Deviation is to standard as for ranged by key in median variance.

QED?

Not quite--for all four to match, first one is free. It's more like 4 million to one for the next four hands to match (assuming each one is equally likely)

You're correct (4.8 million). I was too hasty on that last post, watching TV.

Dear Obviously Bogus,

I parked this because I am going to put some stupid funny **** connected to online poker that will fit in nicely with this thread.

Stay tuned, but I will be out of town on other business for three weeks (Henderson Nevada! Hooray!) so nothing is going to happen with that until I get back.

Sincerely,

DonkoTheClown
fvvvvvvvvt (excuse me)
Counselor to a crazed version of me in the mirror
Candy Corn Farmer
www.donkotheclown.com
donko@clownbarf.com
800-Eat-Corn

Dearest Monty,

Maybe you are the Donko gimmick and have been leading us all down the road 100 mph with our seatbelts buckled securely around our foreheads. Once that brick wall pops up, this thread will blow up like an overstuffed bag of popcorn and cat guts.

Sincerely,

DonkoTheClown
Vice President of The Monty Montero Monteroy Fan Club
RNG Personality Specialist
Inventor of "LOL"
Special Investigator For Shill Magazine
www.donkotheclown.com
donko@montyfanclub.com
800-Use-Soap

WTF
you are piece work
just admit it man
you only asking for proof because you know there is no software available.
this thread is kinda like the other thread on another forum.
only the topic is
" are we alone?"
all the monteroy and wiki there is asking for proof of alien life.
of course, all evidence present is been call.
1. fake
2. selected/image memory
3. sample size

Which makes it much more possible that he actually saw it, and you might have to pay up. You should have gone after the flop one instead.

Of course, the fact that he claims to have seen 4 identical flops means it's probably safe to say his memory is foggy on both. Or he made it up.

What are you talking about? Most rigging claims would be pretty easy to prove if true; what particular theory are you having such a hard time thinking would be provable?

And you asked what software could take a screen shot, and got a pretty straightforward answer.

You asked for the name of some software to take a screenshot and I told you how to do it without spending a penny.

Now you're griping?

There's just no pleasing some people even when trying to be helpful.


There's plenty of software available.

Yes, people want credible evidence.

"I was taken up to a flying saucer and analy probed" does not represent credible evidence. It might represent wishful thinking on the part of the presenter - who knows?

Similarly "My aces never hold up" is not credible evidence. It's a mixture of selective memory, variance and lies.

are those house players who are teaming up?

i was asking for the name of the software to check the data of all my HHs.
i got the name of software that take screenshot.
i think it's my english. so misunderstanding there.
you say plenty available, please name few.
just to note. we already know pt3 and hem cannot.
if you ever been taken up to flying saucer, how the hell are you gonna have any proof??
if a girl walk on the street. and some guy just squeeze her boobies.
with no witness, and just her words vs some guy.
since she cannot give you any evidence.
are you going to say to her it's selective memory, variance and lies!

Well, 4.8 million dealt to 4 tables is 19 million hands played, on average, to see this once. I feel very safe. Bet's still good. The flop claim was so outrageous nobody took that seriously.

I also took the time to do the math properly, and we don't know if the claim included counting AK as matching KA, but if we assume it did, then the chance is even better for him, about 500K to 1, or only 2 million hands played on average, to see a 4-table match once.

For the flops, disregarding order and suits, it's 23.4 million to 1, or nearly 94 million hands played, on average, to see it happen once.

We do?

Which means a few 2+2ers have probably seen it. But again, given his flop claim, there's a very good chance you're safe.

Bobo is this you?
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...71&postcount=2

Looks like it ...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...1&postcount=20

Stop it people! You are ruining my image of Bobo as a cool blooded cowboy from the mid-west. It's not funny!

Bobo am de man.

Nice ninja avatar edit Bobo ...

.

Please put back the Man with No Name avatar. Sorry I started this.

I propose that this thread be turned into an avatar debate. Would make for a better one imo

P.S. nice quick reaction Bobo )

Yeah, sadly, it is.

Sorry.

Heh, I believe I acquired Barney from Mat for this:

Don't worry, I'll change it back soon.

this poll can't be correct? 37% of ppl think online poker is rigged?

FYP, and yes.

Mr/s the nextlevel1:

fyp

use guise bottle de mine and neva seize to a maise mi...for all intensive porpoises de cites r default and important to defeet de riggedness...de only defence is arond de house...except it morans...get 1/2 a bran. may be i'm ovary acting but i'm buy sexual and omnipotent.

bye,bi,

Gary The Greatest (sucker) Of ALLLLLL Time


ps why am i always quoting this level guy?

pps 62% r diluted! gg

FYP (extra cut).

I'm pretty sure the odds are 4.8 million to 1 if and only if AK == KA. Those hands are equivalent when you're talking about the 169 starting hands, and 169^3 ~= 4.8 million. If we consider AK to be different from KA, then the odds against him are much worse, so no matter what he meant by his phrasing, the best he can do is 4.8 million to 1.

So...if he comes back with proof that he's seen it umpteen times, not only will you be out $100, but we'll be certain that something is rotten wherever he's playing.

For the riggies out there, this is exactly the sort of thing that would constitute proof. I suspect what he really remembers is seeing, for example, 87o on two of his tables at the same time. His intuition is telling him that this is unlikely, but in fact it's very common, and you'll see it a lot if you multitable. Every great now and then you might even see it on 3 out of 4 tables if you grind a lot. But all 4? Nah.