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Old 12-12-2009, 09:00 AM   #11051
spadebidder
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Re: Monster Draws on PokerStars

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
His 974 hand sample is MORE than enough to conclude that something is not right in the shuffle, if his methodology was right.
It wasn't.
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Old 12-12-2009, 09:45 AM   #11052
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Re: Monster Draws on PokerStars

In English? I know you're saying the sample size is enough, but what does binomial variable and p mean and how do you get 0.319?
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Old 12-12-2009, 09:58 AM   #11053
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Re: Monster Draws on PokerStars

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Originally Posted by SwedishMedusa View Post
In English? I know you're saying the sample size is enough, but what does binomial variable and p mean and how do you get 0.319?
A binomial variable is repeating a 'bernouilli trial' multiple times. A 'bernouilli trial' is a single experiment that has a binary outcome - success/failure, yes/no, 0/1 or whatever you like. The probability of success of each trial is identical in each, and denoted by p, the number of trials is denoted by n.

Here there are 15 cards that help (9 flush cards + 8 straight cards - 2 cards that complete both and thus have been counted twice). There are 47 unknown cards in total (52 - 2 in the players hand - 3 on the flop). So the chance of hitting at least one of the two draws is 15/47 = 0.319.

If we have a binomial variable with probability of success p, and n trials, the total number of successes will have mean np, and standard deviation sqrt(np(1-p)).

Last edited by Pyromantha; 12-12-2009 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 12-12-2009, 10:00 AM   #11054
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Re: Monster Draws on PokerStars

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
It wasn't.
Indeed, there are two likely faults that I mentioned in the post above that one.

In this thread recently there have been at least two others who failed to take into account fault b), that is that they are counting some hands where an additional card was never dealt and thus their draw could not possibly have come in.

I suspect this chap has done the same thing, if he filters for only hands that actually saw a turn he should get the right numbers.
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Old 12-12-2009, 10:39 AM   #11055
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Rounding4Rent View Post
I'd bet money I've probably played more hands and won more than all 3 combined online... Where does your credibility lye?
Little Stevie is offering a prop bet AND questioning peoples' credibility?

wow.
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Old 12-12-2009, 11:00 AM   #11056
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Gah, someone post a theory about satanic sets of 6s winning too much or something before the genuine stats people get out of control here with their double exponential smoothing style chat.
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Old 12-12-2009, 12:22 PM   #11057
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Re: Monster Draws on PokerStars

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
A binomial variable is repeating a 'bernouilli trial' multiple times. A 'bernouilli trial' is a single experiment that has a binary outcome - success/failure, yes/no, 0/1 or whatever you like. The probability of success of each trial is identical in each, and denoted by p, the number of trials is denoted by n.

Here there are 15 cards that help (9 flush cards + 8 straight cards - 2 cards that complete both and thus have been counted twice). There are 47 unknown cards in total (52 - 2 in the players hand - 3 on the flop). So the chance of hitting at least one of the two draws is 15/47 = 0.319.

If we have a binomial variable with probability of success p, and n trials, the total number of successes will have mean np, and standard deviation sqrt(np(1-p)).
thanks for explainaing! (should have realized where .319 came from though)
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Old 12-12-2009, 12:36 PM   #11058
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Yes, methodology has flaws and I was hoping to get help to point this out, as well as with the statistical analysis and I appreciate the thoughtful responses.

Ok, let's see if anyone can follow this:

PT3 filter:

Flush Draw on flop = 1864

Flush Draw AND no backdoor = 1864

so, "no backdoor" is not necessary. But, it is necessary to filter out backdoor straight draws. So . . .

Saw flop
Saw turn
6 max: .05/.1 - 3/6
Flush draw AND straight draw, open ended on flop

=60 hands (only 60 out of 165,000!!)

