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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,449 34.95%
No 5,524 55.98%
Undecided 895 9.07%
Voters: 9868. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-12-2009, 08:44 PM   #2076
topdave5
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

So 1 in 450 million...

We can shorten that slightly. Given on a single table there are 9 players
Lets make it 1 in 50 million then ... that's a big number
Like the number of minutes in 100 years

I haven't played that much online poker
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Old 04-12-2009, 08:48 PM   #2077
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

So sequences of 5 hands - guess they occur more frequently. In 10 hands there are 5x 5 hand sequences, so guess you can divide this number by 5. (arguably 6 but who cares)

One in 10 million. Say a one in twenty year event.

So it comes down to the chances of

Did I just observe a 1 in 20 year event? Or is something fishy going on.
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Old 04-12-2009, 08:53 PM   #2078
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Twenty years of solid poker table watching. Hmm.

My explanation...

Motivation : convince new players they are better at poker than they really are so they play more poker (and generate more revenue). Don't fix high stake / value tournaments where the experts play

Means : run a system that adjusts "luck". Starting hand, hitting cards on flop / turn / river. Creating action hands where everyone has something worth betting.

Opportunity : regulation in Costa Rica
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Old 04-12-2009, 08:56 PM   #2079
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
Did I just observe a 1 in 20 year event? Or is something fishy going on.
Obviously the more logical conclusion is that FTP is so blatant in their rigging of 50 FTP satellites that they gave the same person AA 4 out of 5 times, and not that you've witnessed something that has probably happened a couple hundred times on FTP and Pokerstars because they've dealt so many hands.
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Old 04-12-2009, 09:09 PM   #2080
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

I'd be more inclined to agree if it wasn't the first 5 hands of the tournament.

Say it's the 87 millionth tournament (as by id number) - average tournament has 25 players.

It's likely occurred 5 times then.

If you consider the 11.5 billion implied hands on Full Tilt (from hand id numbers), I guess you estimate of hundreds is reasonable

Programmers make mistakes - as do mathematicians. Just look at the credit crunch. I find it more likely someone just screwed up the "rigging" algorithm. It would be undergoing constant "refinement".
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Old 04-12-2009, 09:28 PM   #2081
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

What's the chances of someone like me spotting one of these hundred events and posting here? Is it not more likely that someone delusional photoshop-ped the evidence? (which I didn't, but is a possibility that should be considered). I guess my question is - how much evidence would you need to see before you accepted online poker was rigged in anyway? Implementation-wise it's trivial to do. It's just the reputational risk that would be a concern. But these things start off small. Probably they did it ever since they were small sites, and now they are big, some not-entirely-morally-upright manager is likely responsible for this dark secret cog.
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Old 04-12-2009, 09:31 PM   #2082
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

</speculation>
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Old 04-12-2009, 10:09 PM   #2083
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
I'd be more inclined to agree if it wasn't the first 5 hands of the tournament.
So they are rigging things to give a random player AA a lot at a point in the tournament where blinds are so small the odds of him winning much are slim compared to later when it would matter more.

Yeah, that makes sense...



Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
Say it's the 87 millionth tournament (as by id number) - average tournament has 25 players.

It's likely occurred 5 times then.

If you consider the 11.5 billion implied hands on Full Tilt (from hand id numbers), I guess you estimate of hundreds is reasonable
From this and your earlier posts all I can say is that you do math and statistics in a really, really creative manner. Hint, that aint ideal for math of this type.



Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
Programmers make mistakes - as do mathematicians. Just look at the credit crunch. I find it more likely someone just screwed up the "rigging" algorithm. It would be undergoing constant "refinement".
A much more likely scenario is a person with basically zero actual math skill saw something he thought was unusual, and decided to create a story based on the details to fit his beliefs.

Hint, if it happened later in the tournament you would have found similar rationalizations for it happening later then at the very start.

This is even ignoring the whole silliness of your beliefs at the way it would be rigged. Hint, if it actually was rigged for whatever reason, the odds are they would do it in a way that did not even make even the slowest of people go "Duh, rigged."


Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
What's the chances of someone like me spotting one of these hundred events and posting here? Is it not more likely that someone delusional photoshop-ped the evidence? (which I didn't, but is a possibility that should be considered). I guess my question is - how much evidence would you need to see before you accepted online poker was rigged in anyway? Implementation-wise it's trivial to do. It's just the reputational risk that would be a concern. But these things start off small. Probably they did it ever since they were small sites, and now they are big, some not-entirely-morally-upright manager is likely responsible for this dark secret cog.
Someone with an actual working knowledge of math and statistics, with an actual statistically significant sample size of data that could actually be verified would get considerable more respect then the "speculation" theories you do based on seeing something weird in your mind. You know, kind of like how the UB/AP super users were confirmed (which to save time, had nothing to do with the randomness of the deal itself).

