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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,449 34.95%
No 5,524 55.98%
Undecided 895 9.07%
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:15 PM   #1626
SooperFish24
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
how about this? doesn't matter how many hands you have in your database - just find a statistical anomaly. we'll go from there.

fair enough?
Ok fair enough I just checked my 50k hands or so from ongame.

Got dealt 77 217 times compared to an average of about 250 times for every other pair.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:16 PM   #1627
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
So all this time you cry for evidence yet now you say you couldnt decide no matter what evidence was presented. Doesnt that make you bias?

As for stats how about you were shown 20 new accounts on a site all showing way higher all in EV for their first 5k hands.

No, because if you posted some evidence there are people on these forums that would be able to analyze it as has happened in the past.

Your second is a perfect example of why it is hard to debate with you given your limited knowledge in probability. I'm not asking you to be an expert in it, as I'm not, but at least know how it works.

For those 20 accounts if they all played 5000 hands and had some MASSIVE discrepancies in their hand history like 80% favored hands being beaten 80% of the time then yes that could be considered a statistical anomaly and warrant further investigation. But 5000 hands isn't nearly enough to make any sort of statistical conclusion from. However, the higher the hand history the lower the variance should be.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:19 PM   #1628
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Ok fair enough I just checked my 50k hands or so from ongame.

Got dealt 77 217 times compared to an average of about 250 times for every other pair.
hmm, so they're rigging pocket 7's, are they?

but seriously, could anyone else with about 50k Ongame hands compare their findings?

I'll check on Microgaming, ok?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:23 PM   #1629
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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hmm, so they're rigging pocket 7's, are they?

but seriously, could anyone else with about 50k Ongame hands compare their findings?

I'll check on Microgaming, ok?
I didnt say that it was any kind of evidence just that its an anomaly which is what you asked for right?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:27 PM   #1630
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
But what could be considered STATISTICAL EVIDENCE?
To start, how about something that supports whatever your argument is? i.e. if it's rigged, how exactly is it rigged? e.g. if you think you don't think that your flush draws hit as often as they should when you're all-in, then post every flush draw hand you've played.
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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
We ve all seen the most horrible graphs or under EV results. What would it take for people to turn around and say "OK I can see somethings very wrong here?
I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary. I've seen pretty sick bad luck, and pretty sick good luck. Nothing different from my experience playing live. And yes, I've seen that thread in BBV about the guy who's 100BI under expectation.
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PROOF? What exactly would that be in your mind? Losing with AA 100 times in a row AIPF vs 1 player?
Proof to me would be beyond reasonable doubt.

EDIT: Also:
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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Keeping it secret. Just have a very small team in the know who are very well paid.
The amount of money this team would have to be paid to keep quiet would almost certainly be more than the tiny amounts of extra rake they're making by making "action hands" (actually I have no idea what your argument is, could you please restate it?)

That coupled with that fact that they could be discovered anyway makes the idea so ridiculously -EV that the sites would have to be really really stupid to rig it.

Last edited by DMoogle; 04-06-2009 at 06:35 PM.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:33 PM   #1631
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $128.70
UTG: $98.50
CO: $89.60
BTN: $100.00
SB: $105.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A A
1 fold, CO raises to $4, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($28.50) 2 5 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $19, BTN calls $19

Turn: ($66.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $39, BTN raises to $69 all in, Hero calls $30

River: ($204.50) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $204.50
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
BTN shows 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights)
BTN wins $202.50
(Rake: $2.00)

Shocking beat. The guy was on monkey tilt after what he said was a -10 buyin session.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:35 PM   #1632
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $128.70
UTG: $98.50
CO: $89.60
BTN: $100.00
SB: $105.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A A
1 fold, CO raises to $4, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($28.50) 2 5 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $19, BTN calls $19

Turn: ($66.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $39, BTN raises to $69 all in, Hero calls $30

River: ($204.50) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $204.50
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
BTN shows 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights)
BTN wins $202.50
(Rake: $2.00)

Shocking beat. The guy was on monkey tilt after what he said was a -10 buyin session.
What does this prove?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:37 PM   #1633
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I didnt say that it was any kind of evidence just that its an anomaly which is what you asked for right?
In what way was it a statistical anomaly?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:37 PM   #1634
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

74449 hands on Microgaming

dealt pairs 4384 times, so the average should be about 337 each...

