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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,502 34.89%
No
5,607 55.86%
Undecided
929 9.25%

02-13-2010 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smithcommajohn
Yeah, that does, I think. So, essentially what you're saying is that the low number of 73o observations is insignificant by itself because it could simply be part of the tail of a normal distribution of all non-suited non-pairs.
Correct, but if you thought 73o in particular was showing up oddly then you would check that hand in more samples. It shouldn't be the outlier any more often than any other hand, on average.

Quote:
Am I getting this, spadebidder?
Yes.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:24 PM
Actually, do I have to count each tail? That would be 3%, right?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smithcommajohn
Actually, do I have to count each tail? That would be 3%, right?
No, 2.5 SD covers approximately 98.7% of all outcomes in a two-tailed distribution (I rounded before). In a large enough sample you'd want to see 1.3%/2 on both ends, but your numbers are too small to expect the distribution to be that uniform.

Here's a handy tool:
http://www.measuringusability.com/pcalcz.php
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
No, 2.5 SD covers approximately 98.7% of all outcomes in a two-tailed distribution (I rounded before). In a large enough sample you'd want to see 1.3%/2 on both ends, but your numbers are too small to expect the distribution to be that uniform.

Here's a handy tool:
http://www.measuringusability.com/pcalcz.php
How are you an occasional poker player and an RNG expert?

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I would say its 76.859403% likely that you are one of the RNG developers or technicians.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
No, 2.5 SD covers approximately 98.7% of all outcomes in a two-tailed distribution (I rounded before). In a large enough sample you'd want to see 1.3%/2 on both ends, but your numbers are too small to expect the distribution to be that uniform.

Here's a handy tool:
http://www.measuringusability.com/pcalcz.php
Understood. Yeah, the numbers are so small, it's hard to get them to work out smoothly, but I can see the gist of how it would work.

Hardcore learning ITT.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
How are you an occasional poker player and an RNG expert?

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I would say its 76.859403% likely that you are one of the RNG developers or technicians.
First off, we're not discussing the RNG. We're just talking probabilities.

Second off, that's all I'm feeding you, troll.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smithcommajohn
First off, we're not discussing the RNG. We're just talking probabilities.

Second off, that's all I'm feeding you, troll.
It tastes so goooooooooood
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
It tastes so goooooooooood
I get that a lot.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
How are you an occasional poker player and an RNG expert?

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I would say its 76.859403% likely that you are one of the RNG developers or technicians.
Here's a picture of me at work.

The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
Ive been waiting now 5 days for them to send me all my hand histories. They are probably editing them.
No less than 2 minutes after posting this I recieved a private email from PSMichaelJ offering to find out where my hand histories are. Which was nice of him.

But what that tells you is they are constantly monitoring this thread. Notice he isnt posting in here but was aware right away when I made this post. Because he either posts in here under a gimmick account or one of his employees who posts in here made him aware.

How about everyone be upfront about who they are as I have been. If you are from Pstars or FullTilt then let it be known. You are doing a terrible job of trying to diguise yourselves as regular players anyway.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
...PSMichaelJ
...
How about everyone be upfront about who they are as I have been. If you are from Pstars or FullTilt then let it be known. You are doing a terrible job of trying to diguise yourselves as regular players anyway.
Look at his profiles. Everyone but you knows his personal screenname, he doesn't hide it and never has. He was here before he was at PS. If you knew a little about online poker you'd know the backstory. Hint: AP/UB/60 Minutes.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
Look at his profiles. Everyone but you knows his personal screenname, he doesn't hide it and never has. He was here before he was at PS. If you knew a little about online poker you'd know the backstory. Hint: AP/UB/60 Minutes.
Which site pays you to so passionatly defend the sites daily?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigjames881
Xevoious, don't bother man. They put everything in this one thread so the stupidity can be contained.
FYP Troll
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
No less than 2 minutes after posting this I recieved a private email from PSMichaelJ offering to find out where my hand histories are. Which was nice of him.
Thanks.
Quote:
But what that tells you is they are constantly monitoring this thread. Notice he isnt posting in here but was aware right away when I made this post. Because he either posts in here under a gimmick account or one of his employees who posts in here made him aware.

How about everyone be upfront about who they are as I have been. If you are from Pstars or FullTilt then let it be known. You are doing a terrible job of trying to diguise yourselves as regular players anyway.
Hi,

As has been discussed repeatedly in this thread, that's me. I am PSMichaelJ. I work for PokerStars.

