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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,503 34.88%
No
5,608 55.84%
Undecided
932 9.28%

02-27-2010 , 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
Hahahaha...oh man you are such an idiot. Im surprised you figured reading out. I know better than try and get you to answer the question. This wasnt posted for you. Youre the last guy this was posted for.
Here's a little hint. When reputable posters well versed in mathematics and statistical probability consistently debunk everything you have to say, you MIGHT want to consider that you're actually the moron in the discussion.
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02-27-2010 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
44^44 is a large enough degree of confidence
I am looking for a degree. What degree, do you think, would 80% of us accept in order to condemn.

Understand that if you look at which card was dealt first in the last 52 deals.
You would be looking at something that only had a 52^52 chance. Yet, no one would consider it enough to condemn. Something that was 52^52 had to happen.

We need to look at things in a different way. And being repeatable doesn't hold the answer because each flawed sequence may happen only once for a short time and then be supplanted with something new.

The 44^44 example is good because it only needed to happen once since it is so tied to a certain poker scenario.

I guess this has already been covered in the Probability forum and I'm just ignorant to it.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
If you go to the casino and use math to beat the house, you will be kicked out. There is a simlar thing at play here. IF the poker is rigged, it will be protected by those with money at stake. I'm willing to bet, based on some of the responses here by guys who obviosuly know a good deal of math, yet answer to certain ideas as if they cant think outside basic principles, that some of them might also think it is rigged. But that even within the rigged paradigm they can make enough money that they dont want the system changed. A lot of these complex proofs being supplied are fairly complex, yet partial, but they go far enough in existence and complexity alone to create the smoke and mirrors illusion that things are testable and being tested.

In simple analogy, if the NBA raised the baskets to 12 feet making it harder for everyone who could dunk to be good because they could dunk, you would close the gap between them and players who couldnt dunk. But if those plyers who could dunk before still had an edge and were still winning, maybe not as easily as before but still the only game in town, they wouldnt care as long as they were winning.
Wow, you're taking the whole paranoid shill accusation to a whole new level. Now the shills are not just protecting the sites, but putting forward fake math as well? Sounds like a foolproof plan to me!
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Yeah, we did for a while and basically it was based on the concept of "non action" flops since the real goals of any rigging (if they exist) would be


- Not get caught
- Not target specific people (as that would be an easy way to get caught)
- Be significant enough in income as to justify all the risks

My basic premise would be to have 1 in say 100 hands be a non action hand where for instance in fixed limit games a player in early position gets AA/KK etc and everyone else gets random utter unplayable trash and the BB gets a hand that would call a raise like 89h or 33

Have the flop smash the good hand and miss the bad hand completely to create the following action most of the time

raise/lots of folds/call preflop
check/bet/fold

Idea being that it is a hand that would never stand out (why riggies think standout hands would be where rigging takes place baffles me), would be very infrequent and would generate rake (flop seen) with a faster hand.

Certainly not as sexy as doomswitched and massive conspiracies vs freeroll players, but in theory more practical, however we could never get the numbers to make it make enough to be worth the risk.

Again, would be a fun discussion to have, but no point if too much spam with fake/dumb riggies like this mumu guys is taking place.
I'm working on a contest proposal, with requirements for a good scheme and a prize.

Save the ideas for a few minutes and I'll post it.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
I dont see any of these brilliant mathematical minds taking on my chllange. Which one is random and which one did I flip? I KNOW you dont know but what about these math geniuses you speak of?
the math geniuses have figured out it's a waste of their time to talk with someone as closeminded as you are.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkman
I am looking for a degree. What degree, do you think, would 80% of us accept in order to condemn.

Understand that if you look at which card was dealt first in the last 52 deals.
You would be looking at something that only had a 52^52 chance. Yet, no one would consider it enough to condemn. Something that was 52^52 had to happen.

We need to look at things in a different way. And being repeatable doesn't hold the answer because each flawed sequence may happen only once for a short time and then be supplanted with something new.

The 44^44 example is good because it only needed to happen once since it is so tied to a certain poker scenario.

I guess this has already been covered in the Probability forum and I'm just ignorant to it.
If you have to look at past hands, which I disagree with by the way, you at the very least would still have to look at a continuous sample of hands. If I were to go back and look at the last 100 times I got all in with one out, for example, it would not be all that big a deal if I hit enough of them where we'd calculate the odds to be one in a million. Billions of hands of online poker have been dealt and such an occurrence will be found somewhere. With math though we have the ability to test further, and what's what we need to do when we come across one of those one in a million scenarios. It may be nothing, it may be something, and that's why we need to test more instead of draw a conclusion.

