may have a winning session.
If you play roulette, the worst of the worst table mug games, you will have a winning session about 30% of the time. That is what makes roulette sustainable, it is why roulette as lasted centuries and still dwarfs poker in the casino world not just in terms of casino revenues but in terms of popularity.
I would be very interested if one of our stat geniuses could tell me what proportion of winning sessions a fish has. Not the worst of fish, a guy who gets the game at a basic level and has played a bit. A guy with say a month of play twice a week for a few hours. A guy with a job, you know the guy that pays all the bills for the site and the winning players. How often do they win?
I'm convinced that for your home game hero venturing online Roulette offers more play, more wins, more enjoyment...more variance than poker. OK the guy may be a fan of cards not bouncing balls but Blackjack with a far lower house edge vs even just a basic strategy but that just makes poker's problem worse.
It may be that even with software clipped the edge achieved against the newbie by the new techniques of the better players (plus the rake) still leaves poker at a huge disadvantage but today for a guy who wants to gamble and has a full time job (so can't be the super reg of your motivational appeal to hard work) the best advice is....don't play poker. I don't think that was the case 4/5 years ago but today? Are they really getting anything for their money? An enjoyable game? The occassional win? or are they bumhunted to death even in the micros by multitabling nit regs who can do what they do in large part because of the power of the software.
That gap, that lack of variance for newer players needs to be improved or the game has no appeal for those paying the bills. The good reg does not need the extra advantage of all the s/w bells and whistles. He laready has an edge. Taking that edge and then adding powerful software to it to create a less even position between the rec and the reg...kills the game by killing the golden goose.
Finally, when even HUSNG regs see software destroying their game, when bots/cybots are destroying mid stakes PLO some have woken up to the need to clip the software advantage. Don't worry though, if it happens the skill edge remains.