Saw flop
Saw turn
6 max: .05/.1 - 3/6
Flush draw AND straight draw, open ended on flop
Flush on turn OR straight on turn

=18 hands

18/60 = 30%

This looks right to me, let me know if there are any holes in this methodology. I'm surprised that flopping a monster draw like this and then seeing the turn happens that few times, but not that surprised I guess. Does anyone know, or at least know how to figure out, or where to find out the odds of flopping these monster draws? Anyway . . .

Let's add double gutshots:

Saw flop
Saw turn
6 max: .05/.1 - 3/6
Flush draw AND (straight draw, open ended on flop OR straight draw, double gutshot)

=67

. . . # times hit:

=20

20/67 = 29.8%

This makes more sense and appreciate the help with tweaking the filters and explaination of the math. Exactly what I am looking for.

Last edited by dtigersd; 12-12-2009 at 12:42 PM.
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Old 12-12-2009, 12:39 PM   #11059
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fat View Post
Wow...overreact much? You can't see how your error was mildly amusing?
Yes. I can also see how my overreaction is mildly amusing as well.
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Old 12-12-2009, 01:25 PM   #11060
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by LVGambler View Post
First of all, this would NEVER be considered anything remotely close to a "a little tidbit" (if it were true).

Second, you didn't mind throwing Mike Matusow's name out there when you could've just said a "particular FullTilt pro" (since obviously you have no proof and this could be considered slander). Why did you do that? Why don't you give us your real name and some contact info? Why didn't you (at least) say what your friend's name was? Is he a coward? Is he not seeking justice?

You do see where I'm going with all of this, right? You come on here and bash Mike Matusow with no proof whatsoever while you and your friend still remain anonymous. You guys sound like a bunch of lying pussies to me.

And I don't even really like Mike. But still..
im not slandering mike everyone take your panties out of your bundles. im sure fulltilt owns their names on their sites and can go as they want with it, as im sure mike had no idea and nothing against him.

god forbid anyone give a story they have of something that goes against what you think haha. but think what you want, i just thought id share a
story.

and yes ive takn into consideration someone else couldnve been playing under his name, but come on lets not be so nieve, did mike really want someone putting 30K of his money at risk? idk but im going with the ladder and saying its a bot.

i think the whole online thing is a scam in some way or another. i stay away but i have the luxury of a casino near me.
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Old 12-12-2009, 01:29 PM   #11061
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
I'm pretty sure if FullTilt heard that Mike Matusow's avatar was on a final table in the Sunday tourney and he was seen at the same time playing live in Vegas (without a laptop in hand), he'd lose his endorsement deal immediately. I know he's been pretty stupid before, but still...
please open your eyes and read a post accurately before posting you nit.

he won the toury as said. moneys on account. playes mike later. loses to him with lower quads. not in the tourny.

again are you that nieve to believe that fulltilt who owns these names wont do as they please with it?
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Old 12-12-2009, 01:49 PM   #11062
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by rizasutton View Post
please open your eyes and read a post accurately before posting you nit.

he won the toury as said. moneys on account. playes mike later. loses to him with lower quads. not in the tourny.

again are you that nieve to believe that fulltilt who owns these names wont do as they please with it?
Please learn to spell, punctuate and capitalise correctly before insulting other posters.

That way you will look less of a twerp.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:01 PM   #11063
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by qpw View Post
Please learn to spell, punctuate and capitalise correctly before insulting other posters.

That way you will look less of a twerp.
for whatever it is worth, i am not on this site to practice my spelliing or punctuation. but if you are thats cool. the insultes flamed first towards my post. its as if i have something opposing what others think is wrong. i simply shared a story, as was simply shut down.

now enough on the flaming and take the story for what is worth.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:13 PM   #11064
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by rizasutton View Post
for whatever it is worth, i am not on this site to practice my spelliing or punctuation.
Well, perhaps you could get it right somewhere else before coming here to insult other forum members?

Quote:
now enough on the flaming and take the story for what is worth.
Which is: 'Not A Lot'.
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:27 PM   #11065
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by qpw View Post
Which is: 'Nothing'.
FYP
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Old 12-12-2009, 02:31 PM   #11066
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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FYP
Thanks.