If I ran that test and a bunch of other people did as well and came out to the same frequency, we'd probably have an issue. I think this is far more complex than you're trying to make it.

Your argument revolves around cherrypicked samples. Yes, you can always look at the flop dealt which comes Jc Qs 3d and say it was 1 in 140,608 to come out in that order. That proves nothing.

Even if you're going back over past hands, you need to form your hypothesis before looking at the hands and not just search for a bunch of rare events.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
Well lets find out. lets use a more accurate example:

[47338][54324][78934][78933][23422]
[43738][54324][78934][79833][23422]

Now which one is the random one and which one did I flip numbers around for?
And could you tell me the same information about each set if i only posted one or the other?
Actually I do have one question--did you come up with one set of random numbers, then (randomly) switch two pairs to get the second set? If so, (and I have a feeling this is what you did), it just goes to show two things..you weren't listening to what other people have been saying, and second, you don't get it.

People have said ITT (including myself I believe) that if you switch random cards at random (that is, without knowing their values or anything) then you couldn't detect that, but it also isn't fixing the games either. A random card is a random card.
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02-27-2010 , 11:32 PM
Mumu has to be a gimmick right?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
First of all, you didn't specify how the cards would fall. You mention that based on equity a hand will hold up less often than it should. That involves changing the random distribution of cards based on the situation.
Correct.

Quote:
It's one thing to present a theory on how to do something and it's another to specifically show how it can be done without detection.
I don't understand... Do you mean show technically how to tamper with the RNG? That's way beyond my pay grade. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you're saying. I thought I presented a theory and showed why if true, it would be almost impossible to detect. I'm really not good with this stuff and others here are a lot smarter than me. I'm just saying that if you tweaked equity percentages ever so slightly, and further fine tuned it so that it's more prevelant in the rarer large pots, than in the much more common smaller ones, combined with not being privvy to folded hole cards, I don't see how anyone could detect that. If you're asking me to provide details on how all this is implemented from an engineering standpoint, then I'll just concede now that I'm full of hot air. I'd have no idea where to start.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
In simple analogy, if the NBA raised the baskets to 12 feet making it harder for everyone who could dunk to be good because they could dunk, you would close the gap between them and players who couldnt dunk. But if those plyers who could dunk before still had an edge and were still winning, maybe not as easily as before but still the only game in town, they wouldnt care as long as they were winning.
This seems perfectly reasonable to me.
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02-27-2010 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lestat
Correct.



I don't understand... Do you mean show technically how to tamper with the RNG? That's way beyond my pay grade. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you're saying. I thought I presented a theory and showed why if true, it would be almost impossible to detect. I'm really not good with this stuff and others here are a lot smarter than me. I'm just saying that if you tweaked equity percentages ever so slightly, and further fine tuned it so that it's more prevelant in the rarer large pots, than in the much more common smaller ones, combined with not being privvy to folded hole cards, I don't see how anyone could detect that. If you're asking me to provide details on how all this is implemented from an engineering standpoint, then I'll just concede now that I'm full of hot air. I'd have no idea where to start.
There are others who can probably do a better job explaining it than I, I'll admit. But no I'm not talking about how you'd get into the actual tampering of the RNG. But as always in these discussions the only thing that ends up mattering is the output. If suddenly players started hitting their hands less often than they should, that's testable both by looking at a bunch of winning players all in expected value, to the point where you end up with a large sample in which you can spot the results that are off more than a few standard deviations (even a couple of % over a large enough sample ends up being detectable in that way), not to mention that the distribution of how cards fall would have to be altered. Board texture over time would have to be at least somewhat skewed from expectation.
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02-27-2010 , 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lestat
This seems perfectly reasonable to me.
Reasonable in theory, but detectable. We'd all notice the hoop is 2 feet higher.

Once again Mumu makes a completely irrelevant point completely unrelated to the discussion. We start out talking about how they'd rig it and the detectability of that rigging and keep reverting back to analogies that have nothing to do with that whatsoever.

Last edited by NFuego20; 02-27-2010 at 11:51 PM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
Thank you for assuming but you can keep it. The truth is there was a systematic way i swapped the numbers and would gladly tell you what it was, but you are suppose to be able to figure it out without knowing that element. You are lucky you even got both sets of strings.
Come clean...you're levelling aren't you?
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02-27-2010 , 11:53 PM
Rigg-It Contest

*** with prizes ***

I think the design of a scheme to rig online poker needs to have certain ground rules, so I'll propose some. I'll also put up a prize for a qualified scheme, but submitting ideas certainly doesn't require meeting the prize qualifications and you can play without meeting my requirements. The forum participants will judge by consensus if someone wins, but I'll reserve final say based on the arguments presented.

