I seriously doubt it...I mean bad players can help your ev by calling another reg too loose in a hand that you're not in.

Think of it this way, if there's one player who's expectation is -10% and the other 5 players are of equal skill, then each other player's expectation is +2% (disregarding rake). If there are 2 players who are -10%, then the other 4 good players would be +5%. It's really as simple as that.

You're right. Just normal results oriented thinking.

Spitecalls lower EV for the two involved, but I have to assume he spitecalls with the same frequency against me as against other people.

It's only if you somehow piss off a bad player and he begins spitecalling you and only you that it would be better off to have a semi decent player instead of him.

Ya there's definitely value to not being a jackass to people in the hypers.

George,

will you be betting sports when you are in vegas for NAPT?

No, funny enough I've actually never made a bet at a Vegas sportsbook. I did all of it online.

PokerStars Game #39205947823: Tournament #239369346, $86.00+$1.72 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (100/200) - 2010/02/04 3:59:29 ET
Table '239369346 1' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: jigga_wigga1 (1160 in chips)
Seat 3: TheWalrus419 (1310 in chips)
Seat 6: Jorj95 (530 in chips)
jigga_wigga1: posts the ante 40
TheWalrus419: posts the ante 40
Jorj95: posts the ante 40
Jorj95: posts small blind 100
jigga_wigga1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
TheWalrus419: raises 1070 to 1270 and is all-in
Jorj95: folds
jigga_wigga1: calls 920 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (150) returned to TheWalrus419
*** FLOP *** [5c 8s 9d]
*** TURN *** [5c 8s 9d] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [5c 8s 9d 6c] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jigga_wigga1: shows [Ac Qd] (a pair of Aces)
TheWalrus419: shows [5d 7h] (a straight, Five to Nine)
TheWalrus419 collected 2460 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2460 | Rake 0
Board [5c 8s 9d 6c Ah]
Seat 1: jigga_wigga1 (big blind) showed [Ac Qd] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: TheWalrus419 (button) showed [5d 7h] and won (2460) with a straight, Five to Nine
Seat 6: Jorj95 (small blind) folded before Flop



thoughts on jigga_wigga's call

I'm not going to discuss strategy here in my Well regarding whether the call was correct or not, but obviously from my standpoint I was pretty glad he called.

C'mon George, can't you give us a little sumthin? That's what a well is for, so we can pick your brain...

This is an interesting hand. Walrus can and should be shoving fairly wide. If he is shoving around 55 to 65% of his hands, AQo has equity around 63%. (if he's shoving 100% the equity is still only 64.4%)

So by calling, jigga has around 63% to win, which would give him an almost 100% chance to win. I have seen crazy stuff happen, so lets say 95% to win if he wins the AQ hand. So by calling, I would estimate jiggas chances of winning $127.28 profit is about 60% if he calls with AQ.



If jigga folds here, he has 920 left, 140 of which is put in the next hand, leaving him 780 in the small blind. Jorj will put in 240 of his 530, leaving him just 290, enough to fold through the big blind and small blind if he chooses - assuming the blinds don't escalate to 200/400/80.

Now jorj will probably be calling off his stack in the BB most situations if either the button minraises or especially if jigga puts him in.

At this point it's hard to estimate the odds of jorj losing since it really depends on the next hand dealt. Assuming one of the other players puts jorj in with a top 33% hand and jorj calls off 100% of his hands, then he has about 38% to win. Thus ~62% of the time jorj loses and jigga wins the $127.28.

Now, even if jorj wins here, jigga still may have chips and a good chance of winning.


I spent way too much time thinking about this already, I gotta get back to work

But I would probably call because it's AQ and jorj runs too good not to double up with j-4o on the next hand!

Yea, just the fact that jorj folded here is almost enough to get it in w/ ATC

J/K of course, but a nice post from Nuk! Wanna do a well?

Jorj

Do you ever go to Casino Arizona to play poker or do you just go to Vegas if you wanna play live?

I used to play at Casino AZ pretty much every day from like 2001-2004, but I've only been back once since then for the AZ State Championship in 2008. It's just way too convenient to play online, since I live an hour away from there and it seems like I always had to wait to get in a game there. Anyway, it's pretty hard to multitable hyperturbos at the casino.

Heya how warm is it in Arizona now =)?

