having a hard time figuring out what this graph means. my guess is it shows i suck at limit poker. all of these hands are limit poker 1/2 and 2/4. i know i ran extremely bad from 8500 hands on. couldnt win a showdown.

is there anything else to extrapolate from this besides the fact that i suck at limit poker?

that is true, but if it was skewed wouldnt that slowly turn you into a worse poker player? when a legit deck of cards is used, wouldnt you be at a disadvantage?

edit: i guess if you completely ignore results and just concentrate on solid decision making, then it wouldnt affect your game, long term.

How does the oil spill translate into the U.S not punishing fraud? I don't know a ton about the spill, but Exxon was clearly negligent regarding the transportation, cleanup and environmental concerns at the time and thus ordered to pay punitive damages. Our judicial process in the U.S allows for appeals, which Exxon has done several times feeling the judgements were too harsh.

Where is the fraud?

In June, the supreme court ordered Exxon to pay $250 million for damages, you can bet every dollar that you can muster that this will be paid.

Maybe you missed all the big oil execs testifying in front of congress this year? Our country does not stand for fraud and people will be punished if found guilty, look no further than Enron.

Kenneth Lay had connections to the Bush's, you think that helped him out? He would've been sentenced to 20+ years in prison for FRAUD.

Of course the U.S is going to support Exxon and other oil company's, do you think we should rely on the Middle East forthe rest of our lives?

NLL,
I think you want to look at the next tab - all in luck and look at just the net run line - but over your sample what are you expecting to see?

I have never thought that the argument of online poker being rigged was ever that complex. As a previous post indicated, if your winning why care if its rigged. I agree. I believe that I have always thought, since the beginning, that online poker was a bit shady. However, I knew that I was never going to get rich from it anyway. I dont make my living from it so if I win a little here and there then its cool.

I certainly dont buy into the theory that everyone who complains about it being rigged needs to "work on their game". There are just too many people asking questions for that to be the case. Certainly there are plenty of crappy players who refuse to examine their own game and are quick to blame their losses on shady website tactics, however, not everyone who is talking about it here sucks at poker. It is simply a question that exists in the dark recesses of our minds. Some of us question it and then, maybe, accept it....and then some of us never say a word about it for fear of being berated by players who say they are better and that we need to work on our leaks.

The concept that online poker is a big evil corporation is, sadly, something that I believe has merit. In this day and age, corporations tend to be big and evil and dishonest. What do these big corporations and CEO`s with more money than they could ever spend actually want? More money. Plain and simple. I am not buying the notion that they would never jeopardize their already enormous profits with an unfair game. If they could somehow manipulate the RNG just a fraction of a percent......to the point that it would be practically undetectable...do I think they would do it? Absolutely.

see! i run horrible! lol

what does the first graph that i posted mean? does it mean if slansky would have played my cards he would have made ~$1500 more than i did? lol, as you can see im having a hard time understanding this program. Is there anything I can take from the first graph that will help me improve my game?

Online poker rooms (stars included) shuffles the deck preflop, then on the flop, turn, and river.
My understanding of this is so even if someone were to hack into the shuffle, they could never know what card is going to come because it is yet to be determined.
I have concerns about this method of shuffle.
A site can have a perfectly working certified RNG, and still be manipulating outcomes.
Lets say that the hand starts and all the players at the table receive the hole cards in the order the RNG shuffled the cards. You can take a 200k hand sample, and sure enough, everybody is going to dealt each hand about the % of the time the math says they should. See it aint rigged.
The action is completed and the Rng shuffles the cards. The software puts out the flop in the order of the new shuffle by the RNG. See, it aint rigged, you flop a set and two pair and a flush draw as often as the math says you should.
On the turn, the RNG shuffles the deck, and then the software tells the RNG to shuffle the deck again. The Rng knows nothing but to shuffle the deck when the software tells it to. That software hasn't been audited like the RNG has.
This is just a theory, and I'm not calling stars cheats. I have spent a little time thinking about it though because I've seen the ugliest things.
I'm only posting this because if the math guys really decide to look at this, they need to concentrate on the turn and river.

Really, accounts do get hacked sometimes, but my understanding is that its because the hacker gets a hold of the players password somehow. Why don't they just shuffle the deck once? Is the dealing program EZ or possible to hack?

