Quote:
Originally Posted by MeleaB
Approx 1.35bb/100 for the casual player- $55 for a quick 1,000 hand session!
For a higher volume player it comes down to 0.225 bb/100 which is still very, very expensive: A 100NL break-even FR grinder playing enough hands to earn $4k profit (rakeback) a month would have to pay approx $500 for the service!
It's not hard to see that it wouldn't take long for the fees to surpass any possible EV downswing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emre Kenci
On average, an insured hand is about 150 big blinds. So insurance will cost 0.25/100 x 150 = 0.375 big blinds per insured hand.
Assuming 1 out of 100 hands will be insured -that is the average on our site atm.
You would pay 0.375bb per 100 hands. So for a NL100 player to pay $500 in fees per month, he has to play 500/0.375 = 1333 insured hands or 133.000 hands per month. 133K hands per month is a lot.
Assuming the player does put in that much volume, he would insure almost $200K worth of pots for $500. Which we believe is a fair price for the service.
WOW! Then it is even worse than I had calculated!
A break-even 100NL FR grinder can easily play 250k hands a month. In order to earn 50k VPPs each month, he would need to play approx 250k hands (@0.2VPP/hand.) (I play in excess of 250k hands/month for the record.)
Playing, say, 266k hands a month would yield approx $5k in profit (rakeback.) If he was foolish to use this service of yours, he would have to pay $1,000 EVERY MONTH!! That is nothing short of a complete rip-off!
Such a player would typically experience swings of approx twice that in a single month (i.e. he would usually run somewhere between $2k over and $2k under EV) and this is relatively minor compared with the cost of the service. By the end of the year, he would have paid $12,000 in insurance fees- and this would induce a far stronger tilt than any tilt he's likely to experience due to EV downswings.
You are missing the point when you say
"So for a NL100 player to pay $500 in fees per month, he has to play... ...133K hands per month [which] is a lot." Yes, it's a lot BUT for people playing less volume, obviously their fees would be less, but they would be proportionally higher and even more of a joke.
No competent, poker player would ever choose to use this service. Unfortunately there are many number-illiterate players out there (fish) who may be gullible enough to be drawn in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimStone
i dont understand all teh bitching here. they saw a niche and created this product and so far i see nothing shady.
obv everybody has to decide for himself if he wants to pay some money to take a decent amount of variance out of teh game. geez some guys even run that bad that tis service is most likely +EV for them.
I
TimStone, you know that, and I agree that it's a great idea on paper, but the cost just makes it a bad option for players.
You play approx 100k hands a month of NL200-1000, at an average buy-in of "NL300" I would guess. (Rough numbers.) Would you be happy to pay $1,125 per month ($13,500 of your yearly salary) to know your variance will be reduced?
Last edited by Mike Haven; 11-14-2012 at 08:33 PM.
Reason: 2 posts merged