Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
Pretty much. The way I look at it though, there are probably a number of lurkers here who believe similar things, but don't post about it. Hopefully a few of them are more reasonable and are swayed by reasonable arguments.
Yeah, you caught me BF, been lurking here for months since my last post, looking for a reasonable argument to be swayed by, following your advice (or was it Micro Bob's) to post less and read more (good advice though, whomever the source).
Trouble is, the same old arguments seem to always be hauled out in rebuttal: "We all have millions of hands of stats on file that show everything to be within statistical norms" or, my favorite: "go find your tin-foil hat, little girl".
Sorry, still unswayed from my original point, that being: If the poker sites RNGs were truly random, you would not all have "stats within the statistical norm" neither in the short, medium or long term. Though over time MOST players results and card distributions would cluster within a statistically significant % of the Mean Line on a graph, a small but also statistically significant number would fall in a steadily diminishing number above and below the Mean Line on the graph forming the distinctive shape of an Inverted Bell Curve.
In the aforementioned thread "Donkey on fire" of 02/20/08, Josem was kind enough to share a highly informative graph of player results from his research on the UB cheating scandal. While he claimed that it showed a Bell-shaped pattern that would have clinched the argument for the "cards are random" side, I myself discerned a Bell-shape only on the negative side of the Mean Line with an unfortunate few suffering losses up to 200-300BB per hour with the degree of losses corralating predictabley with %VPIP. Strangely however on the positive side of the Mean Line, rather than a corresponding Bell shape the results fell roughly along a straight line at the 100BB per hour line irrespective of %VPIP, seeming to indicate a possible non-random limit on winning "rushes" such as that suggested by the much-maligned OP.
I eagerly await a reasonable argument that will sway me from my heretical
position. Flame away!