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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,445 34.94%
No 5,522 56.00%
Undecided 893 9.06%
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Old 12-18-2009, 07:36 PM   #11276
NFuego20
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
Is this in one day?
Valid question. And my guess is no. The simple fact that the guy just simply made mention of 20-30 7-10/1 shots hitting with no reference to volume of hands played tells me he has no idea what he's talking about in terms of whether or not something funny is happening. If I was proven wrong I'd be the first to admit it.

Also, more important than days, weeks, or months, is simply how many hands were played and how many 7-10/1 shots were encountered in total.
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Old 12-18-2009, 08:11 PM   #11277
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by NFuego20 View Post
Valid question. And my guess is no. The simple fact that the guy just simply made mention of 20-30 7-10/1 shots hitting with no reference to volume of hands played tells me he has no idea what he's talking about in terms of whether or not something funny is happening. If I was proven wrong I'd be the first to admit it.

Also, more important than days, weeks, or months, is simply how many hands were played and how many 7-10/1 shots were encountered in total.
True.
I am open to seeing hand histories and facing the truth. Even if it means that I am wrong. No one has posted anything in any direction.
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Old 12-18-2009, 09:22 PM   #11278
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mii View Post
I got 31.597 hands
...
Now the strange thing that I see if I sort my starting hands by no. of times i held them i see the following cards (only off-suite ones):
52o 327 times
JTo 325 times
T5o 313 times
K2o 310 times
Q4o 308 times
A5o 307 times
96o 305 times
T8o 304 times
...
AKo 264 times
84o 261 times
AQo 261 times
J7o 260 times
K8o 260 times
85o 256 times
Q7o 247 times
73o 246 times

What I don't like is that i get 52o a lot more than let's say AKo or AQo.

It could be that my sample size is just to small. Maybe someone can calculate how big the derivation could/should be with this specific amount of data.
Each specific offsuit hand has a probability of 12/1326, so on your sample of 31597 the mean expectation for each one is 286 times. The standard deviation is sqrt(npq) where p=12/1326 and q=1/p and n=sample size. So we get SD = 17. So ~95.4% of your offsuit hands (2 SD) should fall between 320 and 252. And ~99.6% of them (3SD) should fall between 337 and 235.

Since the number of possible offsuit hands is 936, you would expect 936*(1-.996) or about 4 of them to be outside the 3SD bounds, so more than 337 or less than 235. It appears you have zero of those.

Going back to just 2SD, you would expect 936*(1-.954) or 43 of them to be outside the bounds of 252 to 320. It looks like you only have 4.

So you are much closer to a long-term random distribution than the average sample of this size.

This is why people commonly think things are unusual when they are not at all unusual.

Last edited by spadebidder; 12-18-2009 at 09:47 PM. Reason: correction
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Old 12-18-2009, 09:38 PM   #11279
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Take a lesson folks: provide some data and you might learn something! Thanks Spade!
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Old 12-18-2009, 10:04 PM   #11280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Each specific offsuit hand has a probability of 12/1326, so on your sample of 31597 the mean expectation for each one is 286 times. The standard deviation is sqrt(npq) where p=12/1326 and q=1/p and n=sample size. So we get SD = 17. So ~95.4% of your offsuit hands (2 SD) should fall between 320 and 252. And ~99.6% of them (3SD) should fall between 337 and 235.

Since the number of possible offsuit hands is 936, you would expect 936*(1-.996) or about 4 of them to be outside the 3SD bounds, so more than 337 or less than 235. It appears you have zero of those.

Going back to just 2SD, you would expect 936*(1-.954) or 43 of them to be outside the bounds of 252 to 320. It looks like you only have 4.

So you are much closer to a long-term random distribution than the average sample of this size.