I knew it wasn't quite right.
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Old 12-12-2009, 04:40 PM   #11067
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by dtigersd View Post

=60 hands (only 60 out of 165,000!!)
That doesn't sound totally unreasonable to me but someone who is quicker at combinatorics can probably estimate it.
It seems to get pretty messy pretty quickly, as you need to consider suited or unsuited holdings separately.

If unsuited the card ranks matter since an Ace cannot make an OESD+FD, a deuce can in exactly 1 way, a three in 2 ways, a 4 in 3 ways, a 5-10 in 4 ways etc.

If suited then the card ranks and the gap between them matters.

I don't have the energy to attempt to figure the probability of flopping an OESD+FD at the moment, and you would still need to filter for flops seen as a lot of those 165000 hands never get chance to hit an OESD+FD because no flop is dealt, and then it depends on what type of hands you play in what frequencies - a rock who only plays AA and folds every other hand will never flop an OESD+FD

Quote:
This makes more sense and appreciate the help with tweaking the filters and explaination of the math. Exactly what I am looking for.
Yeah, the numbers look to be very reasonable now, although filtering has caused your sample to be so small that it's actually surprising your observed statistic matched the expected so closely !
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Old 12-12-2009, 05:50 PM   #11068
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by qpw View Post
Well, perhaps you could get it right somewhere else before coming here to insult other forum members?



Which is: 'Not A Lot'.
get what right?? the stories accurate.

maybe one day i can strive to be like you and actually give a hoot how i type on a forum online. if wanted to be accurate id go on my word application type it out then send it over to you for editing then let you post it for me? hows that sound professor lol.

and once again flaming started with my post,i posted then the remarks came. excuse me for getting alittle touchy. maybe you can give me a hug and make me feel better about my one post dad. most likely great great grandad at that. so take your self fullfilling remarks with nothing to do with anything at hand to microsoft word and battle it out.

you must be a die hard online does not have bots its legit bla bla bla. well thats fine im not here to change your mind. well maybe about getting a word application so you can gave a debate with your computer on how to type. that sounds like fun. but id rather stick with the subject at hand and have a normal conversation, rather than hear from the likes of your comments.

bon dia
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Old 12-12-2009, 05:56 PM   #11069
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

So a long time ago, Momma told me if I traveled to for California from Ohio, I'd move back in time 3-4 hours.

So what if Mike Matusow played the live session in Vegas, got on a boat/plane, and moved west another 3-4 hours and then began his online poker session?!

Thus, leaving the impression that he was playing live and online at the same time!
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Old 12-12-2009, 06:13 PM   #11070
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by rizasutton View Post
maybe one day i can strive to be like you and actually give a hoot how i type on a forum online.
While you will never see me being one to nit over spelling (except maybe loose vs lose), you should consider that when you write in an incoherent manner (as you do) it takes a lot away from what you are trying to say. If others need to spend time figuring out what you are even trying to say then your message gets lost in the shuffle.

It, along with your basic emotional reactions, also makes all of the weird claims you have made seem that much more a product of an active imagination.
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Old 12-12-2009, 06:17 PM   #11071
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by tk1133 View Post
So a long time ago, Momma told me if I traveled to for California from Ohio, I'd move back in time 3-4 hours.

So what if Mike Matusow played the live session in Vegas, got on a boat/plane, and moved west another 3-4 hours and then began his online poker session?!

Thus, leaving the impression that he was playing live and online at the same time!
How exactly do you leave LV via boat?
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Old 12-12-2009, 06:57 PM   #11072
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Old 12-12-2009, 07:18 PM   #11073
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition



imo
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Old 12-12-2009, 07:36 PM   #11074
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

^ lol
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Old 12-13-2009, 05:38 AM   #11075
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
It, along with your basic emotional reactions, also makes all of the weird claims you have made seem that much more a product of an overactive imagination.
FYP.
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