All the best.
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Old 04-12-2009, 10:17 PM   #2084
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

So let's see...

Player got AA four times in five hands. Full Tilt had dealt 11.7 billion hands at the time this miracle occurred, going by the counter on the tables. Let's assume the overall average players per hand dealt is 6, which I know to be pretty close. So now we have 70.2 billion individual hands dealt. So how many sequences of five hands are dealt in 70.2 billion hands? Well, that's 70.2 billion less four, so still pretty much 70.2 billion (one begins on the first hand, one begins on the second hand, etc). So we have 70.2 billion opportunities for the event to occur. Give or take a little for people leaving/joining a table. (Edit: logically, I should have figured the number of sequences before multiplying by average players at the table, but of course it comes out the same in any order when multiplying factors together).

We know the probability is ~1/479million.

70.2 billion / 479 million is 146.

So we know this event is likely to have occurred 146 times on Full Tilt. Now, how many people saw it? Well, 146 times our average of 6 players at the table, or 876 people have probably seen this event on Full Tilt.

Out of that 876 people who have seen this event, what is the chance one of them will post it on 2+2 and call it a miracle? Well, we already know the chance of that is 100% since it has happened.

So we have a miracle that has happened around 146 times and been seen by about 876 people (on Full Tilt alone), and that is if the deal is totally random and honest. Just imagine how often we'd be hearing about it if it were rigged. It boggles the mind.

Incidentally, I recall watching a TV tournament where David Sklansky was dealt AA either five or six times in less than an hour, i.e probably less than 30 hands. Live game. He didn't think it was a miracle or anything, and he certainly didn't think it was rigged.

Last edited by spadebidder; 04-12-2009 at 10:40 PM.
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Old 04-13-2009, 06:24 AM   #2085
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
What's the chances of someone like me spotting one of these hundred events and posting here? Is it not more likely that someone delusional photoshop-ped the evidence? (which I didn't, but is a possibility that should be considered). I guess my question is - how much evidence would you need to see before you accepted online poker was rigged in anyway? Implementation-wise it's trivial to do. It's just the reputational risk that would be a concern. But these things start off small. Probably they did it ever since they were small sites, and now they are big, some not-entirely-morally-upright manager is likely responsible for this dark secret cog.
Some posters in this thread will never accept it. They are paid not to.
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Old 04-13-2009, 06:34 AM   #2086
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by topdave5 View Post
So what are the chances of getting AA in 4 out of 5 hands

P(AA) = 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221
P(4x AA) = 1/221 * 1/221 * 1/221 * 1/221 = 1/2,385,443,281
P(4x AA in 5 hands) = 5 * 220/221 * 1/2,385,443,281 = 1/479,257,241

So that's not a very likely event
That's pretty cool. Pretty sure I've never seen someone get AA so often in such a short span.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:14 PM   #2087
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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So what are the chances of getting AA in 4 out of 5 hands
what are the chances you provide the hand history numbers?
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:15 PM   #2088
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

I have never really thought that any of the big sites would be systematically cheating players. However we have seen that rouge employees could cheat, just like what happened at Absolute and UB. And if the players could figure out a way to cheat many of them would.

I am a winner online and live. I have been playing for over ten years and have a winning record at Paradise, Party, UB, Stars and Full Tilt. However recently I have been getting the worst beats at Full Tilt. It's not just the beats themselves, but also the way people have played their hands that leads me to believe that they somehow know what cards will be on the flop/turn/river before the flop.

I had the same funny feeling about 18 months ago when I was playing on UB. Although I was still an overall winner at UB I began to lose in a way that just did not feel right to me. I really felt that some players could see my hole cards. I decided to cash out my balance and went to play on another site. Sure enough a few months later the super user scandal breaks.

I am getting the same bad feeling at FT now, except it feels like some players know what cards will be on the board before the flop. Like I said it is not just the beats themselves, but the very suspicious way in which some people play their hands that makes me feel something is wrong.

Does anyone else feel that this is happening at FT? On occasion I have seen people selling programs that they claim will allow you to predict the coming cards. I had always dismissed these as likely scams, but now I am wondering. Has anyone tried one of these programs? Has anyone seen something like this work? The only other thing that would explain what I am seeing is if there was a way for the players to control what cards would be on the flop/turn/river. I saw that some sites claim to use player actions like mouse movements to help create entropy to seed the algorithm. Could players use a program to control these mouse movements ect. to influence what cards appear on the flop?

For now I think I will just play somewhere else to be safe. However I have been data mining quite a bit on FT. I am wondering if we amassed enough hand histories, could we find a way to have them analyzed to see if everything is random? I would really like to know what is happening here just for my own piece of mind. Like most players I just want a fair game.

