Quote:
Originally Posted by dtigersd
=60 hands (only 60 out of 165,000!!)
That doesn't sound totally unreasonable to me but someone who is quicker at combinatorics can probably estimate it.
It seems to get pretty messy pretty quickly, as you need to consider suited or unsuited holdings separately.
If unsuited the card ranks matter since an Ace cannot make an OESD+FD, a deuce can in exactly 1 way, a three in 2 ways, a 4 in 3 ways, a 5-10 in 4 ways etc.
If suited then the card ranks and the gap between them matters.
I don't have the energy to attempt to figure the probability of flopping an OESD+FD at the moment, and you would still need to filter for flops seen as a lot of those 165000 hands never get chance to hit an OESD+FD because no flop is dealt, and then it depends on what type of hands you play in what frequencies - a rock who only plays AA and folds every other hand will never flop an OESD+FD
Quote:
This makes more sense and appreciate the help with tweaking the filters and explaination of the math. Exactly what I am looking for.
Yeah, the numbers look to be very reasonable now, although filtering has caused your sample to be so small that it's actually surprising your observed statistic matched the expected so closely !