As evidenced by the fact that this has been repeatedly discussed and disclosed by me in this very thread, I am not trying to disguise myself in anyway.

You highlighted a problem you had with PokerStars; I am happy to do what I can to help resolve that.

It is normal to get player hand histories to them within 48 hours of their request. It is possible that the staff member who submitted your request lost it, failed to request them, or simply forgot them. As a general rule, when I (or any of my colleagues) are alerted to a possible mistake that we've made, we do our best to try to correct it.

regards,
Michael
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
No less than 2 minutes after posting this I recieved a private email from PSMichaelJ offering to find out where my hand histories are. Which was nice of him.

But what that tells you is they are constantly monitoring this thread. Notice he isnt posting in here but was aware right away when I made this post. Because he either posts in here under a gimmick account or one of his employees who posts in here made him aware.

How about everyone be upfront about who they are as I have been. If you are from Pstars or FullTilt then let it be known. You are doing a terrible job of trying to diguise yourselves as regular players anyway.
LOL
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem
Thanks.

Hi,

As has been discussed repeatedly in this thread, that's me. I am PSMichaelJ. I work for PokerStars.

As evidenced by the fact that this has been repeatedly discussed and disclosed by me in this very thread, I am not trying to disguise myself in anyway.

You highlighted a problem you had with PokerStars; I am happy to do what I can to help resolve that.

It is normal to get player hand histories to them within 48 hours of their request. It is possible that the staff member who submitted your request lost it, failed to request them, or simply forgot them. As a general rule, when I (or any of my colleagues) are alerted to a possible mistake that we've made, we do our best to try to correct it.

regards,
Michael
Why 2 accounts then? Why not just always post under your PS name. And who else in this thread is a PokerStars employee posting under an alternate name? hmmmmmmmm
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
Why 2 accounts then? Why not just always post under your PS name.
Because those are the TwoPlusTwo rules.

Here's the original thread I started on the issue:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...rstars-124537/

Quote:
And who else in this thread is a PokerStars employee posting under an alternate name? hmmmmmmmm
There aren't any PokerStars employees posting under alternate names.

This issue is pretty demonstrative of the whole issue here. Traditionally, before people make wild and offensive accusations, it was normal to gather evidence. That's how the rest of the world works: you gather evidence and then you make accusations or draw conclusions from the data.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:30 PM
Online roulette is rogged.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem
Because those are the TwoPlusTwo rules.

Here's the original thread I started on the issue:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...rstars-124537/


There aren't any PokerStars employees posting under alternate names.

This issue is pretty demonstrative of the whole issue here. Traditionally, before people make wild and offensive accusations, it was normal to gather evidence. That's how the rest of the world works: you gather evidence and then you make accusations or draw conclusions from the data.
Hard to gather evidence when you have your servers behind closed doors. How about you let us hire an independent analyst to come check out your servers? Sites like to run programs that check to see what programs we use but we arent allowed to do the same to you. Where is the transparency? I have a cousin who goes to MIT. Would you be willing to let him and some of his classmates come and analyze your servers?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
Hard to gather evidence when you have your servers behind closed doors.
But as has been repeatedly discussed in this thread, the servers are not the important thing: it is the output, the hand histories, that matter. You have all the evidence you need in the form of hand histories.

Those hand histories are available to anyone - anyone can email and request a copy of every single real money hand history they've ever played in. Ironically, this little diversion arose because I was trying to assist you with that!
Quote:
How about you let us hire an independent analyst to come check out your servers?
Here are a reports by a couple of independent analysts that have already done this:

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/

Quote:
Sites like to run programs that check to see what programs we use but we arent allowed to do the same to you. Where is the transparency?
The hand histories are the evidence.

Quote:
I have a cousin who goes to MIT. Would you be willing to let him and some of his classmates come and analyze your servers?
No, because apart from the intellectual property issues involved, such a planned spot check wouldn't even assure you of what you claim to want: there's no way to prove that a pre-announced investigation like what you propose would even end up looking at the right servers. If you work on the basis that the leading online poker sites are untrustworthy, then it makes no sense to inspect the servers in a pre-arranged fashion because they could swap the servers in/out on demand.

The only way to circumvent such an effort is to look at the output data: the hand histories. They're the evidence and the records of each and every transaction.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem
Here are a reports by a couple of independent analysts that have already done this:

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/


The hand histories are the evidence.