I was thinking of this theory a couple of months ago. I was in total doomswitch mode at the time. Was playing all MTT's, getting it in really good (80-90+%) and runner runner perfect or 2 outed constantly. Anyway, I shoved JJ into AA, flop and turn no help, then there was a pause before the river came, probably a second or two, but it was just long enough for my mind to say "I'm gonna hit it"... river J.
It was a weird feeling that I have not forgotten because I don't think I got lucky.

It's been said many times on here that Pokerstars only shuffles preflop and not post flop.

the shuffle mode on stars is different from most sites and they only shuffle once and the flop turn and river are set. as far as your theory for other sites, i am pretty sure the people who analyze the randomness of cards, look at hole cards dealt as well as every street.

as far as hacking into a poker site, specifically their RNG. this would be very very difficult, to do it without being noticed would be even harder, nearly impossible is my guess. i know nothing about hacking, but I would guess this type of hacking has to be near the top in level of difficulty.

the pause you experienced was computer or internet lag on your end.

PokerEV doesn't work for limit poker

I am not debating whether this industry has potential "shady" issues. Frankly all businesses have that potential, but as a general rule a large company (some publicly owned as well) do not make it a specific goal to be shady without good reason, and "rigging" in the ways people suggest just lacks that common sense test for any good business.

Rigging as presented (often based on short term observation) requires that

- Those involved all keep it a secret
- It never gets caught despite the availability of all the hand history data
- It makes substantial money for the risk involved

Most "riggers" find patterns to show how the site is rigged against them specifically as if they somehow merit all of the attention. Fact is no one does, and I cannot think of a reason why and how they would create this magical RnG that differentiates between people.

I know when I see horrid play in tournaments or sit and gos that wins often I will see someone complain about how "bad people always win." Then I check that bad players sharkscope or poker ranking and see a nice long term downward graph that I would be afraid to ski on even as an expert :P.

Really bad cash game players tend to have long term losing stats as well.

Still, that person who got bad beat will be convinced that the site is rigged against him in favor of the bad player.



The availability of hand histories and database programs like poker tracker are generally the cure to these beliefs once long term play is saved and analyzed. Pretty much all of the true passionate "riggers" never have this as a resource. Many even start with "I don't have PT but I know for a fact that..."



One can believe corporations are big Orwellian evil machines, that's fine, and the fact they are not really understood makes them seem more that way then they really are.

Reality is that they are more like governments that usually do not have the scheming creativity that small companies/individuals have, so these massive conspiracy theories about how they would pull it off fail the common sense test. Often times they will make or lose money as a result of sloppiness as opposed to grand master evil schemes to rip off their customers.

Many keep bringing up the UB/AP scenario, but again that was not a case of the corporation creating a master plan to rob it's customers. It was a couple of people inside the company who used a badly designed system to steal from people, much like any internal fraud/embezzlement that takes place in companies of all kinds.

My point in this regard was that 99% of the folks who come here to "ask" if online poker is rigged have no evidence or even an inclination to get it. Like everything else in their life, they expect it to be handed to them instead of doing the work to collect it themselves.

I contend that if they were willing to put the same work that would be required to gather the data (and analyze it) into learning to play properly they wouldn't be blaming the sites for their losses; they'd be posting threads about how bad the cashouts are.

My bad if Stars only shuffles the deck 1 time per hand. I commend them if this is the case. Please trust me, I don't "know" anything and I want there to be clean games on the net.
I also think that the work that people on this forum are putting into this is very important from a timing stand point. 60 minutes is going to be doing the UB / AB segment that very well may turn into a big online poker hit peace. I think that 2p2 will be mentioned several times. I bet there is a ton of new traffic to the site after the show.
If there is data that proves that the dealing of cards is random and clean,
it could turn this into a big positive for the online world.

Thats another great point.

Also something else to think about is that online poker is not a long term business goal for the CEO's of these companies. It is something that is going to make them obsene profits short term and they will try and maximize these profits, even with a little risk to reputation. Its not like they are running a company like UPS or Pepsi, where these business will be around for as long as humanity is alive. Online poker is an uncertain field in which they do not know how long they can run these sites and how long they can make money from this business. So they will not sacrifice bigger profits for integrity.