Here's my list of design criteria for a rigged scheme:
  1. The goal must be to increase revenue, there is no other reason to do it. There are only two ways a site can increase revenue, and everything boils down to one of these.

    The first way is to increase the average stakes being played, or the average tourney buyins paid. This doesn't lend itself to rigging, since it is handled very well though the legitimate efforts of marketing, player retention and education, and varied and interesting game structures. I don't think this method is feasible, but maybe someone thinks of a way. I'll mention for the short bus riders that making tourneys play faster doesn't qualify because that is very simply done by changing the structure, it doesn't need to be rigged.

    The other way, and the one that any rigged scheme really has to accomplish over time, is to have more butts in seats (virtual ones) on a 24/7 averaged basis. Actual numbers can be found on pokerscout, giving you something to work with. Revenue is a direct function of the 24/7-averaged cash players in seats, multiplied by the stakes multiplied by the rake formula, plus average tourney players in seats multiplied by the average entry.

    More players in seats can be accomplished by making bankrolls last longer, or by getting players to deposit more, or by getting players to not quit the site (and obviously by getting new ones, but that is marketing). And maybe you can think of other ways, like a new deposit boomswitch or something, or a cashout curse. The most obvious way is to make win/loss rates bunch closer together for most players so the bankrolls lasts until the money is all churned into rake. Let me say right here, simply making pots bigger will take a very convincing math explanation of how that will increase site revenue. It increases rake for one pot, it does not make money churn longer between players. That doesn't mean pot sizes can't be part of your scheme, but keep in mind you'll have to show the math.

    To qualify for the prize, the scheme must be capable of adding 5% to the site revenue, assuming it has been in place long enough to stabilize. This must be backed up by math, including pertinent details like average pot sizes and stakes, rake, occupied seats, hands per hour, etc., and the effect of the scheme on those things. My opinion is that anything less than 5% revenue boost could never justify the risks at a large site. You will need to use realistic numbers in your math. Assume a billion dollar site to make it easy, and add $50 million a year. Adding 10% or $100 million doubles the prize

  2. A rigged scheme must be hard to detect. Many players have large personal hand histories, and there are quite a few large aggregated databases around now that have multi-billion hands. The scheme needs to be hard to detect in both of those.
    Personal databases have all of your holecards. Observed databases only have community cards and showdown cards. So different tests can be used on each type of database. One has a complete set of holecards, and the other has enormous sample sizes and multiple player histories. The scheme needs to avoid detection in both. It might also be possible to design a scheme that is only detectable if players pool their personal hand histories. Avoiding that one would be a bonus.

    You must assume that at some point the available data will be examined by statistical experts who know how to test the data. Assuming no one will find something sitting there to be found is not acceptable. So it has to be difficult for experts to prove something is manipulated. The forum consensus on this will determine if the requirement is met for the prize.

  3. Keeping the scheme secret in a large company is necessary. If everyone knows it, the world would soon know it. This is not a requirement for my prize, but it's a real world requirement. Figure out the logistics of this.

Prize $250 for 5% revenue boost, $500 for 10% revenue boost
To win, you must:
  • Be first with your idea. That means you should post a fully-fleshed out scheme so you can claim it as your own. The basic requirements need to be posted by you. That doesn't mean you have to post it all at once, and some forum discussion is fine to flesh out details as long as it remains basically unchanged from what you originally propose. I'll be the judge of whether a prize gets split.
  • Meet the requirements I've described, to the consensus of the forum posters. I'll be the final judge but will accept the consensus opinion.
  • Payment will be made by transfer on Stars or Full Tilt.

------

Discuss and tell me if these are acceptable.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingOfFelt
Mumu has to be a gimmick right?
He's definitely a gimmick. Just not sure whose gimmick it is. I thought it was snake but given the fact that he's had about 3 gimmicks banned recently, I suppose it's not.
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02-27-2010 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!!

UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR AWARD

Everything I've explained has been done better than you have.

And that includes my "I know you are but what am I" post.

That post had more thought involved than all your ramblings.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-27-2010 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
Thank you for assuming but you can keep it. The truth is there was a systematic way i swapped the numbers and would gladly tell you what it was, but you are suppose to be able to figure it out without knowing that element. You are lucky you even got both sets of strings.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-28-2010 , 12:02 AM
Increasing average pot size might do it.