No, because apart from the intellectual property issues involved, such a planned spot check wouldn't even assure you of what you claim to want: there's no way to prove that a pre-announced investigation like what you propose would even end up looking at the right servers. If you work on the basis that the leading online poker sites are untrustworthy, then it makes no sense to inspect the servers in a pre-arranged fashion because they could swap the servers in/out on demand.

The only way to circumvent such an effort is to look at the output data: the hand histories. They're the evidence and the records of each and every transaction.
So wait lol...Now I agree with you that you could easily swap out the servers so allowing our independent people to do a spot check would be pointless. So what exactly happened with the independent analysts that you provided that make this scenario different. Couldnt the same thing have happened with them making their conclusions irrelevant?

We need some type of department of gaming regulating everyone on a whole. Its rediculous that these sites are pulling all this money out of the worlds economy without any type of real integrity enforcement. We need somone on our payroll inside your comapny doing test on a regular baisis to make sure you are providing us with a legitiment playing enviorment. Its all setup so you guys can operate however you want without transparency and thats has to end.

Also. Did you pay those analysts for their services or did we?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 11:01 PM
Ok, im gonna go straight forward to my point.

I played in many poker sites in my life and I also play live obviously.
I've never seen somewhere where the aces fall so frequent as in Pokerstars. The aces fall like mad, how many times have u been busted with QQ or KK or JJ against a hand with an ace and the ace falls on the flop, the last times u've gotten those hands. JJ against A10 is a huge underdog in Stats imo. It's ridiculous. They say that it's an optical distorsion as we tend to outstand the ace image on the board. But man, this is so ridiculous, either u have it in your hand or it appears on the flop, the ace will always come. I doubt an ace is kept in the deck for one entire hand. Obviously I didn't make a specific analysis of this, it's just an hypothesis, but Pokerstars' is ridiculous on this matter.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sn8keChaRmer
So wait lol...Now I agree with you that you could easily swap out the servers so allowing our independent people to do a spot check would be pointless. So what exactly happened with the independent analysts that you provided that make this scenario different. Couldnt the same thing have happened with them making their conclusions irrelevant?
They reviewed the output.

Quote:
We need some type of department of gaming regulating everyone on a whole.
But that already exists? http://www.pokerstars.com/iom/

Quote:
ts rediculous that these sites are pulling all this money out of the worlds economy without any type of real integrity enforcement. We need somone on our payroll inside your comapny doing test on a regular baisis to make sure you are providing us with a legitiment playing enviorment. Its all setup so you guys can operate however you want without transparency and thats has to end.
But that's not the case: there are independent government regulators for PokerStars.

I don't understand why you keep just "making stuff up". If you are unsure of something, it would seem more reasonable to ask the question than to keep making these false assertions (especially since you have a poker site employee like myself here and able to answer your questions).
Quote:
Also. Did you pay those analysts for their services or did we?
They were paid for by PokerStars.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReefinUp
Ok, im gonna go straight forward to my point.

I played in many poker sites in my life and I also play live obviously.
I've never seen somewhere where the aces fall so frequent as in Pokerstars. The aces fall like mad, how many times have u been busted with QQ or KK or JJ against a hand with an ace and the ace falls on the flop, the last times u've gotten those hands. JJ against A10 is a huge underdog in Stats imo. It's ridiculous. They say that it's an optical distorsion as we tend to outstand the ace image on the board. But man, this is so ridiculous, either u have it in your hand or it appears on the flop, the ace will always come. I doubt an ace is kept in the deck for one entire hand. Obviously I didn't make a specific analysis of this, it's just an hypothesis, but Pokerstars' is ridiculous on this matter.
Play all your A hands and fold KK, QQ, JJ.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
02-13-2010 , 11:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReefinUp
Ok, im gonna go straight forward to my point.

I played in many poker sites in my life and I also play live obviously.
I've never seen somewhere where the aces fall so frequent as in Pokerstars. The aces fall like mad, how many times have u been busted with QQ or KK or JJ against a hand with an ace and the ace falls on the flop, the last times u've gotten those hands. JJ against A10 is a huge underdog in Stats imo. It's ridiculous. They say that it's an optical distorsion as we tend to outstand the ace image on the board. But man, this is so ridiculous, either u have it in your hand or it appears on the flop, the ace will always come. I doubt an ace is kept in the deck for one entire hand. Obviously I didn't make a specific analysis of this, it's just an hypothesis, but Pokerstars' is ridiculous on this matter.
Gee that one has never been proven wrong before.....

sigh
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote

      
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