+1

How would they rig it? I mean from a practical standpoint? How would they know who the good players are?

is this certain? if so, very interesting. i don't feel like shuffling 4 times per hand is kosher.

perhaps someone with more current knowledge can confirm, but i know that party poker admitted that they compiled pt-like profiles of their players. maybe not the best example, lol.

"Anyway, I shoved JJ into AA, flop and turn no help, then there was a pause before the river came, probably a second or two, but it was just long enough for my mind to say "I'm gonna hit it"... river J.
It was a weird feeling that I have not forgotten because I don't think I got lucky"




Sigh.This thread started out as a good discussion but basically its just another rigged thread without one person posting anything even coming close to proof.

are you a part of the affiliate farm that mason denounces in the last pokercast? well, he denounced, then undenounced because he is now part of the farm.

very topical pokercast to this subject if anyone has not listened. also, can't get enough of RayZee!!


----------> http://pokercast.twoplustwo.com/index_plus.php

I really hope you don't mean that to be an argument that online poker must be rigged - not sure if you do or not.

There's not even close to enough people asking questions to draw any conclusions about anything. 2+2ers are a small percentage of poker players, 2+2ers questioning the software are a small percentage of 2+2ers, and 2+2ers starting rigged threads are a small percentage of those who just have questions. I'm not saying this proves anything is not rigged, but it certainly doesn't prove it is.

Yeah, I'm sorry to say I'm not shocked that thread quality is rapidly decreasing. There's still a few good posts coming in, but more and more noise.

Any chance those of you who want to post the "I had AA once, and then..." posts could find a rigged poker thread for those? We're really trying for a serious thread here for once.

5th, since I'm replying to your post anyway, I have an OT question for you. Why do you never put a space after a punctuation mark? Just curious, I've always found it odd.

Mehhh, im just sloppy i guess. Also, i need to use the quote feature more. I tried both this time.

Are 2+2 posters the sole authority on poker, whether it be online or not? You know as well as I do that there are a multitude of forums across the internet and every one of them have similar threads about the possible dubious practices involving online poker. There are plenty of people asking the same questions and all I am saying is that they dont all suck at poker.
Anyhoo.....my particular take on the subject was not so much the possibility of it being rigged as it was a look into a possible theory of WHY they might want to rig it.



"Thread quality"......lol, thats rich. Since the inception of this thread and a multitude of others, I dont think the "thread quality" will ever be up to your standards. People just discussing is whats its all about, right? You and many others here take the position that until we come with mountains of empirical evidence that rivals the 9/11 Commission Report, the rest of us just remain galactically stupid.

thanks for your valuable input.

I'm not sure why the thread quality comment is so rich...have you not seen some of the rigged threads we've had in the past? Would you not agree that there have been some incredibly miserable ones? Those threads help no one, neither the "rigged" crowd nor the sceptics.

Yes, discussing is what it's about, no we don't need mountains of evidence, and I don't recall calling anyone stupid. At the same time, we really don't need another thread where we rehash all the same arguments about whether sites could be rigged, whether it is worthwhile, how someone took 3 bad beats so it must be rigged, etc, etc. I wasn't singling you out, just agreeing with 5th as to the general direction this thread seems to be starting to take.

Discussion is great, and I think it should continue, but don't you agree it would be nice if we made some sort of move toward a resolution of some of the accusations with at least a little bit of evidence?

Heh, I've always been curious since you did it so consistently I wondered if there was something further behind it. No worries, a good post isn't turned bad solely by spacing issues, and the no space thing is sort of like a calling card now. Although I must say this last post of yours looked much nicer.

Bobo,

isn't this thread waiting for PokerEV Phil to incorporate the effect of cards likely folded preflop into the PokerEV software, and until then nothing much is going to happen but static?

Fair enough Bobo. I apologize if I started to flame and didnt mean to insinuate that you called anyone stupid. Yes, there have been many hum-dinger threads on this and its unfortunate that the good arguments get caught up in the ridiculous arguments. I think that some of us have questions, but shudder to think at the monumental task of gathering the necessary data to make a case and just feel helpless against the possibility of it being unfair. Again I apologize.