Youre right and I never said that.

Josem is an exception to this rule. He always seems logical, tactful and intelligent. If he's a "shill" he's a damn good one!

I am currently open to PM's from "riggies" to consolidate an opinion. I won't put much effort into it, mind you. But failing a LEGITIMATE attempt to prove it's rigged will do more in the cause of "legit" than any amount of statistics accumulated to date via this thread.

Josem, can you recommend any "riggies" I seek out/PM. Preferably intelligent with a proven track record for defending "rigged"?

Here's evidence that indicates that this isn't true:

http://www.cigital.com/resources/gaming/

Two audits by the leading Online Gaming Security company confirming that the shuffle is truly random.

Yes.

Probably not

online gaming security comapanys are paid off for sure i would bet my life on it

TY. By definition, the people who believe it is rigged have this belief because of various cognitive biases.

I don't think that there's any way of having a "proven track record" given that the beliefs are based upon these intellectual holes.

Wikipedia has a reasonable introduction to the issue:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

I wasn't accusing you having done that. Just pointing out why some riggies are not taken seriously.


And in perfect timing pooflinger posts! Note his certainty. He has no evidence, yet from this zero evidence draws a 100% conclusion.

See what I mean Toltec?

This is a pretty typical baseless slander by someone who makes no contribution of any value to this discussion.

Is this one "audit"....or does stars open their server for random audits without notice over the course of years?

well you throw ot claims that these secuirty companys can be trusted 100 percent which isnt true

Ok, I think we got to a reasonable state of conversation, so I will ask a question the most simple way I can:

If the site is manipulating the distribution of cards the site can choose where and when it will be manipulated....

Spade can see if the frequency of FD is totally right, but can he see if the frequency is right when the players involved have the S and R first letter at the nick?
How can someone find the manipulation without knowing where or when the site is doing it?

I will use an example outside poker to illustrate:

Lets say a company put in the market a new anti migraine drug, and this new drug (without anyone yet knowing) harms the heart?

The drug is marketed, everyone is using it and everything is going fine.

Some researchers make a work to see if this drugs affect the liver and find it has no effect in the liver its safe for the liver.

The drug keeps being marketed.

Then 10 years after the drug is in the market a group of researchers make a trial to see if the drug affects the heart, and what they discover, it harms the heart.

The point is, if they havent done that study about cardiac harm it would never be discovered.


Getting back to online poker, if the sites can manipulate the distribution of cards how can we detect it without knowing where they are manipulating it?

Another point, in the case of the anti migraine drug, it has a sistematically effect in the heart so the bigger the sample more visible it will get.

In the case of online poker we are talking about manipulation, that can be made and stopped at any time so the sample size dont matter.

and now shills respond with if there is any manipulation what so ever it will be caught

"Intellectual holes".....no, that's not an insult.....

FYI.....quote from wiki..."Cognitive biases are instances of evolved mental behavior. Some are presumably adaptive, for example, because they lead to more effective actions or enable faster decisions"

That's the results of the most recent audit.

The regulators have the right to do random audits without notice any time on PokerStars. I don't know much about the regulatory environment that other sites operate under - for example, the Kahnawake Gaming Commission which "regulates" Absolute Poker, Ultimate Bet and Bodog will obviously have different rules.

I didn't claim that they can be trusted 100%.

You can scroll up two posts and read it for goodness sake. I don't understand why you need to keep posting lies and falsehoods. It doesn't convince anyone, and your lies are pretty transparent to all to see. It just undermines your own argument.

There are some people who may raise genuine concerns, but the more that you post, the more that you undermine your own point of view.

But it's true?

Yeah, exactly.

Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.

Most people have a skewed perception of what is actually occurring at
the poker table. We tend to remember the bad beats, and forget the
times our best hand holds up, this means we think we are suffering a
much greater proportion of bad beats than we actually are. This is
simply how the human mind works, and is part of the reason why so many
players complain about their hands being outdrawn.

The truth is that your hands do stand up as often as they are meant
to, and this is entirely provable by a proper statistical analysis of your hand histories.

I suggest that you look at your hand histories - This will confirm that there is a fair game, and, as a bonus, most players also find that analyzing their hands helps them as players.

this

Good reasoning huh?

Well, if you're posting in a thread claiming that online poker is rigged, you're probably going to have a hunch that it is rigged in a particular way? Perhaps you could explain your hunch, and then test it?

Not really.

If you don't know the answer, conduct an investigation?

If you can't describe how it is happening, how can you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say it is happening?

stats mean nothing if the sites cherry pick hands to screw you so your check your stats argument has no merrit josem

You seriously believe you're so special and important that there's some guy sitting in an office somewhere who's sole job at work is to make you lose?

You're an awfully vain individual.

I will use a extreme example to make my theoretical point.

Lets say a site manipulates the distribution of 10 hands, just 10 hands, and in the next 10 thousand hands the site keeps it random. Theres no way to find that manipulated hands. They will be in the normal curve.

Now take my last example to the number of hands that are dealt in real sites...they can manipulate a lot of hands without being perceived.

If your argument is that the effect of such rigging is so small that it is undetectable, then it is also so small to be irrelevant.