I got TT 364 times, highest of any pocket pair. I've made $123.42 with that hand.

Oddly, 77 is 2nd on that list - got it 354 times. However, I've lost $10.80 with them.

Tied for bottom of the list is JJ & 66, (322 each) I've profited a total of $28.71 with those two combined.

It seems that the odds of getting dealt a pocket pair is ~ 16:1, so I'm slightly below that.

Nothing seems to be really out of the ordinary here to me.
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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
I didnt say that it was any kind of evidence just that its an anomaly which is what you asked for right?
Sooper, that's the first thing close to any sort of data you've presented. I don't even care what you think it might prove, it seems that you don't really feel it's indicative of anything in particular either, but hey - it's a start. Where do you want to go from here?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:37 PM   #1635
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

OK after he posted that hand I'm convinced he's leveling us all.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:39 PM   #1636
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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What does this prove?
that he's considerate enough to use the hand converter.

thanks!
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:40 PM   #1637
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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PROOF? What exactly would that be in your mind? Losing with AA 100 times in a row AIPF vs 1 player?
Yes, that's an example that could not be due to chance, since the chance of that happening to any poker player on the earth in our lifetime is essentially zero. It doesn't have to be that extreme, but the point is you need some data for people to look at.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:43 PM   #1638
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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What does this prove?
Nothing I was just looking through my PT and remembered this shocker and thought Id post it.

It isnt intended to prove anything.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:43 PM   #1639
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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the point is you need some data for people to look at.
wouldn't hurt to have an idea what we're looking for either.

just, as a general guideline, ya know?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Nothing I was just looking through my PT and remembered this shocker and thought Id post it.

It isnt intended to prove anything.
ok, do you want to get to the bottom of this or not?

I could post random hands too. honestly, I'm about to watch some Witchblade DVD's and I'm much more interested in that.

so, how about a hypothesis of what you think is happening and we'll see if we can't find proof of it or not - and tell you how to do the same along the way, ok?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:48 PM   #1640
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
74449 hands on Microgaming

dealt pairs 4384 times, so the average should be about 337 each...

I got TT 364 times, highest of any pocket pair. I've made $123.42 with that hand.

Oddly, 77 is 2nd on that list - got it 354 times. However, I've lost $10.80 with them.

Tied for bottom of the list is JJ & 66, (322 each) I've profited a total of $28.71 with those two combined.

It seems that the odds of getting dealt a pocket pair is ~ 16:1, so I'm slightly below that.

Nothing seems to be really out of the ordinary here to me.

Sooper, that's the first thing close to any sort of data you've presented. I don't even care what you think it might prove, it seems that you don't really feel it's indicative of anything in particular either, but hey - it's a start. Where do you want to go from here?
Well at least your being civil Mark unlike qpw.

Where do we go. Well Im going to bed for now, gonna play a little Dead Rising On Xbox, an excellent game for those who havent played it. It a little rigged though against quality gamers like myself(joke before you all have a fit).

Ill browse this thread at some point mid afternoon tmrow.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:50 PM   #1641
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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wouldn't hurt to have an idea what we're looking for either.

just, as a general guideline, ya know?

ok, do you want to get to the bottom of this or not?

I could post random hands too. honestly, I'm about to watch some Witchblade DVD's and I'm much more interested in that.

so, how about a hypothesis of what you think is happening and we'll see if we can't find proof of it or not - and tell you how to do the same along the way, ok?
Ok Ill hypothesise tmrow when Im back and we can discuss it. Looks like you ve got better things to do aswell lol.

What s a witchblade? TV series?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:51 PM   #1642
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Well at least your being civil Mark unlike qpw.
he's been the voice of reason while I ranted before, so it's nice to look out for each other occasionally.
Quote:
Where do we go. Well Im going to bed for now, gonna play a little Dead Rising On Xbox, an excellent game for those who havent played it. It a little rigged though against quality gamers like myself(joke before you all have a fit).