This is why people commonly think things are unusual when they are not at all unusual.
Hey Spade thank you for taking the time! You are right, it was looking unusual to me. Wish I had AKo, AQo, AJo and ATo above the 3SD bound.
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Old 12-18-2009, 10:42 PM   #11281
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mii View Post
Hey Spade thank you for taking the time! You are right, it was looking unusual to me. Wish I had AKo, AQo, AJo and ATo above the 3SD bound.
Someone does, and their opponents will think it's rigged, and they will think they run like a God. The expected 4 hands (for this sample size) being above that 3SD range are random, and just as likely to be those 4 as any other 4. Unfortunately with 936 possible offsuit hands, there are 32 billion ways to pick 4 of them.
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Old 12-19-2009, 01:20 AM   #11282
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
True.
I am open to seeing hand histories and facing the truth. Even if it means that I am wrong. No one has posted anything in any direction.
As you can see above, somebody posted very specific statistics, and spade broke it down mathematically in detail. The key is that if people think something is wrong, they provide all relevant data so people can actually do something with it. Something more than just random claims and accusations.

I'd be happy to post something myself, but would anybody care if I took my last 10,000 hands and proved that something was happening within expectation? Kind of a pointless exercise.
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Old 12-19-2009, 02:30 AM   #11283
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arouet View Post
Take a lesson folks: provide some data and you might learn something! Thanks Spade!
There is a mountain of published data about the now-defunct Pokerroom site.

Start here:
http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...ard-stats.html
and here:
http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...ts-by-players/
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Old 12-19-2009, 04:30 AM   #11284
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I don't believe online poker is rigged, but when It comes to FullTilt, I am the sovereign state of Oh****istan.

I've broken my mouse at the sheer disbelief and cardrage. It's really no big deal it wasn't a nerd alert mouse by any means so no big loss.

Best one was today when I had KK UTG, raised 4x, pushed 25bb's in to, show's 68s, rivers me with a straight and says "Noob". My GF was sitting next to me and just said "Cash out" and walked away. Heh. She was doing her nails and I told her it was her fault because of nail polish fumes. Good times followed "It's not my fault you suck at poker squawk squawk squawk".

It's only 30k or so hands but ffs it's def. consistent and often. I'm also not wearing a foil hat and yelling conspiracy either. So with that said, when I'm done clearing the bonus, I'm switching back to Stars, or back to Cake. <Shrugs> Life
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Old 12-19-2009, 05:16 AM   #11285
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by InSovietRussia View Post
Best one was today when I had KK UTG, raised 4x, pushed 25bb's in to, show's 68s, rivers me with a straight and says "Noob".
At which point you should have had a big smile on your face and been thinking: "God, I'm going to take so much money of this idiot".

Quote:
My GF was sitting next to me and just said "Cash out" and walked away. ... Good times followed "It's not my fault you suck at poker squawk squawk squawk".
Sounds as if you should heed your g/f - she sounds like a smart cookie.
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Old 12-19-2009, 09:49 AM   #11286
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jabbershot View Post
There is a mountain of published data about the now-defunct Pokerroom site.

Start here:
http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...ard-stats.html
and here:
http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker...ts-by-players/
Yep, I used some of their data when I first started learning about starting hand ranks.
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Old 12-19-2009, 04:22 PM   #11287
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Yep, I used some of their data when I first started learning about starting hand ranks.
Guess noone have a doubt that this stats are random on any site.

Noone will be so silly to rigg such stats, its more important how many times a hand get a perfect flop for max. action like AA 78 and flop 910 or 78 or 56.
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Old 12-19-2009, 04:36 PM   #11288
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

lol...

Why don't you come up with a rigged theory, picking something pretty specific, and then test it. Then get back to us. Enough baseless accusations already. It's not rigged. Show me otherwise, please.

You see one flop like this and instantly probably think the games are rigged. They'd be rigged if flops like this never occurred. What the hell do you expect to see?
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Old 12-19-2009, 08:01 PM   #11289
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by qpw View Post
At which point you should have had a big smile on your face and been thinking: "God, I'm going to take so much money of this idiot".



Sounds as if you should heed your g/f - she sounds like a smart cookie.
No sense of humor, just a baseless needle. You and the 66 guy should get together. Speaking of which, why would I have a smile on my face?