Guy.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:20 PM   #2089
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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what are the chances you provide the hand history numbers?
One...hundred...percent?

Also, I think from now on I'm going to use this thread as a BBV thread. Mostly brags because that's how I roll.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:20 PM   #2090
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I had the same funny feeling about 18 months ago when I was playing on UB. Although I was still an overall winner at UB I began to lose in a way that just did not feel right to me. I really felt that some players could see my hole cards. I decided to cash out my balance and went to play on another site. Sure enough a few months later the super user scandal breaks.
But unless you actually played against one of the superuser accounts, you're just associating that feeling you had with being superused.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:34 PM   #2091
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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One...hundred...percent?
you think topdave will definitely provide HH #'s?

I mean, I guess someone request the HH from that tournament and see if those pics are legit, but I don't see any way to confirm them based on the screenshots.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:55 PM   #2092
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Re: a Royal Flush a day....

I am so happy they rig the whole thing:

PokerStars Game #26916240336: Tournament #154645215, $1.00+$0.20 Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/04/10 2:50:40 CET [2009/04/09 20:50:40 ET]
Table '154645215 3' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: momsjoe (1460 in chips)
Seat 4: carnation54 (1440 in chips)
Seat 5: Mathathon (1480 in chips)
Seat 6: JABIN12 (1340 in chips)
Seat 7: aarontilting (4620 in chips)
Seat 8: TANZYCAN (1660 in chips)
Seat 9: ksphoto (1500 in chips)
Mathathon: posts small blind 10
JABIN12: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mathathon [Ks 8s Qs 3s]
TANZYCAN said, "lol scotti"
aarontilting: folds
TANZYCAN: calls 20
ksphoto: folds
momsjoe: folds
carnation54: folds
Mathathon: calls 10
JABIN12: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ts Js 6c]
Mathathon: checks
JABIN12: checks
TANZYCAN: bets 60
Mathathon: calls 60
JABIN12: folds
*** TURN *** [Ts Js 6c] [As]
Mathathon: bets 100
TANZYCAN: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [Ts Js 6c As] [6h]
thurar is connected
Mathathon: bets 160
TANZYCAN: calls 160
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mathathon: shows [Ks 8s Qs 3s] (HI: a Royal Flush)
TANZYCAN: mucks hand
Mathathon collected 700 from pot
No low hand qualified

Hi/Lo No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2009/04/11 12:45:39 CET [2009/04/11 6:45:39 ET]
Table '155000526 2' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 6: ofil (14224 in chips)
Seat 7: Mathathon (12776 in chips)
ofil: posts the ante 150
Mathathon: posts the ante 150
Mathathon: posts small blind 1500
ofil: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mathathon [Ad 8h Jd Tc]
Mathathon: raises 9626 to 12626 and is all-in
ofil: calls 9626
*** FLOP *** [As Qd 6s]
*** TURN *** [As Qd 6s] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [As Qd 6s Td] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ofil: shows [7c 5c 6c 5d] (HI: a pair of Sixes)
Mathathon: shows [Ad 8h Jd Tc] (HI: a Royal Flush)
Mathathon collected 25552 from pot
No low hand qualified
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Old 04-13-2009, 03:30 PM   #2093
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
you think topdave will definitely provide HH #'s?

I mean, I guess someone request the HH from that tournament and see if those pics are legit, but I don't see any way to confirm them based on the screenshots.
The HH #s are in the top left of the Land Hand History window.
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Old 04-13-2009, 03:43 PM   #2094
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by guysmilie View Post
I have never really thought that any of the big sites would be systematically cheating players. However we have seen that rouge employees could cheat, just like what happened at Absolute and UB. And if the players could figure out a way to cheat many of them would.

I am a winner online and live. I have been playing for over ten years and have a winning record at Paradise, Party, UB, Stars and Full Tilt. However recently I have been getting the worst beats at Full Tilt. It's not just the beats themselves, but also the way people have played their hands that leads me to believe that they somehow know what cards will be on the flop/turn/river before the flop.

I had the same funny feeling about 18 months ago when I was playing on UB. Although I was still an overall winner at UB I began to lose in a way that just did not feel right to me. I really felt that some players could see my hole cards. I decided to cash out my balance and went to play on another site. Sure enough a few months later the super user scandal breaks.

I am getting the same bad feeling at FT now, except it feels like some players know what cards will be on the board before the flop. Like I said it is not just the beats themselves, but the very suspicious way in which some people play their hands that makes me feel something is wrong.