More action hands might do it if that would make FISH want to deposit more often.

I think any entrant should be able to present his case of why he thinks it would produce the 5% extra income.
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02-28-2010 , 12:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
Thank you for assuming but you can keep it. The truth is there was a systematic way i swapped the numbers and would gladly tell you what it was, but you are suppose to be able to figure it out without knowing that element. You are lucky you even got both sets of strings.
Thank you for confirming that you don't know what you're talking about.

I appreciate it
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02-28-2010 , 12:16 AM
Just playing Devil's advocate here, I'll post a theory I saw presented elsewhere (thus intentionally disqualifying myself from the pool).

There would be a tracking system to track players and determine which ones needed a boost and which ones didn't. I don't think putting player tracking in place would set off any alarm bells, since hopefully the site is already determining who the winning and losing players are for their marketing/player retention efforts.

Sticking with Holdem as the easiest case to work with, the mechanics of a hand would happen as follows.

1. The system shuffles a deck, storing random values from 1-52 in a data structure.

2. The system determines how many players are in the upcoming hand.

3. The system, in a temporary holding space, deals out hands and board cards for the upcoming hand.

4. The system analyzes the hole cards and board and determines the best possible winning hand by the river.

5. The system assigns the winning cards to the player most needing a boost. It assigns the other hole cards to the other players at random.

6. The hand is dealt to the players as decided by the pre-selection process and the hand plays out as normal.

Now, the problem with this system is, let's say the system pre-deals a board of A Q 4 6 2 rainbow and among the random hole cards that were pre-dealt, one person gets 53o as hole cards. That 53o will be the best hand should that player stay all the way to the river, but there's no way they'll know that, nor can the system make them stay in. The player needing the boost may be UTG and would fold the hand pre-flop.

I don't believe this system would be detected by your typical hand history analysis since the hole card distribution is random (i.e. we're not dealing more premiums to a player needing a boost. They're getting the same garbage cards that would have been dealt randomly.) The board card distribution should also be undetectable since we're not manipulating the board cards at all.

Where this system falls flat is in the ability to reliably enhance revenue. Since many hands will end before showdown due to the way a hand is played and the skill of the opponents in the hand, there's no way to be assured that the weak player that needs help will take advantage of the help being offered and thus they may go broke just as quickly as before.
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02-28-2010 , 12:19 AM
In addition, the system would have to find a way to not always make sure the worst player has the best hand in the end. There are the occasional megafish who play no foldem holdem. They'd be winning an awful lot of pots and would surely notice the good luck.
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02-28-2010 , 12:20 AM
One issue I see with the above is that my hole cards will then be drawn from a different distribution--If I were a winning player, I'd likely see more cards with lower values on them (or more big gap cards), and so a test on an individual's hole cards in theory would be able to detect the above system. Though it is fairly subtle.

Edit: or you might see a lot more sets and the like from someone (as noted by NFuego, kind of just fleshing out his thoughts)
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02-28-2010 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumuTrader
You need to just admit defeat. Youll look less stupid.
You've got a mirror next to your computer?
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02-28-2010 , 12:24 AM
Quote:
Again maam, join me in the Sunday Million each week or the $55+ tournaments I play pretty much daily
You play 55$ tourneys every day yet your avg buy in is 12 bucks? Nice try big man. Keep up the petty insults. It's so you. Keep grinding with top 5 hands you pro you.
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02-28-2010 , 12:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
In addition, the system would have to find a way to not always make sure the worst player has the best hand in the end. There are the occasional megafish who play no foldem holdem. They'd be winning an awful lot of pots and would surely notice the good luck.
True, but once the player has been given the boost to cut their losing streak, they'll no longer be needing the boost. Besides, some players run good for a while, then fall apart the rest of the time *cough* Jamie Gold *cough*

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaneP
One issue I see with the above is that my hole cards will then be drawn from a different distribution--If I were a winning player, I'd likely see more cards with lower values on them (or more big gap cards), and so a test on an individual's hole cards in theory would be able to detect the above system. Though it is fairly subtle.

Edit: or you might see a lot more sets and the like from someone (as noted by NFuego, kind of just fleshing out his thoughts)
Winning players may not see themselves being dealt worse cards. AA might still be the best starting hand at the table. 62o might be the river winning hand. I think the fact that it's being pre-dealt from a random deck keeps the distribution random, but I could be off.

Thanks for the feedback, though.
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