This little idea that floats around that these people that do this kinda stuff stick around and do it over and over is mostly incorrect. They do it and run, never to be seen again pretty much. (At least at 50NL)
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Old 12-19-2009, 08:24 PM   #11290
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20 View Post
lol...

Why don't you come up with a rigged theory, picking something pretty specific, and then test it. Then get back to us. Enough baseless accusations already. It's not rigged. Show me otherwise, please.

You see one flop like this and instantly probably think the games are rigged. They'd be rigged if flops like this never occurred. What the hell do you expect to see?
You cant test something if you dont have all informations.

If a site rigg the game i am pretty sure that you need all wholecards to find the secret.

Form me its interesting to see a analyse but not important, i moved from poker to stockmarket 2 years ago. " My poker " died in 2007 there is no really good bonusoffer that make it worth to waste 80-90 hours / month
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Old 12-19-2009, 09:52 PM   #11291
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by InSovietRussia View Post

This little idea that floats around that these people that do this kinda stuff stick around and do it over and over is mostly incorrect. They do it and run, never to be seen again pretty much. (At least at 50NL)
You're saying most the time a fish wins a big pot they just get up and cash out, and never play again? That's pretty ridiculous. Use the search function ffs.
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Old 12-20-2009, 01:53 AM   #11292
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by solucky View Post
You cant test something if you dont have all informations.

If a site rigg the game i am pretty sure that you need all wholecards to find the secret.
No, you don't.
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Old 12-20-2009, 05:06 AM   #11293
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by InSovietRussia View Post
No sense of humor
You haven't? Sorry to hear that as it does make life so much more enjoyable.

Quote:
You and the 66 guy should get together.
Some cultural reference?

Quote:
Speaking of which, why would I have a smile on my face?
Because if you had the slightest clue about probability you would know that it's people like your nemesis who donate most of the money to those of us who can actually play.

Quote:
This little idea that floats around that these people that do this kinda stuff stick around and do it over and over is mostly incorrect. They do it and run, never to be seen again pretty much. (At least at 50NL)
Again, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the way poker and probability fit together.

Have a good think about it: Do you really believe that there are a succession of truly awful players who pop up and make money with useless cards without losing even more before and/or afterwards?
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Old 12-20-2009, 05:08 AM   #11294
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by solucky View Post
If a site rigg the game i am pretty sure that you need all wholecards to find the secret.
Is this some kind of organic deck?

Heavy to play with but much better for you.

Quote:
My poker " died in 2007 there is no really good bonusoffer that make it worth to waste 80-90 hours / month
You should have learned to play.
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Old 12-20-2009, 05:45 PM   #11295
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

The people from Niger said the poker database wasnt stable before the reading process, do you ever heard about that? I was investigating and I was very sure that any database could be mostly bestly trusted from the beggining with. From germany I heard the same thing, some database from some random poker room wasnt trusted from the beggining with X, but only with Y. Not pokerstars for sure but maybe from FT? Not sure.
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Old 12-20-2009, 06:46 PM   #11296
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

wat?
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Old 12-20-2009, 07:10 PM   #11297
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

ESL FTL
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Old 12-20-2009, 07:36 PM   #11298
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
The people from Niger said the poker database wasnt stable before the reading process, do you ever heard about that? I was investigating and I was very sure that any database could be mostly bestly trusted from the beggining with. From germany I heard the same thing, some database from some random poker room wasnt trusted from the beggining with X, but only with Y. Not pokerstars for sure but maybe from FT? Not sure.
All your base are belong to us.
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Old 12-20-2009, 08:00 PM   #11299
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by qpw View Post
All your base are belong to us.
Could you please verify that information, because as I said none database beggining with X is being told to be trusted. Bestly and mostly I would like get some password verification as my investigation AND the german is still going on. I repeat, its from a random poker room perhaps FTP or some other room like that.
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Old 12-20-2009, 08:07 PM   #11300
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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All your base are belong to us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Could you please verify that information, because as I said none database beggining with X is being told to be trusted. Bestly and mostly I would like get some password verification as my investigation AND the german is still going on. I repeat, its from a random poker room perhaps FTP or some other room like that.
Now that HAS to be a level!
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