Probably in the 70s if I had to guess, no idea what that is in Celsius though.

Hehe I just looked it up and it said 62, guess I was a bit off.

Less than 24 hours ago I couldn't tell who Jorj95 was if a sadistic SS was pulling my fingernails with pliers. Don't take it personal though; despite being playing online poker for 6 years, the last 2 of them full time, I didn't know who Elky was until last WCOOP. I just don't follow the "scene" that much I guess.

Anyways, I spent the last few hours reading this entire well, and found it to be an extremely interesting read, which has given me some ideas about what I could do this year with my time.

I guess I don't have any questions for you, just wanted to stop by, say hi, and wish you good luck, as you seem to be good people for what I could grasp from the tone of your responses.

LOL no offense taken, I couldn't care less if someone doesn't know who I am. I don't have any delusions that I'm some hugely famous person, even in the poker world.

Glad ou enjoyed the read.

jorj,

have you had any input on trying to get the $428.40's available every day? It was all right when they had them from Sunday night- Tuesday night, but is there any reason why they don't have them all the time? Guess they don't want you to break 5M VPP this year?

Hey Jorj, kudos for keeping this open for so long, although I expect by this stage you quite enjoy having this pseudo-blog!

A few questions:

*You said you only got HEM in November '09, did you use any HH tracker or stats program prior to this, and since youve had it how much would you say it has directly improved your ROI?

*Earlier, you discussed 2500 sngs not being a substantial sample at the hypers. At which stage would you say one is able to tell with a good degree of accuracy as to whether they are profitable or not? .. 5000, 10000, 20000?

*Lastly, a slightly different outlook on hyper bubble play.... Having played these for a little while now, I think there are spots particularly 3 handed, that as far as I can calculate, EV is the same whether you fold or call. In these cases, would you agree that a call is better purely because the tournament will end quicker and thus you can play more in the long run?

Thanks

I tried to get them to run all week obviously. I was told that the actual Super Tuesday isn't even launched until Friday so they can't run sats to it before that unless they change the launch date. The person I talk to is BryanS here on 2p2, I think he's the tournament director, you're more than welcome to try pm'ing him and seeing what he'll do. I'm like 99% sure he's sick of hearing from me by now.

Yeah obviously I'm enjoying it otherwise I wouldn't be doing it.

I used PokerTracker before that and I'm sure it's improved my roi as I like to run lots of queries to see what kind of hands people show up with in certain spots, and it's pretty much impossible to do this without one of those programs. As for quantifying how much exactly it has improved my roi, I really don't know.

I don't really know what a good sample is but I know it would have to be pretty big. If you look at my graph just for this year on sharkscope, you can see that I was running at about 5% for my first 12k games or so, then the next 10k games I was around -2%. So I don't know the answer but for sure 10k games isn't nearly enough to determine much of anything.

Ya if the EV is exactly the same you're probably better off calling I suppose. I really don't know how u are able to determine your EV that precisely while playing though. I still do some educated guessing in a lot of spots. Also for me it's pretty rare that I'm not playing every game that's going anyway, so having an extra table isn't going to make much difference as long as I'm below 25 tables or so. The exception is obviously on Sundays.

Jorj,

have you ever caught/reported 2 players trying to double team hypers vs u? Also, have u been refunded a significant amount of money from pokerstars due to colluders?

Hi Mr. Lind!

Have read all pages now, took some hours tho but intresting reading!

What do u think of poker_in_pb's strategy in hypers, forcing the blinds as high as possible?

What do u think about my hyper game?

I like ur attitude and all that, I'll hey to u at some live tourney soon. GL

// Displeased

I've gotten maybe 5 refunds in the last year or so playing hypers.

It's pretty frustrating though because there are people who I reported about 2 weeks ago who are still playing who are definitely colluding. I don't want to say any more than that for now. (I probably shouldn't even say this much.)

Ask me again in a couple weeks maybe.

pb's strategy is really annoying and I'm not sure if it's even a strategy, I think he's just really slow. He's been like that for at least 3 years in every game he plays. So frustrating to play with him even when 20+ tabling, I can only imagine how annoying it is for recreational players who play 1 or 2 tables.

I already said I wouldn't discuss people's games, it just puts me in an awkward spot, sorry.

Ya def say hi, always nice to meet new people.