Does anyone else feel that this is happening at FT? On occasion I have seen people selling programs that they claim will allow you to predict the coming cards. I had always dismissed these as likely scams, but now I am wondering. Has anyone tried one of these programs? Has anyone seen something like this work? The only other thing that would explain what I am seeing is if there was a way for the players to control what cards would be on the flop/turn/river. I saw that some sites claim to use player actions like mouse movements to help create entropy to seed the algorithm. Could players use a program to control these mouse movements ect. to influence what cards appear on the flop?

For now I think I will just play somewhere else to be safe. However I have been data mining quite a bit on FT. I am wondering if we amassed enough hand histories, could we find a way to have them analyzed to see if everything is random? I would really like to know what is happening here just for my own piece of mind. Like most players I just want a fair game.

Guy.
I dont like full tilt at all. To many maniacs that plays any 2 and sucks out half time.
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Old 04-13-2009, 04:38 PM   #2095
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by guysmilie View Post
I have never really thought that any of the big sites would be systematically cheating players. However we have seen that rouge employees could cheat, just like what happened at Absolute and UB. And if the players could figure out a way to cheat many of them would.

I am a winner online and live. I have been playing for over ten years and have a winning record at Paradise, Party, UB, Stars and Full Tilt. However recently I have been getting the worst beats at Full Tilt. It's not just the beats themselves, but also the way people have played their hands that leads me to believe that they somehow know what cards will be on the flop/turn/river before the flop.

I had the same funny feeling about 18 months ago when I was playing on UB. Although I was still an overall winner at UB I began to lose in a way that just did not feel right to me. I really felt that some players could see my hole cards. I decided to cash out my balance and went to play on another site. Sure enough a few months later the super user scandal breaks.

I am getting the same bad feeling at FT now, except it feels like some players know what cards will be on the board before the flop. Like I said it is not just the beats themselves, but the very suspicious way in which some people play their hands that makes me feel something is wrong.

Does anyone else feel that this is happening at FT? On occasion I have seen people selling programs that they claim will allow you to predict the coming cards. I had always dismissed these as likely scams, but now I am wondering. Has anyone tried one of these programs? Has anyone seen something like this work? The only other thing that would explain what I am seeing is if there was a way for the players to control what cards would be on the flop/turn/river. I saw that some sites claim to use player actions like mouse movements to help create entropy to seed the algorithm. Could players use a program to control these mouse movements ect. to influence what cards appear on the flop?

For now I think I will just play somewhere else to be safe. However I have been data mining quite a bit on FT. I am wondering if we amassed enough hand histories, could we find a way to have them analyzed to see if everything is random? I would really like to know what is happening here just for my own piece of mind. Like most players I just want a fair game.

Guy.
Yep I know exactly what you mean. Those hands are the worst when you ve been sucked out on and have no explanation for why the villain has played the hand that way.
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Old 04-13-2009, 06:34 PM   #2096
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Yep I know exactly what you mean. Those hands are the worst when you ve been sucked out on and have no explanation for why the villain has played the hand that way.
Hint, the other player may just be bad at poker then got lucky.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
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Old 04-13-2009, 06:44 PM   #2097
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
But not always.
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Old 04-14-2009, 06:56 AM   #2098
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
OMGOMGOMG so take this hand for example which took place two days ago:

I open KK in MP because I'm fly like that. BB RRes, I call because I'm the ****. Flop comes 3-3-2, as dry as can be. He CBets near pot, I ship because bitches love calling, and he calls obv. with 10-10. Turn+river comes some **** like 8-J, and I win an $800 pot because it's what I do.
Awsome, man, just awesome!
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Old 04-14-2009, 07:01 AM   #2099
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Yep I know exactly what you mean. Those hands are the worst when you ve been sucked out on and have no explanation for why the villain has played the hand that way.
Whaddya mean, no explanation?

It's rigged, ldo.
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Old 04-14-2009, 03:41 PM   #2100
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

I'm quite surprised that the main response to my posts were the same as if I'd said "omg my AA just got beaten by someone with 55". Something with an 80% probability. Also getting 5 AA in 30 hands is no where near as unlikely as 4 AA in 5 hands. We're talking orders of magnitude here. I accept the rationalisation that there have been billions of hands on Full Tilt, hence this situation has occurred due to weight of numbers. But when you observe an incredibly unlikely event, you really need to question your assumptions.

According to my "creative" maths (involving the binomial distribution), the chances of getting 5 AA in 30 hands is approximately 1 in 4 million. Hardly a miracle, but a rare occurrence (one in a lifetime?) However, I'd be less suspicious if I saw this in live play, as people aren't exactly perfect at shuffling (in fact, some people are terrible - doesn't take much card playing to work this out). If the odds of AA increase to 1/100 instead of 1/221, the odds drop considerably (to 1 in 90 thousand). I suggest some of the mathematical purists play with Excel.
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