Ill browse this thread at some point mid afternoon tmrow.
terrific, maybe we can all have a lovely tea and ice cream picnic together soon too and discuss our findings, shall we?
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:54 PM   #1643
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Ok Ill hypothesise tmrow when Im back and we can discuss it. Looks like you ve got better things to do aswell lol.

What s a witchblade? TV series?
yeah, the Japanese version.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0813971/

long story short - originally a US comic book, then a USA Network series. Later, made into an anime mini-series in Japan. that one kicks ass. I'm gonna watch it now.
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Old 04-06-2009, 06:55 PM   #1644
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Nothing I was just looking through my PT and remembered this shocker and thought Id post it.

It isnt intended to prove anything.
The fact that you think that hand was a "shocker" may speak to why you are so suspicious of the online game.

In reality in that exact situation with the information you have provided the player holding the pocket 8's should win once every 25 hands. Not really that shocking is it?
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Old 04-06-2009, 07:00 PM   #1645
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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The fact that you think that hand was a "shocker" may speak to why you are so suspicious of the online game.

In reality in that exact situation with the information you have provided the player holding the pocket 8's should win once every 25 hands. Not really that shocking is it?
Not even that bad. On the turn when all the money went in, the 88 is 4.55% to win, or once in every 22 rivers he wins. But that's the one time we remember.
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Old 04-06-2009, 07:02 PM   #1646
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

so is that shocking?
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Old 04-06-2009, 07:12 PM   #1647
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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so is that shocking?
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! My favorite on the turn should never lose.
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Old 04-06-2009, 07:13 PM   #1648
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

man, I hit a 2-outer on the river once. it was pretty nice.
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Old 04-06-2009, 07:56 PM   #1649
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Ok, probably not the right place to put my first post on this poker forum. But i see a very hot discussion about OP being rigged :-). Now, if it were rigged you wouldn not detect it ever - becouse he woulda been made the way, that noone could do so. Ex. :

- Eliminating players in certain stages of tournaments, giving them coolers against similar stacks to theirs; Benefiting new account noobs, who has no clue about a game - Benefit from that is that they will not quit and only by keeping them around for a while like 2K hands with no major loses may give them hope that they can really make money on that. I am not sure about rigging cash games, as you would still win a certain ammount in the long run (atleast it works for me). Sit and goes - While i have possitive graps on some poker sites, and small loses on others i have 1 site in particular when i cant lose or win. Only thing i lose in the long run is the rake. If i play a session of 12sngs i will get suckoud by 3 outers, and finally i will finish a session even, or a loss of couple of $. Now, on other poker room i have ROI of 10% on sngs, and playing against waaay better players. (I wont mention any poker room name in this post coz i dont care) And by playing 1 or 2 $ sngs i will make an average of 9-18c respectivly in each tournament after 1K games. But on first poker room my graph is just going up and down, i m8 get 100$ upswing but later i get 110$ downswing and so on. I am not bad player i am just very unlucky. I liked to gamble all of my life, but i always have been on a losing side of gamblers, and there is just no way to win for me . I probably never had really good rush on poker. Well, maybe once.
About the proves .. Whats about tournament play - I have over 300K hands, and 43bb/100 win rate. I have played tons of tournaments and i didnt had any major win on those. Most of the time geting knocked out by the most redicoulus way, bad beat, cooler, or an idiot call down. So, if i have 43bb/100 win rate, shouldnt i be wining player in the long run after over 1K MTTs and have atleast 1 big tournament win ? Jus curiuos, and as i say i dont claim anything just please tell me that its normal, or its a variance and i will get back to it in couple of month.

I dont loose money on cash games, or sit and goes. Only MTTs. And its not about bad play, its all bad beats :-P.


Added stuff:

I had major MTT winings in my poker career, i deposited maybe 1 time like 10$ to activate my account. I have around 700$ loses on mtts on 1 particular site without even making deposit there. All other poker sites results look fine, but the one i played most just makes no sence.

Last edited by Username^^; 04-06-2009 at 08:03 PM. Reason: add some stuff
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Old 04-06-2009, 08:01 PM   #1650
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