Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
That example is not reasonable as it is almost 5 SD offset from the mean, and I think you just made it up.
Confidence interval is directly related to standard deviation. Card events are generally binomial, meaning they happen or they don't. If you do an all-in luck analysis every hand is either won or lost. And the outcome distribution over time is predictable, because we know what binomial (and normal) distributions look like. Given some sample size, we can calculate the likelihood of being some amount offset from the mean expectation. I'm not going to teach it to you here, but if you have a specific sample that you want to see the math for, put the question in the probability forum. Lots of people know how to do it.
I did just make that example up, you're right. I was just explaining the sort of thing I was trying to get at.
So, for example, pocket kings should beat pocket 2s, when all-in preflop, around 80% of the time. If I take a sample of 10 hands and the kings only win 70% of the time, that can be put down to variance, or whatever and is a reasonable outcome, but I was meaning, say I take a sample of 1000 hands and the kings still only win 70% of the time, is that still a reasonable outcome ? (Edited to clarify: I mean an example of 10 instances of K, K v 2, 2, all-in preflop and then an example of 1000 instances of K, K v 2, 2, all-in preflop.)
I remember, (vaguely), from studying statistics, there being a formula or table you can use to work this out, but can't really remember what it is.
This is no offence to you Spadebidder, but I'm fed up of being told, 'Post in this forum and I'll tell you,' or, 'You need to post this here.' It all seems a bit petty.
The moderators are perfectly capable of deciding what needs to be posted where and I think my question above was absolutely relevant to the topic we are discussing and necessary reading for myself and anyone else who may read any further posts, so as to understand them.
Only the other day, I posted here and was getting some good replies, when someone said, 'You should post in such and such a thread, to get a proper response,' which I did and then got no responses at all.
As I said, I'm not having a go, it's just surely that's the moderators job and to refuse to answer something until it's put in a forum of your choice seems petty to me.