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Originally Posted by FlyingDutchman
So, anybody wants to take my bet on the previous page?
I agree with your bet premise and wouldn't bet against you.
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Here is an idea. How about analyzing the distribution of hands per individual player?
If poker is rigged winning players would tend to get worse hands than average and/or bad players would suck out more than average.
If that is not the case that should end this "debate" once and forever.
The hole card distribution to an individual player is known to every player who saves their hands. So far no one has ever shown a record of a statistically abnormal one (where deviations and outliers are not in the normal proportion range for sample size). So tests of targeted-player theories that involve hole card manipulation will continue to be monitored by millions of individual players.
However, there really is only one way that hole cards could even be fiddled for a targeted player group and I've described it before. It wouldn't be done by messing with the randomness of the deck/shuffle, as that would be readily apparent by checking the community cards (what is left over). The only way would be to deal all hole cards randomly, but before sending them out to individual player computers, decide who gets the best or worst starting hand based on some targeting criteria. Then send out the randomly dealt hole cards with the targeted player getting the desired hand and his original hand going to the slot where that one was taken from (which is random). Then deal the rest of the hand, including all community cards, normally. This method doesn't modify the shuffle or deal at all. But it is still readily detectable by individual players, and wouldn't work for long on a large scale.
As for suckouts, the community cards are either random or they are not. I've looked at flops and I'm working on late streets now. Schemes to somehow "keep up with" any fiddled turns or rivers and then even them out later would very quickly become unwieldy and impossible to maintain a true distribution of community cards. Simulations can show that this would quickly become chaotic, because there are far too many combinations to track. The evening-out would also have to eventually result in a fair distribution to all players over the long term, and would at best be short term shifts in results that would get cancelled out. DUCY? These are the "timing" theories, and they fall apart under scrutiny.
The luck portion of poker is more than sufficient to keep losers/fish in the game as long as possible, and you just don't see anyone winning 100ptbb/100 over time. An average that good is very rare. Skill edges in poker are not massively overwhelming like they are in games that don't have a chance element. So sites don't have to monkey with something that already works to their advantage, i.e. lady luck.
PS - thanks to those who have commented on my work (including Monty below). There's more to come. Feel free to leave comments or questions directly on my web site.
Last edited by spadebidder; 01-20-2010 at 05:43 PM.
Reason: correction to ptbb, and PS