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Old Yesterday, 12:24 PM   #1
racdbn
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 26
Statistically significant evidence for superusing on Vbet.

Hello! My name is Vladimir Zolotov. You can see me sometimes on Stars playing 1/2-5/10 HUNL Zoom pools as KidLockerJ7. On Vbet I played as TwerkTogether. Once again mostly HUNL 2/4 and 5/10.

In this post I want to present the evidence of superusing on Vbet. The main part is a statistically significant evidence that the suspect has unrealistically high TRUE winrate vs regs in HUNL. (By the true winrate I mean the winrate he would show vs regs if he would play them for 100000000 hands.) But there are others: some suspicious hands. And also that every 5/10 reg refused to play or quitted this guy (who plays like a fish).

The story: on 5th September I was playing against SurenMelkonyan who was beating the **** out of me. And a 5/10 reg sat me on other table saying that that I'm an idiot, Suren sees my cards. And that I must leave. I was shocked and did not believe. But I left. Nobody was interested in my whale so he left too.

In the next days this new guy popped up called LuckyLuciano777. This is the guy I have my evidence on. I don't played much with him only one very random ring 10/20 sesh. But I saw him on HU tables with big stacks. I started to rail his games against a 5/10 reg called HumptyDumpy. And Lucky was doing very well. So I was trying to understand if Lucky is superusing. And at some point I started to record.

Sadly I only got a part of the last day and then Humpty quitted. The next day I found Lucky playing 1/2 vs local reg gray1110 so I recorded that. The most hands come from here. And I also have a tiny video of Lucky vs 5/10 reg Armine18. Where the last quits pretty fast. That's all the footage I got of Lucky vs regs.
But I also have a video where he plays 22bb fish and wins after a long hustle and also plays this other superser suspect SurenMelkonyan and loses a stack. I can post this last thing if you want too.

Here are the Vids. They all have timestamps for HU hands in the comments and a summary of results in the description. ( If you see that I missed a rebuy from lucky, showdown, pot > 50bb please let me know. I will fix it.)

Part 1 (with gray 1110)
https://youtu.be/ZgLPDNh7i8c

Part 2 (with HumptyDumpty and tiny bit of "Doug Polk")
https://youtu.be/VhjDXbUuLG0

Part 3 (short one with Armine18)
https://youtu.be/G4mX8JPyF90

Here are the winnings table. I only look on HUNL hands.


The Statistical argument.
It is not possible to have a TRUE postrake winrate greater than 25bb/100 vs regs w/o superusing in HUNL. (This is around 34bb/100 pre rake in the environment observed) This statement is an additional assumption. I just assume that's from my expirience so it can be debated. I personally never heard about anybody having more than 20bb/100 even vs a mix of regs and fish like in Stars zoom pools.

How often a player having (less than) 25bb/100 winrate will win the same or more then Lucky on the same sample? We get the answer by using the calculator https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/


Since the result is < 5% it means that there is a statistically significant evidence that Lucky's true winrate vs regs is greater than 25bb/100.
For this argument to be correct it's critical that I don't hand pick hands / sessions for the sample. And I do not. That's litterally all HUNL hands vs regs I have on Lucky. And I don't creep on too many people. I was only filming Lucky, Suren (got a super small sample) and one more guy on other site (got less than 100hands).

The probability of running above certain winrate depends not only on winrate and sample size but also on standard defviation. Selection of STD is another thing in my argument which is not an exact science. I used STD = 155bb/100 which is what I have on my sample vs spicy regs with effective stack < 200bb filter on. My overall STD = 127bb/100 (effective stack < 200bb is on). This table summarize the probabilities of running as hot as Lucky under different assumptions.



Suspicious hands. They are played bad in an obvious way but happened to be good against specific opponents holdings.

JJh on AhTh4: https://youtu.be/ZgLPDNh7i8c?t=1748

Lucky 3x 3bets pre.

Pot cbets JJh on AhTh4 in 3bet pot. This loses EV cos around half of calls either are Ax+ and have him drawing to 2outs or will bluff him of OTR.



He hits J OTT. And goes xx. OTR Lucky pot/calls on river T where gray hits trips.


K6o pot 4betting pre vs 45ss https://youtu.be/ZgLPDNh7i8c?t=5322




IDK what to say 4betting K6o loses bunch of EV.


Sizes.Or to be precize the size. Lucky uses pot. He pot opens, pot 3bets, pot 4bets, pot cbets flop, etc. I was not paying close attention to see if he actually has any other sizes. But he certanly uses pot waaaaay to often in inappropriate situations. This does not suggest superuser directly. But this and his -ev plays above say that if he's not cheating then he is really baaad. But then his true winrate vs regs is negative (at least post rake). And then the chances of having such a great run are even less as you can see from the table above.

Regs voting by their wallets.
At the time of events there were 5 regs were regularily sitting 5/10 HUs: Armine18, HumptyDumpty, "Doug Polk", "f0rheyley" and me. Armine18 quits pretty quick in the part3, Humpty quits in part2, "Doug Polk" also plays couple hands at the end of part 2, and quits, "f0rheyley" is in the same crew with "Doug" and wasn't playing and I also was running for my life. Regs playing lower also were not that interested. After several days from Lucky's arrival 2/4+ lobby was just going empty every time he started sitting people.
That being said I told Armine18 that Lucky sees his cards. And I told Humpty that Suren sees his cards. So those were not completely independent decisions.

Request for Vbet.
So this is it. This is all evidence I have. I think that if after this Vbet will not provide hand histories vs suspected accounts they are 100% scam.

Here is my request and I ask everybody who played HUNL on 1/2+ to post similar requests so we can have nice and solid sample to look on.

My nick on Vbet is TwerkTogether.

I request Vbet to post publicly in this thread all hands I played against: SurenMelkonyan, LuckyLuciano777, Brodro, Mafbetteampro, Poker837474, pogheunem.

Here is my previous request on email and their reply.


Last edited by racdbn; Yesterday at 12:32 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 12:25 PM   #2
racdbn
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 26
Re: Statistically significant evidence for superusing on Vbet.

I reserve this spot to post links to other people requests if they will happen.
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Old Yesterday, 03:05 PM   #3
ejames209
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Join Date: May 2016
Location: 6bet me's no. 1 fan's no. 1 fan
Posts: 1,193
Re: Statistically significant evidence for superusing on Vbet.

Strange that a superuser would play against another superuser (if true).
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Old Yesterday, 04:42 PM   #4
racdbn
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 26
Re: Statistically significant evidence for superusing on Vbet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ejames209 View Post
Strange that a superuser would play against another superuser (if true).
So this was a big hand and they only played 2 hands after. So maybe that's the reason.






Maybe he thought he needs to show that he's capable of getting stacked or that when he bets big a lot he's just punting like fish. But why to get stacked by actual other player when you can get staked by your other acc?!

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