If everything's calculated in EV then if I offered you +EV odds to flip $100M dollars for a EV of $500k would you do it?


Everyone has their own risk tolerance and therefore value returns based on risk taken. This is also why the more volatile stock market pays out a much higher return than the "riskless" treasury bond. In finance, this is called a risk premium.

InsuredPlay is basically taking on your risk in exchange for a set price. Whether it is worth the price is up to you personally to decide, depending on your risk tolerance. Please do not bash them for it.

Which is why they offer it at the casinos in some games. They are not doing it to be sociable or out of the kindness of their heart.

No. The only place where an advertiser can do anything with posts is in a sponsored forum, but if someone feels an issue in a sponsored forum is being deleted rather than being addressed, they can always post about it in another forum like this one.

Of course they are welcome to report posts like anyone else, and mods will then handle them as they see fit. Generally speaking, we try not to delete criticism of sites, whether they advertise or not, as long as the complaints are not obviously false or overly abusive. I know a couple of posts have been deleted from this thread by moderators; it appears they were fairly low content/trollish. This is one I just deleted:

It actually wasn't reported by anyone, but I don't think that's the kind of thing we need in this thread. Stuff like that is somewhat subjective; more is let go in some threads and forums than others, but it didn't seem to me like something that added to the conversation in any kind of constructive way.

FWIW, there have been a total of 3 posts deleted from this thread by mods, including the one I quoted above.

That link is just another sales page.

If your target is market are winning players, or at least "semi serious" players, you can't just expect to win them over with a vague sales pages and some phony testimonials.

So far in this thread there is people who is actually EDUCATING others on why your service is not worth the cost. My take is that you will have to put some effort in doing the same in the opposite direction, otherwise you'll lose this battle very soon.

No money in insurance, everybody's downswinging.

FYP.

um, no..

um yes.

if you're upswingning insurance takes all money above EV you were making. So no money in insurance when everybody is upswinging.

There's no money being in insurance if all you do is pay out because everyone is downswinging is what I meant.. I don't think this site takes money that you run above EV either..

Then you don't understand how insurance works.

they still take the fee, but they don't take the money you win...

Insurance as in insuring people is what I meant, not as in taking insurance

ty for bringing your aids itt guys

Of course they do. If you run $10k above EV for the year, then you will have had to pay them that $10k on top of the $20k+ you give them in fees! (SNE volume.) But don't worry, you may be over $30k out of pocket, but doesn't it feel good to not to have to worry about variance!

(In the KK example in the OP, you pay IP $20. So if you win the pot you are $20 above EV but you have had to pay out that $20 along with the fee of between $0.50 and $2.98)

This.

There is still a lot of misinformation about the topic of insurance. I don't really believe these guys want to prey in msinformation, but I already explained that they need to do a whole lot of "evangelization" for this stuff to have a positive impact in the community.

wow, that is ridiculous.. if your AA holds against KK in 100NL you have to ship 20$ to the site, on top of the fee??

Yes, mr fast meme.

I've read a blog entry 'How much variance comes from AI situations?' and my hair stood on end. Dear InsuredPlay owners, either you're deliberately hiding your knowledge of math, or you urgently need to learn the definition of variance (wiki) - the variance is equal to the mean of the square minus the square of the mean - and hire a mathematician, preferably a qualified risk manager. It's sad that Quad, a respected blogger, gave a wrong calculation too.

Also, your bubble insurance has a whopping collusion breach. If one of a gang of six players insures a series of 6-max SnGs but the other don't and flip stacks between each other to ensure that the first player finishes exactly in the third place all the time, and then the winnings are divided evenly, it's clear that IP loses lots of money (the team gets 5/6~0.83 BI from IP every time, out of which only 3/5=0.6 BI is spent on rake, in fact much less due to rakeback). The poker room will most likely deem it chip dumping and close the accounts, so I can't do this trick and am honestly sharing it with you, but think twice whether you should insure tourneys at all, especially if you don't have a security team.

Even an honest player can theoretically gain advantage because bubble insurance creates a new, flatter, prize structure for him and he can apply a (tighter) unexploitable strategy tailored to the new structure, while his opponents unaware of IP will use strategies that are close to unexploitable in terms of the original uninsured structure, but exploitable in terms of the new insured structure. All the players will win because they'll de facto play different tourneys, hence only IP will lose.

Such loopholes of course exist in almost any insurance policies but I want to stress that you can't do without checking reliability of signups thoroughly like poker backers and usual insurance companies do.

they have this for PLO too? would feel alot better about running 100k under ev in a month and paying the fee

Oh btw, we've been discussing only NLHE fees so far, could anyone share data on the size of PLO fees (PLO is insured too)? I guess they should be closer to 1 bb/100 because pre-river AI pots happen more often and involve more players on average, preflop stackoffs with AA** vs a couple of random hands are common. It's balanced by the fact that at PLO 30-40% of variance, if not 50-60%, is in pre-river AI (alas I don't have my own figures at hand), so the bb/100 winrate threshold where IP becomes viable is (I guess) a bit bigger than at NLHE but single-digit as well.

its probably close to 1bb/100 yeah

Funniest thing I've read all day.

I thought the bubble insurance was only for selected MTT's?

We only offer bubble insurance for MTTs. And not every MTT.

Some regular MTTs attract very few players. We pay attention to make sure we only offer bubble insurance to tournaments that will reach a certain number of entries.

I would really appreciate a correction. We're open to feedback.

Mixing the information on that article (the pot sizes of insured hands and the frequency of insured hands) with your assessment of reduction in variance could create a more valid analysis.

We guarantee you'll win your equity every time the hand goes all-in before the river. Regardless of the result of the hand, you win your equity minus the fee.

So even if AA ties against KK, AA gets $30 from insurance minus the fee.